ATFX Market Outlook 17th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 17th July 2025

Powell Stays, Markets Sway: Nasdaq Hits Record as Trump Denies Dismissal Rumours

Market HighlightU.S. producer prices were unexpectedly flat in June, though tariffs raised input costs. The Fed’s Beige Book showed moderate economic growth but flagged rising price pressures due to tariffs, casting a pessimistic outlook. U.S. equities closed modestly higher on Wednesday after intraday volatility sparked by reports that President Trump planned to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Stocks rebounded late in the session, with the Nasdaq hitting another record high. The Dow Jones rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq added 0.25%.

The U.S. dollar weakened but recovered from session lows after Trump denied the dismissal rumours. The DXY index ended 0.25% lower at 98.34. EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1633, USD/JPY dropped 0.7% to 147.82, and GBP/USD gained 0.24% to 1.3411.

Gold prices surged following reports of Powell’s possible dismissal, but pared gains after Trump denied the claims. Spot gold rose 0.73% to settle at $3,346.32/oz, after spiking over 1% intraday. Oil prices closed slightly lower as rising U.S. fuel inventories and concerns over the broader economic impact of tariffs outweighed signs of stronger demand.

Key Outlook

The UK will release June unemployment data, expected to stay at 4.6%. Weakness could pressure the BoE’s rate stance. Eurozone June CPI is forecast to remain steady at 1.9%. In the US, markets await June retail sales (+0.1% estimate) and jobless claims (235K estimate versus 227K prior); weak data may fuel economic concerns.

Key Data and Events Today: 

09:30 AU Unemployment Rate JUN **

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate JUN **

17:00 EU CPI Final JUN **

20:30 US Retail Sales MoM JUN ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

Tomorrow:

07:30 JP CPI YoY JUN **

14:00 EU Germany PPI JUN **

20:30 US Building Permits & Housing Starts JUN **

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Flash JUL ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1682/1.1738

· Support: 1.1545/1.1501

EUR/USD rebounded 0.3% to 1.1633, as speculation around Fed leadership spurred dovish bets. Technically, price remains capped below the descending trendline, with 1.1682 as resistance. A rejection here may resume downside toward 1.1545.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3479/1.3529

· Support: 1.3321/1.3270

GBP/USD rose 0.24% to 1.3411 as broad dollar weakness followed rumours of Powell's firing. However, the price remains below the broken trendline and key resistance near 1.3479. If rejected here, bears may target the 1.3321 support level.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.78/149.18

· Support: 147.87/147.47

The USD/JPY retreated 0.7% to 147.82 amid renewed concerns over Fed independence, which weighed on the dollar. Technically, the pair remains supported above the ascending trendline and 147.87, with upside potential toward the 148.78 resistance level if stability holds.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 68.25/68.92

· Support: 66.11/65.47

WTI crude edged down 0.2% to $66.38, as a sharp rise in gasoline and distillate inventories overshadowed a larger-than-expected draw in crude stocks. Technically, the price is consolidating above the 66.11 support level and the ascending trendline, with resistance located at 68.25.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3360/3374

· Support: 3326/3311

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.10/38.33

· Support: 37.55/37.31

Gold rallied 1% to $ 3,354.01, briefly spiking on reports that Trump might remove Fed Chair Powell, before easing as the rumours were denied. The technical show price is holding above the $ 3,326 support level, eyeing resistance near $ 3,360 amid persistent geopolitical and trade-related tailwinds.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44497/44909

· Support: 43551/43132

Dow Futures rebounded 0.53% to 44,254.78 after President Trump denied plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, calming earlier political jitters. However, price remains within a descending channel. Technical resistance lies near 44,497, while a downside break below 43,800 could trigger a deeper correction toward 43,551. 

NAS100

· Resistance: 23485/24040

· Support: 22608/22165

NAS100 rose 0.26% to 20,730.49, hitting a new record despite Powell-related jitters. Strong earnings and optimism about AI drove gains. The index stays within an ascending channel, with support at 22,608 and resistance at 23,485 and 24,040.

BTC

· Resistance: 121049/123138

· Support: 116259/114134

Bitcoin is trading above $119,000 and approaching key resistance at $121,049. A breakout could pave the way toward $123,138 and potentially $150,000 later this year. However, failure to break higher may trigger a pullback toward $116,259. Fundamentally, despite short-term profit-taking, on-chain data suggests the market is not overheated, leaving room for further upside.

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