Gold Steady; CPI, Powell in Focus, FX Mixed | 24th September 2025

CPI, Powell in Focus

Global markets opened Wednesday with a cautious tone as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, which reinforced uncertainty over the pace of future monetary easing. Gold held steady near $3,750, reflecting a balanced mix of Fed caution and safe-haven flows. In FX, the Australian Dollar saw movement after CPI data edged higher than expected, while the Pound extended its rebound despite weak PMI figures. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar remained pressured by risk aversion, and the Kiwi found support above 0.5850 as traders awaited further Fed clarity.

Gold Price Forecast (XAUUSD)

Current Price and Context

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading steady around $3,750 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks, with markets carefully weighing his cautious tone on monetary policy. The yellow metal remains supported by persistent uncertainty in global markets, keeping safe-haven demand intact.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions sustain gold’s safe-haven appeal.

US Economic Data: Investors are awaiting fresh US data for confirmation of economic resilience after Powell’s balanced stance.

FOMC Outcome: Powell’s comments suggest the Fed remains open to policy adjustments, keeping gold in focus.

Trade Policy: Lack of major trade developments leaves gold trading largely on monetary and risk sentiment.

Monetary Policy: Dovish expectations for future Fed actions continue to underpin gold’s price stability.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Gold is consolidating in a sideways-to-bullish pattern above $3,700.

Resistance: Immediate resistance is at $3,770, with a breakout opening the path to $3,800

Support: Strong support is seen at $3,720, followed by $3,700.

Forecast: If gold sustains above $3,720, a retest of $3,800 is likely in the near term.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Traders remain cautiously bullish amid Fed uncertainty.

Catalysts: Upcoming US data releases, geopolitical headlines, and further Fed commentary will guide near-term moves.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

Australia’s monthly CPI inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in August, slightly above the forecast of 2.9%. The stronger reading suggests persistent inflation pressures, which could keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cautious and influence the near-term direction of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing concerns over China’s growth outlook weigh on AUD demand.

US Economic Data: Robust US releases continue to underpin USD strength, limiting AUD gains.

FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance indirectly supports USD, keeping AUD/USD under pressure.

Trade Policy: Australia’s trade ties with China remain crucial for AUD performance.

Monetary Policy: The RBA could lean slightly hawkish if inflation persists above target levels. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: AUD/USD trades in a consolidative range following recent weakness.

Resistance: First resistance at 0.6500, stronger cap near 0.6550.

Support: Immediate support at 0.6420, then 0.6400.

Forecast: A push above 0.6500 could open recovery, but sustained weakness below 0.6420 risks fresh downside.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Traders remain cautious, balancing domestic inflation optimism with global headwinds.

Catalysts: Upcoming RBA commentary, China’s economic performance, and US PMI data will set the tone for AUD/USD.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

The British Pound is extending gains against the US Dollar, even after UK PMI data came in weaker than expected. Despite the softer economic signal, GBP/USD managed to climb, reflecting resilience supported by broader USD fluctuations and short-term market positioning.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Political uncertainty in the UK remains a background risk for Sterling.

US Economic Data: US strength keeps Dollar demand steady, capping GBP upside.

FOMC Outcome: Powell’s cautious tone leaves GBP/USD reacting more to UK data than Fed expectations.

Trade Policy: Brexit-related trade discussions and UK-EU dynamics still linger as medium-term factors

Monetary Policy: The Bank of England’s rate outlook remains key, with weak PMIs pressuring hawkish bets. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: GBP/USD shows a near-term recovery after recent declines.

Resistance: First resistance at 1.3700, stronger barrier near 1.3750.

Support: Initial support at 1.3620, followed by 1.3580.

Forecast: As long as the pair holds above 1.3600, a test of 1.3700 is likely, though momentum may fade without stronger UK data. 

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Traders show cautious optimism, favoring Sterling rebounds but wary of weak fundamentals.

Catalysts: Upcoming BoE commentary, US PMI data, and global risk sentiment shifts will guide GBP/USD direction.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD is trading firmly near 1.3850, with the US Dollar supported by safe-haven flows as global risk sentiment weakens. The Canadian Dollar continues to feel the weight of subdued oil prices, amplifying USD strength.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Market caution amid geopolitical tensions lifts demand for the USD over commodity-linked CAD.

US Economic Data: Stronger US data supports USD’s relative outperformance against the Loonie.

FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious policy outlook provides limited downside for USD, keeping the pair elevated.

Trade Policy: Global trade uncertainties and weaker demand outlooks pressure CAD through oil exports.

Monetary Policy: Divergent policy expectations between the Fed and the Bank of Canada sustain USD/CAD’s upside.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish near-term, consolidating gains above 1.3800.

Resistance: Immediate resistance at 1.3880, next level near 1.3920.

Support: Key support lies at 1.3800, followed by 1.3750.

Forecast: USD/CAD likely to remain supported above 1.3800, with potential tests of 1.3900 if risk aversion persists.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Risk-off mood favors USD strength, keeping CAD on the defensive.

Catalysts: Moves in oil prices, US PMI data, and any BoC commentary will be key drivers for USD/CAD.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD is trading steadily above 0.5850, supported by a softer US Dollar as markets weigh Fed Chair Powell’s remarks. The Kiwi maintains modest gains, although broader uncertainty around Fed policy caps further upside momentum.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact, though global tensions indirectly support USD safe-haven demand.

US Economic Data: Traders await US PMI data, which could sway USD direction and impact NZD/USD.

FOMC Outcome: Mixed signals from the Fed keep investors cautious, supporting range-bound Kiwi trading.

Trade Policy: New Zealand remains sensitive to global trade flows; any slowdown in China’s demand could pressure the Kiwi.

Monetary Policy: Divergence between the Fed and RBNZ outlooks remains a key factor restraining upside momentum.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-bullish bias as the pair stabilizes above 0.5850.

Resistance: Immediate resistance at 0.5900, with stronger barrier at 0.5950.

Support: Initial support at 0.5820, followed by 0.5780.

Forecast: NZD/USD likely to trade in a consolidative range, with limited upside unless Fed signals dovish clarity.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautious optimism supports the Kiwi, but Fed-related uncertainty tempers bullish conviction.

Catalysts: US PMI figures, Powell’s upcoming remarks, and shifts in risk appetite will be decisive for NZD/USD.

Wrap-up

Today’s market action highlights the tug-of-war between central bank signals, economic data, and broader risk sentiment. With Powell’s speech leaving the door open to both caution and flexibility, traders are bracing for upcoming US data releases to determine the next directional move. Commodities and major FX pairs are expected to trade in ranges until stronger catalysts emerge, keeping volatility contained but sentiment watchful.

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