ATFX Market Outlook 22nd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 22nd July 2025

Wall Street Climbs on Tech Rally; Tariff Jitters Boost Gold

Market HighlightThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Monday, led by gains in Alphabet and other mega-cap tech stocks. Investors remain optimistic that a potential trade deal could offset the economic damage from the Trump administration's global tariffs, as several major companies are set to report earnings this week. Among the main indices, the Dow dipped slightly, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.38% and the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%.

U.S. Treasuries rallied, pushing yields lower, and the U.S. dollar weakened as markets grew cautious ahead of the August 1 deadline for new tariffs. Among major currencies, the Japanese yen strengthened as Prime Minister Ishiba refused to resign despite an election setback. USD/JPY fell about 1% to 147.38. EUR/USD rose 0.6% to 1.1695, and GBP/USD climbed 0.6% to 1.3488.

Gold jumped over 1% to a five-week high, supported by weaker U.S. yields and dollar amid heightened trade uncertainty ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline. Spot gold rose about 1.4% to $3,395.32/oz. Crude oil settled slightly lower, as Europe’s latest sanctions on Russian oil were seen to have minimal supply impact, though concerns over diesel supply helped limit the downside.

Key Outlook

All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s welcome remarks at a regulatory conference today, with markets watching closely for any comments on recent tariff policy developments and last week’s inflation report—potentially offering hints ahead of this month’s FOMC meeting. Attention will also turn to a speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, which may impact the British pound.

Key Data and Events Today: 

09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes *** 

17:15 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks *** 

20:30 Fed Chair Powell Speaks *** 

Tomorrow: 

NYMEX Crude Oil August Futures Expire 

04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***

09:30 BoJ Vice President Speaks *** 

13:00 BoJ Core CPI YoY ***

22:00 EU Consumer Confidence PREL JUL **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1738/1.1785

· Support: 1.1637/1.1591

EUR/USD up 0.4% to 1.1681 amid broad dollar weakness and lower U.S. yields, as trade optimism with the EU boosted sentiment. The market awaits Powell's comments on tariffs and inflation for policy clues. Technically, the price stayed above the 1.1637 support level after breaking a descending trendline, indicating a bullish continuation towards 1.1738.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3579/1.3629

· Support: 1.3431/1.3369

GBP/USD rose 0.6% to 1.3488, lifted by a weaker dollar and steady UK labor figures. Traders eye BoE’s Bailey speech today for potential rate signals. Price held above the ascending trendline and 1.3431 support, eyeing a potential extension toward 1.3579 if bullish momentum holds.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.88/148.37

· Support: 147.06/146.66

USD/JPY retreated after breaking trendline support, with a rebound capped below 147.88. Political stabilization in Japan has reduced safe-haven demand, while Powell’s remarks later today may steer the USD's direction. Key support remains at 147.06.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 66.79/67.45

· Support 64.80/63.97

WTI crude eased to around $65.20 as EU sanctions had limited impact and diesel scarcity constrained further decline. Technically, the price is staying above the rising trendline, with support near 64.80 and potential to rise towards 66.79. Markets await Powell’s tone for macroeconomic cues.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3411/3419

· Support: 3377/3367

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 39.31/39.51

· Support 38.50/38.30

Gold jumped to a 5-week high of $3,394 as declining yields and tariff uncertainty increased safe-haven demand. The price broke above a rising channel and is retesting the breakout near $3,377; holding above this level could open the way to $3,411. Attention shifts to Powell's comments on inflation and Fed independence.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44586/44718

· Support: 44185/44019

The Dow futures edged down to 44,323 as industrials weighed on sentiment. Traders remain cautious ahead of Powell’s remarks on inflation and Fed credibility. Technically, price is capped by a descending trendline, with a potential rejection near 44,586 leading to further downside.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23485/24040

· Support: 23050/22608

The NAS100 gained 0.38% to 20,974 as tech strength outweighed trade concerns. Technically, the index continues its bullish trend, holding above the rising trendline and breakout structure. A sustained move above 23,050 could target 23,485 highs, with Powell’s speech seen as a key policy signal.

BTC

· Resistance: 118966/121140

· Support: 116322/114185

Bitcoin hovers near $117,700, consolidating below descending resistance. Strong ETF inflows ($2.2B) and BitGo’s IPO plans support long-term sentiment, but price remains capped under $118,966. A breakout above $119k could fuel bullish continuation, while failure risks revisiting $116K support.

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