TendencyForex's Inlägg - sida 2

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:58

3y yields jumped around 13bps while OIS rates climbed 10bps in a knee-jerk reaction. The moves quickly unwound, which suggests to markets suspect this may be a month-end phenomena, where unusual fixes are often seen in other markets. However, expect heightened focus on this print in coming sessions to determine whether it is indeed temporary.

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:58

AUD saw a brief tick higher as a higher cash rate fix, drove a sharp but short-lived repricing of OIS rates. RBA overnight cash rate jumped 4bps to 0.09% for March 31, just 1bp below the cash target rate, a shock for the market given it hasn’t budged more than 1bp per day since November 2020.

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:57

Meanwhile, JGB yields snapped lower in a frenetic start to trading which saw 30y drop as much as 8bps, before paring most of the move. The reset following the BoJ’s beefed up scheduled for bond buying for Q2, released after the close on Thursday, in the latest effort to pin yields.

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:57

JPY (-0.7%) came under pressure in early trade as rate differentials come back into play with volumes running 20% above average, according to our eTrading team, bucking the trend with sharp drops in activity elsewhere.

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:55

There were no surprises from OPEC+ on Thursday which indicated oil reserves will be raised by 432,000-bpd in May, as was planned last July, according to a press release.

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:54

Japan’s trade minister said on Friday they will “act accordingly,” though added Japan is so far unclear on exactly how the US expect allies to support the SPR, according the Bloomberg report. IEA is set to hold an extraordinary meeting on Friday from 08:00 EDT, reports Reuters, to “discuss the impacts of the collective action and assess the current oil market situation.”

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:54

Oil has stabilized around $100 for now. After President Joe Biden’s announcement to release 180mn barrels of crude from reserves starting from May. Focus is turning to the response from the international community. Biden did say he is waiting to see exactly how many barrels of oil allies will release from supplies, speculating it could be between 30-50mn.

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:53

US payrolls data ahead, with rates vol markets already elevated in anticipation, though first we also watch Eurozone CPI for EUR, which carries firm upside risks to the Bloomberg consensus following the country level data. There are also a slew of cross-regional S&P PMIs/CPIs. For energy markets, the IEA energy meeting gets underway in the NY morning. Elsewhere, economic data appears for CLP, BRL, and KRW.

Razor EA på Trading System Apr 01, 2022 at 08:53

JPY is back under pressure after a brief interruption heading into month-end. Early selling in Treasuries and catch-up rally in Japan bonds after BoJ’s beefed up quarterly buying plan released on Thursday put yield differentials front and center again. Away from JPY, activity was poor, with our eTrading team seeing flows down around 20% as Friday fatigue and upcoming US payroll print damps risk taking. AUD saw a brief bounce as jump in RBA cash rate fix spurred a knee-jerk selloff across the front-end, which prompted retraced. USDAsia has seen muted price. CNH was unresponsive as markets...

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:40

COP: Overnight Lending Rate at 19:00 BST. Citi Economics expects Banrep to increase policy rates by 150bps. This would imply an acceleration from the 100bp hike undertaken back in January. Inflation has surprised on the upside twice since then, leading inflation expectations to rise as a result, with inflation expectations for 2023 already sitting on the 4% target band ceiling. In addition, new headwinds for inflation are emerging, which should prompt the Board to take a preemptive approach to adjusting their policy stance.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:40

CZK: Repurchase Rate at 13:30 BST. Citi Economics expects a hike of 50bps to 5.00%, and a further 25bp hike in May. However, they note that the market pricing and resilient euro area PMIs represent a risk of larger 75bp hike.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:40

HKD: Retail Sales Value YoY at 09:30 BST for February. Citi Economics expects a print of -34.9% YoY vs 4.1% YoY prior. February retail sales are likely to be severely affected by COVID-19 resurgence/restrictions.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:40

HUF: One-Week Deposit Rate at 08:00 BST. Citi Economics expects an additional ~120bps of hikes in the one-week deposit rate prior to the next policy rate meeting April 26. This would imply weekly 30bp hikes from the NBH, which so far seem to have stabilized HUF.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:39

CAD: GDP YoY at 13:30 BST for January. Despite some of the most substantial lockdowns of the Omicron wave lasting throughout most of the month in January, Citi Economics expects a solid 0.3%MoM increase in GDP by industry. We also expect strength in various goods producing industries like construction. Note that CFIB Business Barometer is also on the agenda at 13:30 BST for March. Our economists see this survey as the most useful survey measure of activity in Canada, prior to the quarterly Business Outlook Survey released by the BoC in a few weeks.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:38

EUR: Signs of inflation in labor markets following yesterday’s hot German CPI print: – France CPI YoY at 07:45 BST for March P. Citi Economics expects a below-consensus print of 4.3%YoY in March vs 3.6%YoY prior (4.8%YoY consensus expectation). France has been better shielded from commodity price pressures, though the likelihood for prices to push higher still increases the probability that inflation should continue to grow across the Eurozone. We watch Eurozone CPI Thursday. – Eurozone Unemployment Rate at 10:00 BST for February. Citi Economics expects job growth to remain s...

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:38

CHF: Retail Sales Real YoY at 07:30 BST for February, with SNB's Maechler T. Moser speaking at a Money Market Event at 17:00 BST. February retail sales may remain firm, with little impact by the current geopolitical conflict, while comments from SNB officials may reiterate the unsurprisingly dovish decision reached in last week’s meeting. We continue to expect the SNB to use FX intervention to address inflationary pressures as opposed to rate hikes.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:37

GBP: UK Quarterly National Accounts and GDP for Q4 at 07:00 BST. Citi Economics expects limited headline revision in the UK National Accounts. However, the two features of this release that we think will be most interesting are 1) the scale of the reduction in the household savings rate and 2) developments in the current account. Both will remain key questions for the economic cycle ahead, with our economists projecting another deterioration in the current account (-GBP23.4bn vs -GBP24.4bn prior) and a further sharp fall in household savings (6.4%QoQ in Q4 vs 8.3%QoQ prior).

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:37

USD: Data and speak unlikely to move markets as we wait for NFP – Initial Jobless & Continuing Claims at 13:30 BST. Very low initial and continuing jobless claims are an encouraging sign for the near-term strength of the labor market that should continue to provide cover for the Fed to turn notably more hawkish over the coming months. Citi Economics expects initial claims to remain low at 190k for the week ending March 26 and for continuing claims to fall modestly further to 1335k for the week of March 19. – PCE Deflator MoM at 13:30 BST for February. Citi Economics expects cor...

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:35

Looking ahead, Biden will also be speaking at the White House at 18:30 BST on his efforts to lower gasoline prices. We also look forward to the OPEC+ meeting today beginning 13:00 BST, where a planned supply increase of 432k bpd is expected to be ratified. We expect headlines soon after, with recent meetings having been short.

Razor EA på Trading System Mar 31, 2022 at 09:35

Oil: According to the article mentioned earlier, the total release may be as much as 180mn barrels, in comparison to the past two releases of 50mn and 30mn respectively from the SPR. These plans may be accompanied by a global release due to efforts by the IEA, although the article notes a final decision has yet to be made on the global release.

EURUSD	1.08811	GBPUSD	1.27923	AUDUSD	0.66535
USDJPY	156.214	USDCAD	1.36838	USDCHF	0.89173

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