ATFX Market Outlook 9th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th September 2025

Gold Soars to Record $3,600 as France Faces Political Turmoil

Market HighlightThe Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high on Monday, supported by substantial gains in Broadcom. The S&P 500 also advanced as investors bet the Federal Reserve will soon lower borrowing costs to support growth. The Dow Jones rose 0.25%, the S&P 500 gained 0.21%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.45%.

The US Dollar extended its decline after Friday’s weak jobs report all but confirmed a September Fed rate cut. The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% to 97.51. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal failed to win a parliamentary confidence vote and will resign, though the euro showed only a muted reaction, with EUR/USD rising 0.38% to 1.1762 in New York trading. USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 147.51, while GBP/USD gained 0.27% to 1.3543.

Gold broke above the $3,600/oz level for the first time, hitting a record high as weak US labor market data reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. Spot gold surged 1.37% to settle at $3,635.36, after reaching an intraday all-time high of $3,646.29. Oil prices also closed higher, recovering part of last week’s losses after OPEC+ opted for only a modest output increase and as investors weighed the possibility of further sanctions on Russian crude.

Key Outlook

Tuesday’s economic calendar is relatively light. The US will release the August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, with markets watching whether it can hold above 100, signaling a positive outlook. Small businesses are a key driver of the US economy, and this index provides a gauge of overall economic momentum. A strong reading could boost market sentiment. Attention will also be on the benchmark revision of the 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls, as any significant adjustment could affect expectations for Fed policy easing and confidence in the US economy.

Key Data and Events Today:

18:00 US Small Business Optimism Index **

22:00 US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision **

Tomorrow:

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***  

09:30 CN CPI YoY AUG **  

20:30 US PPI MoM AUG **  

22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1801/1.1817

· Support: 1.1736/1.1717

EUR/USD trades near 1.1770 after France’s government lost a confidence vote, though the euro’s reaction was limited. Technically, the pair has broken above the 1.1736 resistance and is eyeing 1.1801, with pullbacks likely to find support at 1.1736 before another leg higher. The ECB decision on Thursday will be the key catalyst.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3602/1.3635

· Support: 1.3492/1.3466

GBP/USD trades around 1.3560 as dollar weakness from soft NFP supports the pair, but UK fiscal concerns cap upside. Technically, price is trending higher above 1.3492 support, eyeing 1.3602 resistance. A sustained break above 1.3602 would open room toward 1.3635 - 1.3650.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.85/148.15

· Support: 146.57/146.27

USD/JPY trades near 147.3 as Japan PM Ishiba’s resignation fuels Japanese political uncertainty. Fed rate cut bets cap USD strength, keeping the pair within an ascending range. Key support lies at 146.57, while resistance is seen at 147.85.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 62.95/63.40

· Support: 61.75/61.40

WTI rebounds to $62.3 after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected output hike, easing oversupply fears. Meanwhile, potential new sanctions on Russian oil keep the market supported. Key resistance is $62.95, while support lies near $61.75.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3676/3696

· Support: 3610/3585

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 41.83/42.03

· Support: 40.72/40.52

Gold hit a record high at $3,646 before consolidating near $3,631, supported by weak US jobs data and strong Fed rate cut expectations. Analysts highlight potential upside toward $3,700–$3,730, with $3,610 as key support.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45659/45841

· Support: 45250/45065

The Dow Futures rose 0.25% to 45,515, with price consolidating within the 45,250–45,659 range. The index is testing the upper boundary, and a sustained breakout above 45,659 could extend gains, while failure to hold may trigger a pullback toward 45,250 support.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23969/24085

· Support: 23586/23468

NAS100 gained 0.45%, reaching a fresh record high, boosted by Broadcom’s AI-driven revenue surge. Technically, the price has broken above the descending trendline and is consolidating near 23,775. Sustained strength above 23,586 keeps momentum bullish, with upside potential towards 23,969.

BTC

· Resistance: 113545/114742

· Support: 109668/ 108451

BTC/USD is trading near $111,500 and is now retesting the ascending trendline support. The structure suggests a bearish bias as long as the price stays capped below 112,000 and a breakout of the ascending trendline support, with potential downside targeting 109,668. Only a recovery above 113,545 would negate the bearish setup.

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