Gold’s Downturn Won’t Last: Global Risks Remain Elevated

The gold price rebounded to $3,350 per troy ounce on Thursday after two consecutive days of steep declines unsettled investors. However, this dip is likely temporary.
RoboForex | 86 days ago

Key Drivers Behind Gold’s Movements

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that high tariffs between the U.S. and China must be reduced before trade negotiations progress. However, he stressed that President Donald Trump would not unilaterally remove tariffs on Chinese goods

Trump’s immediate focus includes exempting automakers from certain tariffs following weeks of intense discussions with industry leaders—a move that has partially eased concerns over trade complications.

Gold has surged over 30% since the start of the year, and the gold-to-silver ratio has hit its highest level since 1994 (excluding the pandemic period).

The primary catalyst behind gold’s rally is waning confidence in U.S. economic exceptionalism, driven by escalating trade barriers and unpredictable policy shifts. This has prompted investors to shift from U.S. assets to gold as a safe haven.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, the market is forming a downside wave structure to the 3225 level. Today we will consider the probability of reaching this target level. Further we will consider the probability of correction development to the level of 3363. After the completion of this correction, we will consider the probability of a new wave of decline to the level of 3055. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above the zero level and is directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 chart of XAU/USD the market formed a consolidation range around the level of 3363 and worked off the third wave of decline to the level of 3260 with a downward exit. Today the correction to the level of 6363 is executed. In the future it will be relevant to consider the development of the fifth wave of decline to the level of 3232, at least. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under the level of 50 and is directed strictly downwards to the level of 20.

Conclusion

Despite recent volatility, gold’s long-term bullish case remains intact, supported by persistent global risks and shifting investor sentiment.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

read more
Gold Ends the Week in Decline

Gold Ends the Week in Decline

Gold remained below $3,340 per ounce this week, on track to close in negative territory for the first time in three weeks. The downward pressure followed stronger-than-expected US economic data, which reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
RoboForex | 1 day ago
China’s GDP Surprise Boosts Risk Currencies, CPI Eyed

China’s GDP Surprise Boosts Risk Currencies, CPI Eyed

China’s Q2 GDP surprise at 5.2% YoY sparked a positive reaction across global markets on July 15, 2025. Commodity currencies like AUD and NZD advanced modestly, while Gold hovered near $3,350 ahead of key U.S. CPI data. The Japanese Yen weakened despite safe-haven flows, as 10-year JGB yields hit their highest since 2008, highlighting BoJ-Fed policy divergence.
Moneta Markets | 4 days ago
Gold Shines as Trade Tensions Rise

Gold Shines as Trade Tensions Rise

On July 14, global markets turned risk-off after President Trump revived tariff threats targeting the EU and Canada. Gold surged past $3,350 on safe-haven bids, while USD/CAD spiked near 1.3700. EUR/USD rebounded toward 1.1700, and NZD/USD slid below 0.6000 ahead of key Chinese trade data. GBP/USD remained pressured around 1.3500 amid Brexit silence.
Moneta Markets | 5 days ago
ATFX Market Outlook 10th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 10th July 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on seven countries, stating earlier this week that a 25% tariff would be imposed on Japan and other trade partners starting in August. Despite this, Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the gains.
ATFX | 9 days ago
ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th July 2025

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated the global trade war by announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and reiterated that long-threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are also imminent. U.S. equities ended mixed as investors awaited further clarity on trade policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.07%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.03%
ATFX | 10 days ago
Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

Gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, extending losses after a 1% decline the previous day. The downward pressure stemmed from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, which partially offset concerns over escalating trade tensions.
RoboForex | 10 days ago
Central Bank Outlook and Trade Shift Sentiment | 8th July, 2025

Central Bank Outlook and Trade Shift Sentiment | 8th July, 2025

On July 8, gold slips below $3,350 as risk appetite improves. Silver holds steady near $36.90, while AUD/USD rises to 0.6855 ahead of the RBA decision. USD/JPY surges above 161.00 as BoJ tightening bets fade. PBOC sets USD/CNY at 7.1534, signaling stability. Focus now shifts to US CPI, central bank guidance, and trade progress for market direction.
Moneta Markets | 11 days ago