ATFX Market Outlook 4th March 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 4th March 2025 

U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico Trigger Stock Decline and Gold Resurgence

[Markets highlight]

U.S. stock indices dropped sharply on Monday following Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, raising trade war fears. The Dow fell 1.48%, the S&P 500 declined 1.76%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.64%. The dollar index weakened by 0.48% but gained against tariff-affected currencies, with the euro rising to 1.0468 and the yen to 150.23. Gold prices surged over 1% to $2,891.72 an ounce amid safe-haven buying, while oil prices fell nearly 2% to a 12-week low due to anticipated OPEC+ production increases and tariff concerns.

Today, the Eurozone will announce its January unemployment rate, expected to hold at 6.3%. This stability suggests potential for policy easing as the ECB plans to cut interest rates. Market sentiment (especially in US Stock indices and commodities) may also be impacted by the U.S. imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective today.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

18:00 EU Unemployment Rate JAN **

Tomorrow

05:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

21:15 US ADP Employment Change FEB *** 

23:00 US ISM Services PMI FEB & Factory Orders JAN ***

EURUSD

1.0528/1.0548 Resistance

1.0443/1.0423 Support

The euro rose against the US dollar yesterday, marking its first increase in four days and recovering losses from the previous two days. This was the largest gain since January 20. It tested the 1.0500 mark, aiming to stay above this level and return to last week's high range, with resistance focused at 1.0528.

GBPUSD

1.2744/1.2760 Resistance

1.2656/1.2640 Support

The pound sterling saw significant gains against the US dollar yesterday, achieving its largest one-day increase since February 13. It briefly reached its highest level since early December, nearing the 1.2700 mark. Today's focus will be whether it can maintain this momentum for further price increases.

USDJPY

149.92/150.25 Resistance

148.55/148.23 Support

The USD/JPY declined yesterday, halting three consecutive losses. It briefly reached a two-week high but faced resistance at the 20-day moving average and broke below the 10-day moving average. The exchange rate continued to fall this morning, with attention on the 149 mark as initial support from last week's low range.

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

68.93/69.19 Resistance

67.80/67.47 Support

Crude oil prices dropped over 2% on Monday, reaching a nearly six-month low of $67. After briefly testing above the 10-day moving average, it faced resistance at $70 and continued to decline. Attention now turns to whether the September 2024 low near $67 will serve as key support.

Spot Gold

2909/2923 Resistance

2861/2847 Support

Spot Silver

32.05/32.31 Resistance

31.22/30.97 Support

Spot gold rebounded over 1% overnight, nearing the $2,900 mark. This was driven by a weakening US dollar and safe-haven buying amid concerns over Trump's tariff policy. For the upward trend to continue, gold must break through key resistance at the 10-day and 20-day moving averages between $2,900 and $2,910.

Dow Futures

43575/43809 Resistance

42819/42580 Support

President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods, causing major U.S. stock indexes to drop sharply. The Dow Jones saw its most significant decline over a week, barely holding the 43,000 mark after hitting a mid-January low. Focus now shifts to Canada's and Mexico's responses and potential further declines in U.S. stocks.

NAS100

20985/21184 Resistance

20141/19889 Support

Following Trump's tariff announcement, U.S. stocks sharply declined in late trading, with major tech stocks, including Nvidia, dropping over 8%. This pushed Nasdaq to its lowest level since early November, threatening the 20,000 mark. Attention now shifts to whether market panic will escalate, leading to further losses for Nasdaq.

BTC

91222/93277 Resistance

80656/78136 Support

Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $94,416 early Monday but fell below the crucial $90,000 support level. Despite positive developments, including the U.S. strategic reserve announcement and an upcoming crypto summit, a sustained rally failed to materialise amid heightened volatility. In the Asian trading session today, BTC recovered the gap yesterday and lost $85,125 in support. Suppose the downward trend continues; BTC would reach its lowest point on February 28 at $78,194.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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