Pound in Focus Ahead of UK Retail Sales as Majors Brace for Data | 5th September 2025

UK Retail Sales Ahead

FX markets are setting up for a pivotal session as traders turn their attention to the upcoming UK Retail Sales report, which could provide fresh direction for the Pound. The GBP/USD pair sits in focus, with market participants weighing the potential impact of consumer activity on Bank of England policy outlook. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen holds recent gains on solid domestic data, while the Euro and Canadian Dollar await critical releases in GDP and jobs. Broader sentiment remains cautious as expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to pressure the US Dollar, setting the stage for volatility ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The UK Retail Sales report is scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT today, with expectations of a 0.2% MoM increase, down from June’s 0.9%, and core retail sales projected to rise by 0.4% MoM and 1.2% YoY, softer than prior readings. A stronger-than-expected outcome could bolster the Pound, while a weak print may limit reaction since markets are bracing for the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls later in the day.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Current geopolitical tensions have limited direct impact ahead of today’s key data.

US Economic Data: The NFP report will be a major event influencing USD strength.

FOMC Outcome: Fed cut expectations stay elevated, potentially reducing USD support.

Trade Policy: No notable developments; focus remains squarely on data-driven sentiment.

Monetary Policy: A robust retail sales print may ease doubts about the BoE’s stance, offering support to GBP.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-cautious in the 1.3400–1.3500 range.

Resistance: 1.3440–1.3460 (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement, 100-day SMA).

Support: 1.3350–1.3380 and then 1.3300 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).

Forecast: A strong retail number might push GBP/USD toward 1.3460–1.3500. Conversely, a miss could see it slip back toward 1.3350.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic toward GBP, with traders split between domestic data strength and broader global risk factors.

Catalysts: UK Retail Sales at 06:00 GMT, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, and looming Fiscal Policy risks in the UK.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) strengthened on Friday, bolstered by upbeat domestic data showing positive real wages and stronger-than-expected household spending. At the same time, the USD came under pressure from growing Fed rate cut bets ahead of the US NFP report. These developments combined to reinforce the Yen’s appeal.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: A supportive backdrop from easing trade tensions—highlighted by eased US auto tariffs—further supports the JPY.

US Economic Data: Softer labor market data enhances expectations of upcoming Fed cuts, reducing USD strength.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish leanings from the Fed continue to underpin JPY gains via USD weakness.

Trade Policy: Any easing in policies toward Japanese exporters—or reduced tariffs—adds favorable sentiment for the Yen.

Monetary Policy: Divergence between a cautious BoJ and a potential easing Fed boosts JPY attractiveness in yield-sensitive trades.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish momentum evident as the pair moves lower against USD.

Resistance: 147.50 → 148.20

Support: 147.00 → 146.50

Forecast: If the weak USD trend persists, USD/JPY could test 147.00 and potentially dip toward 146.50, though an upside bounce toward 148.20 remains possible if risk sentiment shifts.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Positive for JPY amid policy uncertainty in the U.S. and anticipation of weaker NFP data.

Catalysts: Watch for NFP results, BoJ commentary, US wage data, and geopolitical developments.

US Dollar Index Forecast (DXY)

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index (DXY) softened toward 98.00 as markets increasingly priced in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Softer US labor data has heightened these expectations, putting pressure on the greenback ahead of today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Elevated global uncertainty is typically supportive of the USD, but dovish Fed expectations are currently outweighing safe-haven buying.

US Economic Data: Recent labor market softness has fueled rate-cut speculation—markets now assign nearly a 100% chance of a Fed cut this month.

FOMC Outcome: Comments from Fed officials suggest cautious easing is on the horizon, limiting the dollar’s near-term upside.

Trade Policy: No significant updates; trade remains a muted driver for DXY today.

Monetary Policy: A dovish Fed stance strengthens expectations for rate cuts, underpinning USD weakness.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Softening, with downward momentum as rate-cut odds climb.

Resistance: 98.30 → 98.60

Support: 97.80 → 97.50

Forecast: A decisive break below 98.00 may pave the way toward 97.50. Conversely, strong nonfarm payroll data could pause the decline and retest resistance levels. 

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish on the dollar amid growth concerns and Fed easing bets.

Catalysts: U.S. NFP data, ADP employment numbers, Fed commentary, and updated rate expectations.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The USD/CAD edged lower toward 1.3800 as traders positioned ahead of the key U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Softer expectations for U.S. jobs growth, coupled with ongoing Fed rate cut bets, weighed on the greenback. Meanwhile, stable oil prices provided some modest support to the Canadian Dollar.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Broader market uncertainty is limiting CAD’s upside, though it remains tied closely to energy sentiment.

US Economic Data: Traders are cautious ahead of NFP; weak data could reinforce Fed cut bets and push USD/CAD lower.

FOMC Outcome: Market consensus expects a rate cut this month, keeping USD under pressure.

Trade Policy: No new developments; neutral for the pair at present.

Monetary Policy: Diverging outlooks between the Fed (dovish tilt) and the Bank of Canada (on hold for now) may support relative CAD strength.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish bias near-term, with downside momentum building below 1.3850.

Resistance: 1.3840 → 1.3880

Support: 1.3780 → 1.3740

Forecast: A break below 1.3780 could accelerate losses toward 1.3740, while upbeat U.S. jobs data could trigger a rebound above 1.3850.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish on USD/CAD as NFP looms.

Catalysts: U.S. NFP report, Canadian trade balance data, oil price swings, and Fed commentary.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The EUR/USD edged higher above 1.1650 as traders await the release of Q2 Eurozone GDP data. The pair has benefited from renewed USD weakness driven by Fed rate cut expectations, while optimism around Eurozone growth is lending additional support.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited impact for now, though ongoing global growth concerns could influence sentiment.

US Economic Data: Anticipation of NFP keeps USD on the defensive; weaker results could further pressure the Dollar.

FOMC Outcome: Markets are leaning toward a Fed rate cut, reinforcing bearish USD flows.

Trade Policy: Neutral at present, no major announcements affecting the Euro.

Monetary Policy: The ECB remains cautious; GDP results could shape expectations for future easing or tightening.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish momentum as long as price holds above 1.1620.

Resistance: 1.1680 → 1.1720

Support: 1.1620 → 1.1580

Forecast: A strong Eurozone GDP print could propel EUR/USD toward 1.1720, while weaker data may trigger a retreat below 1.1620.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Moderately bullish, supported by Dollar softness and growth optimism in the Eurozone.

Catalysts: Q2 Eurozone GDP release, U.S. NFP, Fed rate cut signals, and Eurozone retail sales.

Wrap-up

The day ahead is poised to bring renewed momentum across major FX pairs as traders navigate a mix of economic releases and shifting policy expectations. With the Pound’s trajectory hinging on Retail Sales, the Eurozone GDP update, and the US NFP looming, the market narrative remains data-driven. Risk sentiment is fragile as uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path persists, keeping investors alert to surprises. As the week progresses, currencies are likely to trade in ranges until clearer signals emerge from the data slate, with opportunities favoring those ready to adjust quickly to changing fundamentals.

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