ATFX Market Outlook 16th January 2025

The dollar weakened as lower core inflation data raised expectations for two potential Fed rate cuts. The dollar index fell to 109.07, with the dollar at 156.49 yen, the sterling at 1.2229, and the euro near 1.03.
ATFX | 249 dias atrás

ATFX Market Outlook 16th January 2025

 

U.S. Stock Futures Climb on Soft Inflation Data and Strong Bank Earnings 

 

Opinion Today:

U.S. consumer prices steadied in December, while core inflation fell for the first time in six months, boosting the stock market. The Dow was up 1.65%, the S&P 500 was up 1.83%, and the Nasdaq was up 2.45%.

The dollar weakened as lower core inflation data raised expectations for two potential Fed rate cuts. The dollar index fell to 109.07, with the dollar at 156.49 yen, the sterling at 1.2229, and the euro near 1.03.

Gold prices rose 0.7% to $2,695.82 an ounce, and oil prices increased by over 3% due to a drop in U.S. crude inventories and concerns over supply disruptions from new U.S. sanctions on Russia.

UK's November GDP data revealed two consecutive months of contraction in October, prompting the Bank of England to potentially reassess its paused interest rate cuts, with three cuts expected this year.

 

Key Data:

15:00 EU GERMANY CPI DEC *** 

15:00 GB GDP & Trade Balance NOV **

15:00 GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production NOV ** 

18:00 EU Trade Balance NOV ** 

21:30 US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims & Retail Sales DEC *** 

Tomorrow

10:00 CN GDP YoY Q4 ** 

10:00 NBS Press Conference *** 

15:00 UK Retail Sales DEC ***

18:00 EU CPI Prel DEC ***

 

EUR/USD

1.0330/1.0356 Resistance

1.0223/1.0198 Support 

The euro rose due to a weaker US dollar, hitting a one-week high above 1.0344. However, it fell below the 10-day moving average, suggesting a drop below 1.0300. Investors await Germany's December CPI data to guide ECB rates and euro direction. 

 

GBP/USD

1.2297/1.2324 Resistance 

1.2158/1.2125Support 

Sterling rose slightly against the US dollar yesterday, gaining over 0.3%. It approached the 10-day moving average, and we should monitor whether it can maintain a three-day high, potentially retesting the average. Otherwise, it could fall below 1.2200. Today's focus is on the latest UK GDP and production data.

 

USD/JPY

156.23/156.62 Resistance

155.22/154.91 Support 

On Wednesday, the Governor of the Bank of Japan announced that a decision regarding interest rate changes would be made next week, prompting increased speculation about a potential rate hike. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair experienced a significant decline, marking its most notable one-day drop since late November and falling below crucial support levels. As a result, short-term pressure is anticipated to remain below the 156 mark.

 

USD/CAD

1.4362/1.4382 Resistance

1.4301/1.4276 Support

The USD/CAD pair experienced a three-day decline, the first since last November. A late recovery created a trend line support from January's low, potentially easing pressure as the pair approaches 1.4300. Resistance lies between the daily moving averages of 1.4362 and 1.4382.

 

U.S Crude Oil Futures (Feb)

80.75/81.00 Resistance 

79.73/79.48 Support

The EIA predicts an oil surplus by 2025. Despite a three-day rise, crude oil prices dipped overnight but surged twice over 3% in the last four days due to a significant drop in US crude inventories. Prices hit a new high in July 2024, surpassing $80. The next resistance level is above $82, with potential profit-taking likely causing consolidation around $80 in the short term.

 

Spot Gold

2703/2708 Resistance

2692/2687 Support

Spot Silver

30.86/31.03 Resistance

30.46/30.33 Support 

Spot gold is rising due to U.S. inflation data and a weakening dollar. It almost hit $2,700 overnight but fell short. This morning, it aims for $2,720, needing to surpass resistance at $2,703 and $2,708 first.

 

US30

43486/43862 Resistance 

42643/42260 Support 

U.S. inflation data and large bank financial reports lifted the market. Dow futures saw three straight gains, hitting their highest since December 26. Breaking this level may end the recent adjustment pattern, though resistance could occur at the previous high.

 

NAS100

21520/21708 Resistance

20913/20723 Support 

Large tech stocks rose overnight, leading the Nasdaq to open higher and end its losing streak. It crossed the 10-day moving average and paused before the 20-day average. Breaking through today is crucial for reaching 21,500, with support at 21,100.

 

BTC (Bitcoin)

102775/104351 Resistance

97584/95981 Support

On Wednesday, Bitcoin's price rose 3.6% to $100,686 due to a weakening dollar after US inflation data. Following VanEck's recent filing, the proposed Onchain Economy ETF aims to invest in digital transformation companies and digital assets. However, thin liquidity makes Bitcoin susceptible to sharp price fluctuations due to fewer active traders.

 

About ATFX 

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 23 locations and licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Cypriot CySEC, UAE's SCA, Australian ASIC, South African FSCA, and Hong Kong SFC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX provides exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.

ATFX
Digitar: STP
Regulamento: FCA (UK), FSA (Seychelles), FSC (British Virgin Islands), CySEC (Cyprus), ASIC (Australia), FSCA (South Africa), HKSFC (Hong Kong), ESCA (UAE), SERC (Cambodia)
read more
US100, USDCHF, EURUSD

US100, USDCHF, EURUSD

US Core PCE data could shake US100 after its record-breaking rally; SNB steady: No rate change expected as USDCHF eyes recovery; Eurozone PMIs: EURUSD dips as growth shows signs of life
XM Group | 3h 17min atrás
USD/JPY Soars as Yen Weakens on BoJ Policy Concerns

USD/JPY Soars as Yen Weakens on BoJ Policy Concerns

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 148.31 on Monday, extending its gains from the previous week as the US dollar strengthened across the board. The yen faced additional pressure from heightened anticipation around upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials and the release of critical US inflation data.
RoboForex | 3h 28min atrás
Precious Metals Shine, FX Eyes Policy Outlook | 22nd September 2025

Precious Metals Shine, FX Eyes Policy Outlook | 22nd September 2025

Silver surged past $43.00 to 14-year highs, while gold steadied above $3,650 on Fed easing bets. Oil climbed above $63.20 amid geopolitical risks, AUD regained footing after RBA’s cautious tone, and EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1700 ahead of Eurozone confidence data. Central bank guidance remains the key driver this week.
Moneta Markets | 6h 30min atrás
EUR/USD Corrects Lower in Post-Fed Pause

EUR/USD Corrects Lower in Post-Fed Pause

The EUR/USD pair extended its decline on Friday, retreating further following the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The US dollar found support as the Fed’s rhetoric proved less dovish than markets had anticipated.
RoboForex | 3 dias atrás
ATFX Market Outlook 19th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 19th September 2025

U.S. initial jobless claims fell last week, though the labor market continues to soften. Major U.S. equity indices closed at record highs, led by Intel’s surge after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment. The Dow rose 0.27%, the S&P 500 gained 0.48%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.94%.
ATFX | 3 dias atrás
GBP Holds Near Highs as Market Awaits BoE Decision

GBP Holds Near Highs as Market Awaits BoE Decision

The GBP/USD pair stabilised around 1.3626 USD on Thursday, following a highly volatile session on Wednesday. The pair remains close to its highest level in over ten weeks, as markets await the Bank of England’s policy decision later today.
RoboForex | 4 dias atrás