ATFX Market Outlook 24th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 24th April 2025

From Record Highs to Reality: Gold Retreats Amid Trade Optimism

Market HighlightU.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the high tariffs between China and the U.S. are unsustainable and that both sides should reduce tariffs before resuming negotiations. U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday as hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions were rekindled. President Trump also said he had “no intention” of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, easing concerns over the Fed’s potential loss of independence. The Dow futures rose 1%, the S&P 500 gained 1.66%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.5%.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that following Trump’s tariff announcement, prices rose across multiple regions in the U.S., and economic activity slowed. As Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent made optimistic statements about trade talks, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, and the dollar index rebounded. Hopes of a de-escalating trade war boosted the dollar against the euro and Swiss franc.

Gold prices extended their retreat from record highs, falling 3%, as investor risk appetite improved after Trump said he doesn’t plan to fire the Fed chair and signaled progress on tariff issues with China. Spot gold dropped 2.8% to $3,287.49 per ounce. Oil prices fell 2% on news that OPEC+ may consider accelerating output increases in June. However, reports that President Trump may lower tariffs on Chinese imports helped limit the decline.

Key Outlook

Today’s key data releases are concentrated in the U.S., including March Existing Home Sales and Initial Jobless Claims. For the former, February data indicated a surprising increase despite persistently high mortgage rates, markets will be watching to see if the positive trend continues. As for jobless claims, expectations are for an increase to around 222,000 (previous: 215,000), potentially signaling a cooling labor market.

Key Data and Events Today:

16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate APR ** 

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MAR ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

22:00 US Existing Home Sales MAR ** 

Tomorrow:

Australia and New Zealand Holiday

05:00 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks *** 

07:30 JP Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) APR ** 

14:00 GB Retail Sales MAR *** 

20:30 CA Retail Sales FEB *** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final APR *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1418 / 1.1455

· Support: 1.1263 / 1.1227

EUR/USD edged up to 1.1335 as expectations for tariff easing weighed on the dollar. The Fed’s Beige Book indicated lingering uncertainty, while ECB officials warned that rates may fall below neutral if trade risks persist. Focus now turns to the upcoming German Ifo Business Climate data, which could influence the euro's near-term direction. Technically, resistance is observed at 1.1418 and 1.1455, with support at 1.1263 and 1.1227.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3314 / 1.3340

· Support: 1.3202 / 1.3176

GBP/USD climbed to 1.3270 as Trump’s tariff rhetoric pressured the dollar. However, weak UK April PMI capped gains, with manufacturing and services falling below 50. The focus remains on U.S. data and UK retail sales. Technically, resistance is observed at 1.3314 and 1.3340, while support during pullbacks lies at 1.3202 and 1.3176.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 144.19 / 144.68

· Support: 142.05/141.54

USD/JPY rose to 143.00 on trade optimism and Powell's support, though weak PMI and the Beige Book indicate economic headwinds, capping gains. The technical bias remains bearish, with resistance at 144.20 and support at 142.05. Markets are now awaiting U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and Existing Home Sales, which may drive the next move in the dollar.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUN)

· Resistance: 63.88/64.90

· Support: 60.54/59.51

WTI hovers near $62, pressured by OPEC+ output discussions but supported by hopes for U.S.-China tariff cuts. Key levels within an uptrend channel include $64.90 (resistance) and $60.54 (support). Direction depends on OPEC+ signals and U.S. data.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3393/3418

· Support: 3285/3260

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 34.13/34.81

· Support: 32.59/31.90

Gold slid over $100 to $3,288 amid improving risk sentiment, driven by Trump’s reassurance on Powell and reports that the U.S. may cut China tariffs. Treasury Secretary Bessent denied any unilateral moves, keeping markets cautious. Technically, a break below $3,167 could open the way to the 50-day SMA at $3,032, while reclaiming $3,300 establishes resistance at $3,400 and $3,450.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 40450/41183

· Support: 38984/38076

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday despite intraday pullbacks, as Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a softer tariff stance. The Dow futures opened above their 10-day moving average but failed to hold above the 20-day, suggesting that range-bound trading may continue without a fresh catalyst.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19314/19752

· Support: 18424/17979

U.S. tech stocks rallied overnight as sentiment improved, with Tesla up over 5% post-earnings and Amazon and Meta gaining 4%. The Nasdaq opened above key daily moving averages and reached a one-week high, turning the range of 18,600–18,500 into near-term support. Resistance lies along the descending trendline from the late March highs.

BTC

· Resistance: 95616/ 97279

· Support: 91896 / 90205

Bitcoin trades above $94,000, supported by easing trade tensions and strong ETF inflows. The CME futures premium exceeds 9%, indicating bullish sentiment. A break above $95,000 may target $97,000, with key support at $85,000. The RSI is near overbought levels, so watch for a pullback.

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