ATFX Market Outlook 6th May 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 6th May 2025

Wall Street Rally Stalls as Tariff Tensions Loom, Fed in Focus

Market HighlightOvernight, the U.S. ISM Services PMI for April indicated accelerated expansion. However, the input prices index surged to its highest level in over two years, highlighting rising inflationary pressures likely stemming from tariffs. U.S. Treasury yields inched higher, while the dollar weakened against major currencies like the euro and yen as markets assessed the ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies and their broader economic implications. U.S. equity markets closed lower on Monday, ending the longest winning streak for the S&P 500 in two decades. Investors evaluated the latest tariff-related headlines from President Trump while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision later this week. The Dow finished down 0.2%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.7%. Gold surged more than 2% amid a softer dollar and rising demand for safe-haven assets as markets positioned themselves ahead of this week’s Fed policy decision. Spot gold increased by 2.89% to $3,333.60 per ounce. Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell by over $1 per barrel as OPEC+ confirmed plans to accelerate output hikes, raising concerns about increased global supply amid an uncertain demand outlook.

Key Outlook

Today’s focus is on the final Services and Composite PMIs for April from major economies and the Eurozone’s March PPI, which is expected to be 2.5% YoY with a likely monthly decline. In energy markets, traders are awaiting the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook early Wednesday for possible downgrades to global oil demand, which may further pressure crude.

Key Data and Events Today:

Japan Holiday

09:45 Caixin Services PMI APR **

15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final APR ** 

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final APR ** 

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final APR ** 

17:00 EU PPI MAR ** 

20:30 US Balance of Trade MAR ** 

Tomorrow:

00:00 EIA Monthly Report ** 

04:30 US API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

17:00 EU Retail Sales YoY MAR ** 

22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1345 / 1.1381

· Support: 1.1227 / 1.1190

The EUR/USD trades near 1.1300 as markets await the Eurozone March PPI today. Softer data may boost ECB rate cut bets and weigh on the euro. The focus also stays on the Fed decision and Powell’s remarks for policy guidance later this week. Technically, weaker PPI may drag EUR/USD toward 1.1227 support, while a stronger-than-expected print could open the door to retest resistance at 1.1345.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3312 / 1.3337

· Support: 1.3230 / 1.3205

GBP/USD is hovering near 1.3270 ahead of this week’s dual central bank events. While the US Dollar found support from strong NFP data, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, shifting focus to Powell’s tone. The BoE is widely expected to deliver a 25-bps rate cut on Thursday. Technically, the pair is testing key support at 1.3260; a break below may trigger a move toward 1.3240 or lower, while a rebound above 1.3294 opens the door toward resistance at 1.3322.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 145.06 / 146.06

· Support: 143.09/ 141.87

USD/JPY fell to 143.80 amid rising risk aversion as unconfirmed US-China trade deal rumors spurred demand for the safe-haven Yen.  A daily close above 144.00 is needed to regain bullish momentum; otherwise, a break below 143.00 could open the door to test 141.87 and potentially the YTD low at 139.88.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUNE)

· Resistance: 58.83/ 59.98

· Support: 56.55/ 55.11

After hitting a four-year low, oil prices rebounded in Asia trading session, but concerns persist due to slowing demand, U.S.-China trade tensions, and rising global supply. Weak economic data adds to uncertainty. Prices are in a descending channel; if WTI doesn't break above $57.87, downside targets are near $54.00 and possibly $52.00. A breakout above $57.87 could lead to $60.78.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3387/3422

· Support: 3316/3273

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.38/33.68

· Support: 32.43/32.14

Today’s Asian trading session, gold jumped over 1.6% to $3,380 due to weakness in the USD and safe-haven demand. Despite solid US data, Trump's 100% film tariff and rate cut calls added uncertainty. Technically, holding above $3,340 could lead to $3,387 and $3,422 next.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41931/42269

· Support: 40790/40352

The Dow Jones Index edged higher on Monday, boosted by a stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI index of 51.6. However, sentiment remains fragile amid uncertainty over the Fed and erratic US trade policy. Technically, the index is approaching its 200-day moving average near 41,600, but momentum is fading. With short-term downside risks intensifying, watch for support near 40,790 and 40,352.

NAS100

· Resistance: 20728/21177

· Support: 19307/18866

The Nasdaq slipped 1.2% today, ending its rallying streak as Trump’s tariff shock on foreign films dragged tech and media stocks like Netflix and Amazon. Despite strong ISM services data, rising price pressures reignited inflation concerns and weighed on rate-cut hopes. Technically, Nasdaq futures are now testing support near 19,748. A rebound from this level could reach 20,152 again, while a lower break may expose the next support at 19,443. Traders remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.

BTC

· Resistance: 95447/ 96035

· Support: 93693 / 92955

Bitcoin slipped to $94,100 today amid pre-Fed caution, but on-chain signals suggest potential for a trend move. 88% of the BTC supply remains profitable, with losses between $95k and $ 100k, a consolidation zone. The market will watch Wednesday’s Fed decision and Powell’s remarks for policy clues that could drive risk assets.

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