ATFX Market Outlook 14th July 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 14th July 2025 

Wall Street ended lower as tariffs sour sentiment, await earnings and inflation data this week

Market Highlight

Trump issued a letter late on Thursday that said a 35% tariff rate on all imports from Canada would apply from August 1. Wall Street ended lower on Friday, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after President Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada, amplifying the uncertainty swirling around U.S. trade policy.

The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies including the yen and euro as President Donald Trump rekindled trade tensions with new tariffs on Canada and other trading partners. The euro fell to a three-week low on Monday while the Mexican peso also came under pressure after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from two of the largest U.S. trading partners beginning August 1.

Gold prices rose more than 1% on Friday as investors sought safe-haven assets following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, while silver reached its highest level in over 13 years. Oil prices nudged higher on Monday, adding to gains of more than 2% from Friday, as investors eyed further U.S. sanctions on Russia that may affect global supplies

Key Outlook

Investors now await the U.S. inflation data for June due on Tuesday for more cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Markets are currently pricing in just over 50 basis points worth of Fed easing by December.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

12:30 JP Industrial Production MoM Final MAY **

Tomorrow

10:00 CN GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 ***

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUL **

17:00 EU Industrial Production YoY MAY **

20:00 OPEC Monthly Report  **

20:30 US CPI YoY JUN ***

20:30 CA CPI YoY JUN **

EURUSD

1.1738/1.1784 Resistance

1.1636/1.1591 Support

EUR/USD posts first weekly loss in three weeks, as Euro was on the defensive as news reports revealed Trump’s intention to send a letter to the EU. The euro fell below the 1.1700 mark against the US dollar last Friday due to the rebound of the US dollar, strengthening the momentum of a possible pullback to test the key support level. However, EURUSD rebounded from the low since June 25 in the early Asian session today. If the 1.1700 mark is regained, it is expected to test the resistance of the 10-day moving average at 1.1738.

GBPUSD

1.3579/1.3628 Resistance

1.3430/1.3368 Support

UK GDP shrinks for second straight month, boosting August BoE cut odds to 78%. Last Friday, GBP/USD hit a two-week low, recording its biggest drop in more than a week. Technically, the 20-day moving average continued to bring resistance, GBP/USD is trying to approach the 1.3500 mark. If it falls below, may test the support at the bottom of the downward channel in the past two weeks.

USDJPY

147.24/148.03 Resistance

146.62/145.98 Support

As Trump threatens more tariffs on other countries, Japan vows to seek U.S. auto tariff concessions in trade talks, weakening the buying interest in the yen as a safe haven. The rise in the dollar has pushed the USD/JPY to its highest level since June 23, but it partially retreated this morning and hover around the 147 mark.

US crude oil futures (AUG)

69.47/70.06 Resistance

67.74/67.02 Support

The world oil market may be tighter than it appears despite a supply and demand balance pointing to a surplus, the International Energy Agency said. Last Friday, crude oil prices rebounded significantly, breaking through the $67 mark. Currently testing the level above the 20-day moving average, may pave the way for a further direction towards the $70 mark. However, if it encounters resistance, may pullback below $68.

Spot Gold

3375/3385 Resistance

3344/3334 Support

Spot Silver

38.82/39.06 Resistance

37.80/37.55 Support

Gold prices touched a three-week high on Monday, supported by safe-haven demand after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico. Spot gold rose for the third consecutive day last Friday. Technically, it broke through the moving averages on the daily chart, increasing the follow-up of buying interest. After reaching the highest level since June 24th, momentum may slow down as markets await US inflation release tomorrow.

Dow Futures

45215/45921 Resistance

43541/42822 Support

Trump's announcement of new tariffs on Canada and other trading partners partially dragged down the sentiment of the US stock market last Friday. Eyeing earnings season kicks off this week. Dow Futures tested the key support of the 10-day moving average, whether it breaks through this level will become the key to determining its short-term trend, but it is expected that the trend may be mild before the release of US inflation tomorrow.

NAS100

23049/23484 Resistance

22607/22165 Support

Trump's threat to impose more tariffs has kept the US stock market stuck at a relative high levels. The market has turned its focus to this week's US inflation and US stock earnings season, which could decide if a stock market at record highs has more room to run. NAS100 tested the 10-day moving average at 22,700, but it gained support and recovered some of its losses, may try to rebound again.

BTC

121205/123039 Resistance

116844/115432 Support

Bitcoin has reached a new record high last Friday, with analysts pointing out that three major laws will enhance the long-term regulatory transparency of the Industry. As BTC extends its record-breaking rally for a second day, traders eye US$120,000 amid Trump’s bullish messages.

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