AUD/USD Consolidates After Recent Gains

The Australian dollar against the US dollar is currently experiencing a pause in its recent upward trajectory, stabilising around 0.6525 on the H4 chart.
RoboForex | 233 days ago

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar against the US dollar is currently experiencing a pause in its recent upward trajectory, stabilising around 0.6525 on the H4 chart. After three sessions of gains, the currency pair is undergoing a period of consolidation, likely preparing for a return to a stable ascending trend.

The slight retreat in the US dollar, driven by profit-taking after its rally and anticipation of new developments in the US Treasury under President Donald Trump, has influenced the performance of the AUD.

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest meeting highlight the bank's commitment to maintaining a restrictive monetary policy until inflation consistently approaches the target range. The RBA remains open to adjusting its policy stance in response to changing economic conditions, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut in the coming months, with a 37% probability in February and 58% in April.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: The AUD/USD pair is currently in a phase of correction following a downturn that saw the local decline target at 0.6440 reached. The market is forming a corrective wave towards 0.6543. If this correction is completed, a new downtrend towards 0.6380 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports this bearish AUD/USD outlook, positioned below the zero line and poised to descend to new lows.

H1 chart: On the H1 chart, AUD/USD is approaching the correction target near 0.6543, forming a consolidation pattern just below this level. The breakout from this consolidation is expected to be downwards, initiating another phase of decline. The immediate target for this decline is set at 0.6464. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this bearish forecast, with its signal line pointing downwards towards the 20 mark, indicating potential further declines.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

read more
Oil and Copper Surge as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Escalate | 9th July, 2025

Oil and Copper Surge as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Escalate | 9th July, 2025

On July 9, oil jumps above $67.00 on renewed Red Sea attacks, while copper surges past $5.50 after Trump vows 50% tariffs if re-elected. DXY edges up past 97.50 ahead of FOMC Minutes. China’s CPI surprises slightly at 0.1% YoY, offering mixed signals. AUD/USD trades flat, and markets brace for further volatility driven by Fed outlook and trade policy threats.
Moneta Markets | 2 days ago
Central Bank Outlook and Trade Shift Sentiment | 8th July, 2025

Central Bank Outlook and Trade Shift Sentiment | 8th July, 2025

On July 8, gold slips below $3,350 as risk appetite improves. Silver holds steady near $36.90, while AUD/USD rises to 0.6855 ahead of the RBA decision. USD/JPY surges above 161.00 as BoJ tightening bets fade. PBOC sets USD/CNY at 7.1534, signaling stability. Focus now shifts to US CPI, central bank guidance, and trade progress for market direction.
Moneta Markets | 3 days ago
Rate Shifts Steer FX Markets as Silver Holds Strong

Rate Shifts Steer FX Markets as Silver Holds Strong

On July 3, silver stays firm above $35.40 as Fed cut bets persist. EUR/USD holds near 1.1800, while GBP/USD lingers near 1.3585 ahead of UK jobs data. JPY strengthens after BoJ signals a hawkish pause. AUD/USD slips on weak trade surplus. Focus turns to US NFP and ISM data for market direction before the US holiday break.
Moneta Markets | 8 days ago
Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

On July 2, the USD stabilizes as Fed rate cut bets build. GBP/USD nears 1.3750 highs, NZD/USD extends above 0.6120, and AUD/USD holds near 0.6820 despite soft retail sales. USD/JPY recovers to 146.20, while silver dips below $36. Markets await US labor data and Fed remarks for direction ahead of July 4.
Moneta Markets | 9 days ago
WTI Slides as Geopolitical Risks Ease | 1st July, 2025

WTI Slides as Geopolitical Risks Ease | 1st July, 2025

WTI dips below $64.50 as Middle East tensions ease, dampening supply fears. Silver struggles under $36, while AUD and NZD stay muted on weak China PMI. USD/JPY steadies near 145.90, and the yen holds gains on USD weakness. Traders now eye US ISM PMI and Fed minutes for clues on policy and market direction.
Moneta Markets | 10 days ago
Oil Rises, Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Builds | 27th June, 2025

Oil Rises, Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Builds | 27th June, 2025

WTI crude nears $75 on strong US inventory draw, boosting risk sentiment. The US Dollar remains weak amid Fed independence fears, lifting AUD/USD to 0.6880 and EUR/USD near 1.1700. USD/JPY retreats while USD/CNY stays steady on a firmer PBOC fix. Focus shifts to US PCE data and global central bank commentary.
Moneta Markets | 14 days ago