ATFX Market Outlook 25th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 25th April 2025

Gold Regains Ground Above $3,300 as Tariff Tensions Linger

Market HighlightU.S. initial jobless claims rose only slightly last week, suggesting that the labour market remains resilient despite the uncertainty caused by chaotic trade policies. Federal Reserve officials stated in interviews that they see no need to adjust monetary policy and are seeking more information on how President Trump’s trade tariffs might affect the broader economy.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, marking their third consecutive day of gains, supported by strong performances from tech stocks. Investors weighed a mix of corporate earnings results and monitored signs of potential progress in the U.S.-China tariff standoff. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 500 climbed 2%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.7%. The U.S. dollar broadly weakened as investors’ optimism about trade war de-escalation faded, with pessimism resurfacing due to a lack of meaningful progress in U.S.-China negotiations.

Gold prices rebounded on Thursday, rising 1.9% to $3,348.23 per ounce after dropping over 3% in the previous session. A weaker dollar and bargain hunting drove the recovery. Market attention remains focused on the latest developments in U.S.-China trade relations. Oil prices increased as investors weighed various factors, including dollar weakness, a potential OPEC+ production boost, mixed economic data, conflicting signals on U.S. tariffs, and ongoing news related to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Key Outlook

Today, the UK and Canada will release March retail sales data. Despite weak consumer confidence and rising household costs, retail activity has remained relatively strong in the UK. The market will observe whether retail figures stay in negative territory in Canada. Later in the evening, the U.S. will release the April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which will be scrutinized for signs that the trade war may further undermine consumer confidence. The market expects the index to drop to 50.8 from 57.0 last month.

Key Data and Events Today:

Australia and New Zealand Holiday

14:00 GB Retail Sales MAR *** 

20:30 CA Retail Sales FEB ***

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final APR *** 

Key Data and Events Coming Next Week:

Japan Holiday. US CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday

CN Manufacturing and Service PMI, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Core PCE on Wednesday

China, Hong Kong, Germany Holiday. BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, US Jobless Claims, and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday

China Holiday. AUD PPI & Retail Sales, EUR CPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

 EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1418 / 1.1455

· Support: 1.1263 / 1.1227

The EUR/USD edged down to 1.1380 as the ECB's rate cut bets for June increased. Trump stated that trade talks with China were ongoing, but Beijing denied negotiations and demanded the removal of tariffs. Trade tensions may limit the dollar's strength. The focus now shifts to the US Michigan University consumer sentiment data, which may guide the Fed's rate path. Technically, the key support is at 1.1350, with resistance at 1.1418 and 1.1455.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3340 / 1.3372

· Support: 1.3235 / 1.3202

GBP/USD dipped to around 1.3310 in early Asia as the USD strengthened on optimism about a US-UK trade deal. UK Finance Minister Reeves expressed confidence in securing a deal and will meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent today. Meanwhile, the IMF cut UK GDP forecasts and expects three BoE rate cuts, which weigh on GBP. The focus now shifts to UK March retail sales, and a better-than-expected print may limit further losses. At night, the US Michigan University consumer sentiment data may guide the Fed's rate path and impact the GBP indirectly. 

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.55 / 144.19

· Support: 142.55/ 142.05

Stronger Tokyo CPI lifted inflation expectations and increased the BoJ hike hopes. However, market participants are concerned about the US-Japan tariffs deal, pushing USD/JPY to 142.83, up 0.15%. To guide US inflation expectations, markets will examine Michigan University consumer sentiment later today. The market expected consumer sentiment to fall from last month; it could have. This is bearish for the dollar and bullish for JPY. Technically, resistance is seen at 143.55 and 144.19, while support lies at 142.55 and 142.05.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUNE)

· Resistance: 63.88/64.90

· Support: 61.57/60.54

WTI settled slightly higher at $62.79, supported by a weaker dollar and hopes for Iran nuclear talks, but constrained by OPEC+ supply risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Technically, WTI remains within an ascending channel. Key support lies at $60.55; staying above this level may lead to a move toward resistance at $64.11, while breaking below the channel could trigger deeper downside.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3409/3437

· Support: 3318/3289

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 34.13/34.81

· Support: 33.27/32.59

Gold climbed to $3,338, up 1.5%, as U.S.-China trade tensions resurfaced and the dollar weakened. While Trump signaled softer tariffs, China denied talks and demanded a complete rollback, which could increase market uncertainty, bolstering gold and silver prices. At night, the US Michigan University consumer sentiment data may guide the Fed's rate path and indirectly impact the gold and silver price. 

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41183/41904

· Support: 38984/38076

The Dow Jones rose by 0.62%, buoyed by increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and optimism regarding U.S.-China trade talks. Former President Trump’s softer tone contributed to the positive sentiment, despite China denying that any negotiations are currently taking place. Additionally, U.S. March durable goods orders surged by 9.2%, indicating strong economic momentum. A break above 40,500 could aim for 41,000 from a technical perspective, with support levels below 39,486 and 39,271.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19752/20310

· Support: 18424/17979

Tech stocks broadly advanced overnight. Alphabet’s strong earnings and $70B buyback boosted tech stocks, with Nasdaq closing at its highest level since April 9. A decisive breakout above current resistance could set the stage for further upside momentum in the coming sessions.

BTC

· Resistance: 95616/ 97279

· Support: 91896 / 90205

Bitcoin remains above $93,500, supported by reduced trade risks. In Switzerland, crypto advocates urge the central bank to add BTC reserves to hedge against a weakening USD and EUR. From a technical standpoint, BTC stays within a range. Continued policy uncertainty could lead to a breakout toward $95,616; below $93,000, the next support is $91,896.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

About ATFX 

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 23 locations and licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Cypriot CySEC, UAE's SCA, Australian ASIC, South African FSCA, and Hong Kong SFC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX provides exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.