ATFX Market Outlook 5th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 5th August 2025

Wall Street Roars Back: Biggest One-Day Gain in Over Two Months

Market HighlightAll three major U.S. stock indexes recorded their largest single-day percentage gains since May 27 on Monday, as investors bought the dip following the previous session’s sell-off. Weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data also boosted bets on a Fed rate cut in September. By the close, the Dow Jones rose 1.34%, the S&P 500 gained 1.47%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.95%.

Overnight, the U.S. dollar rebounded slightly as markets reassessed direction after a Fed governor resigned and President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, analysts believe the dollar's rebound may be short-lived due to growing policy uncertainty and emerging cracks in the U.S. economy. The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1% to 98.77. EUR/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.1568.

Gold prices rose for a third consecutive session, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts following last week’s economic data. Spot gold gained 0.3% to $3,372.79 per ounce. Crude oil fell to a one-week low as OPEC+ agreed to a large output increase in September, fueling concerns of an oversupply, while U.S. data continued to show weak fuel demand from the world’s largest consumer.

Key Outlook

Markets will closely watch the July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from the U.S.The market expects a rebound to 51.5 (previous: 50.8); if met, it may help ease recession fears. Markets are also watching Euro PPI data for further clues on whether price pressures pick up.

Key Data and Events Today:

15:55 EU GERMANY Services PMI Final JUL ** 

16:00 EU Services PMI Final JUL **

16:30 GB Services PMI Final JUL ** 

17:00 EU PPI MoM JUN **  

20:30 US Balance of Trade JUN ** 

21:45 US Services PMI Final JUL ** 

22:00 US ISM Services PMI JUL ** 

Tomorrow: 

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders JUN **  

17:00 EU Retail Sales MoM JUN ** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1636/1.1683

· Support: 1.1483/1.1435

EUR/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.1568 as the dollar saw a modest rebound. While rate cut expectations remain elevated, political interference from Trump continues to cloud sentiment. Technically, the pair faces strong resistance at 1.1636. A failure to break above this level may trigger renewed selling pressure, targeting the 1.1483 support.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3362/1.3396

· Support: 1.3220/1.3193

GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3280 as traders await fresh UK data. Rising Fed-cut bets cap the dollar, but directional conviction is lacking. The 1-hour chart shows a sequence of higher lows; a clean break above the 1.3362 supply zone could trigger upside momentum, while 1.3220 is pivotal support if the move fails.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.79/148.39

· Support: 146.60/145.85

USD/JPY rebounded 0.3% to 146.95 after plunging over 2% on Friday. The pair found support as the dollar stabilized and safe-haven flows into the yen eased. However, technical structure remains bearish, with lower highs forming and downside pressure building. A break below 146.60 could extend losses toward new lows.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 67.60/68.29

· Support: 64.69/64.01

WTI crude dropped to $66.29, a one-week low, after OPEC+ announced a 547,000 bpd output hike for September. Combined with weak U.S. demand data, this pressured oil prices. Technically, WTI is testing trendline support near $65. A rebound is possible if $64.69 holds, with upside potential toward $67.60.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3414/3439

· Support: 3354/3333

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.79/38.02

· Support: 36.99/36.69

Spot gold rose for a third straight session to $3,378.50, driven by rising Fed rate cut expectations and renewed geopolitical tensions. With markets pricing in an 87.8% chance of a September cut, gold remains supported. Technically, the uptrend remains intact above $3,354, with bulls eyeing the $3,414 resistance zone.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44655/45006

· Support: 43851/43494

The Dow Futures surged 1.34% to 44,173.64, posting the strongest single-day rally since May as dip buyers returned. Weak U.S. job data raised expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Technically, the index rebounded from key support near 43,851 and is now eyeing resistance at 44,655, with bullish momentum likely to extend if this level is cleared.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23354/23594

· Support: 22806/22563

The NAS100 surged 1.95% to 21,053.58, led by gains in tech names like Spotify and Joby Aviation. Risk appetite improved as markets priced in an 84% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Technically, the index is testing resistance near 23,354. A breakout could extend the rally, while failure may trigger a reversal toward 22,806.

BTC

· Resistance: 116787/117715

· Support: 113785/112841

BTC/USD is trading near $114,700, consolidating after a sharp rebound from sub-$111,000 lows. Price action is compressing within a falling wedge pattern. If support near $113,785 holds, bulls may attempt a breakout toward the upper boundary near $116,787. A break above this resistance could signal a trend reversal.

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