ATFX Market Outlook 30th May 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 30th May 2025

Trump Tariffs Return — All Eyes on PCE Inflation Tonight

Market HighlightInitial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 240,000 last week, indicating an increase in layoffs amid rising tariffs. The unemployment rate in May is also trending upwards. A U.S. appeals court temporarily reinstated President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs after a previous ruling deemed them an overreach.

U.S. equities closed higher as investors reacted to the court's decision, with the Dow up 0.28%, the S&P 500 slightly gaining 0.4%, and the Nasdaq surging 0.39%. The U.S. dollar dipped slightly as legal disputes over tariffs continue.

Gold prices increased by 0.8% to $3,315.90 per ounce, buoyed by weak labour market data. Meanwhile, oil prices fell over 1% as investors assessed the implications of the tariff ruling and potential U.S. sanctions on Russian oil.

Key Outlook

Tonight, the U.S. will release the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The Core PCE YoY rate is expected to remain at 2.6%, indicating that tariff-related inflation has not yet fully taken hold. Personal spending is forecasted to slow to 0.2% MoM from 0.7%, reflecting cautious consumer behavior and concerns about finances and the labor market, complicating the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 EU German Retail Sales APR ** 

20:00 EU German CPI MAY ** 

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index APR *** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final MAY *** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: New Zealand and China Holiday, G5 countries’ Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: South Korea General Election, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, RBA Meeting Minute, BoJ Governor Ueda Speaks and EU CPI

Wednesday: US ADP Employment Change, US ISM Services PMI, BoC Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Thursday: Fed Beige Book, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

Friday: Canada’s Jobs Report and US Non-Farm Payrolls

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1419 / 1.1444

· Support: 1.1339 / 1.1314

EUR/USD may pull back to the 1.1339 support level after breaking the trendline. If this level holds, it could lead to a retest of 1.1419. The dollar remains volatile following the reversal of the tariff ruling, and attention now shifts to tonight’s U.S. PCE data for clues regarding the Fed.

 GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3552 / 1.3592

· Support: 1.3420 / 1.3379

GBP/USD rebounded to reclaim 1.3500 on Thursday as attention shifts to the forthcoming U.S. PCE inflation data. Trump’s tariffs remain in force during the appeals process, heightening inflation risks. Technically, GBPUSD remains above the 50-day EMA around 1.3220, with the 1.3420 trendline serving as crucial support for pullbacks.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 144.19 / 144.68

· Support: 143.21/142.72

USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.19 after rebounding from a downward channel, now trading near 143.95. A break below 143.21 could lead to support at 142.34, while holding above 144.20 may resume bullish momentum. Tonight’s U.S. April PCE data is crucial, with core PCE expected at 2.6% and slower spending at 0.2%, signalling weaker consumer confidence. This could pressure the Fed and weigh on the dollar in the short term.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 61.61/ 62.09

· Support: 60.04/ 59.57

WTI crude declined by 1.5% to $60.94 as renewed U.S. tariffs revived fears of an economic slowdown. The IEA highlighted weakened demand, while traders await guidance on OPEC+ output. Technically, $60 represents a crucial support zone; a break below $59.57 could lead to further losses, whereas a rebound could target $61.61.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3337/3366

· Support: 3272/3243

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.46/33.70

· Support: 32.91/32.67

Gold rebounded to nearly $3317 as a surprising uptick in U.S. jobless claims raised concerns about a weakening labor market. Expectations for a rate cut strengthened, while renewed trade uncertainties bolstered safe-haven demand. Technically, gold faces significant resistance around $3337 and may consolidate within the $3272–$3243 range. Markets are now eyeing U.S. PCE data for potential breakout cues.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42454/42625

· Support: 41932/41716

The Dow Futures rose by 0.28% to 42,215.73 as markets absorbed the court decision to reinstate tariffs. Weak U.S. data limited gains, with investor attention shifting to forthcoming Fed commentary. Technically, prices are holding above key support at 41,932. A breakout above 42,627 could indicate further upside momentum.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21743/22171

· Support: 21180/20729

The NAS100 rose 0.39% to 19,175.87, bolstered by Nvidia’s strong earnings. The technology sector remained resilient; however, uncertainty regarding tariff policy limited further gains. Technically, the price is finding support near 21,180 and remains within the ascending trendline. A sustained move above 21,743 could rejuvenate bullish momentum.

 BTC

· Resistance: 107703/109344

· Support: 103726/102424

Bitcoin has extended its pullback below the key $107,000 level and is now consolidating at around $106,000. The chart indicates potential support near $103,726, aligned with the ascending trendline. Maintaining this level could trigger a rebound towards $107,703 and possibly $109,344. A breakdown below the trendline, however, may expose BTC to deeper losses ranging from $103,726 to $102,424.

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