Perhaps, to continue the downward trend in EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs, all that was missing was the appearance of a new monthly candle on the chart. After the recent impressive movement of the dollar to strengthen, finally, there was an equally impressive correction. And if we want to enter the current trend, we are waiting for the best levels to enter. What is the best level to enter the current trend?..? The one that was formed as a result of the rollback. And here it is, this very rollback has occurred, or is currently happening. And for the change of the trend (trend), the reasons are not yet visible. Why do bulls buy EURUSD and GBPUSD? Just because prices are low enough? But the trend is more likely to continue than change (one of the postulates of trading on the stock exchange). Yes, prices are low. But if you look at the overall global situation, it seems that the path of least resistance in the main pairs is the South (strengthening of the dollar). Why? Let's remember the end of the 2008 crisis. During the long recovery of the world economy, and in particular the economy of the European Union, Italy was in the most deplorable state. However, the crisis subsided, and the country that had just been at the top of the list of the next bankrupts suddenly continued to exist as if nothing had happened. But now it's time for the next major crisis, and in Europe, the first country to crack the seams is Italy, and Spain is next. The prospects are not rosy for the EU. In addition, at the height of the pandemic, the once United Europe suddenly distanced itself from its member countries. Without showing any solidarity or signs of unity, each country began to take care only of itself, forgetting all obligations. When the crisis subsides and countries begin to recover, there will be difficult times for the EU. It is time to test its strength, which, as you can see, is very fragile. You will immediately remember the lack of assistance to each other, there will be reproaches against the participating countries and Brussels, in particular. As an example, they will start to cite the experience of the UK, which, although painful, still leaves the European Union. By the way, it is worth saying that, after leaving Europe, the Bank of England will get its hands on the levers of managing its economy. London's dependence on Brussels will disappear. Other countries in a United Europe may want to follow the example of great Britain. Against the background of the events that have occurred, this is quite likely, and the most realistic scenario. Why do bears sell EURUSD and GBPUSD? First, for the reasons described above. And second, why should the dollar weaken? Just because the fed is pouring trillions of liquidity into the economy? But the EU does it, and so does Britain... In addition, the crisis has not been canceled, and the improving situation in China is not yet a reason for risk-taking. We should not forget that the pandemic is still spreading. Countries close not only themselves, but also cities within countries. Emergency measures are being introduced in cities. The consequences for all the world's economies will be astoundingly large. Buying risky assets (and the Euro and British pound are risky assets in relation to the us dollar) is not a rational decision today. Well, if you sell, then sell on growth. And so, this growth (correction\rollback) inside the downward trend was formed. And that means it's time to sell.
Markets are in a state of panic and confusion. Until recently, well-functioning models and interpretations have stopped moving traders. Bidders make decisions emotionally, without paying any attention to the statistics that come out. The market is now at the mercy of fears about the coronavirus. On Friday, prices were hovering in one place, until it became known that Spain and Italy, a couple, surpassed America in the number of infected. And the Germans have overtaken the middle Kingdom in this respect. As a result, the EURUSD pair went down. Especially striking was the single decline of the Euro against the dollar. The British Pound, for example, steadfastly held positions.
The markets are a mess The markets are a mess At the same time, in the United States itself, a new record was set for the spread of the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection increased by 30.1 thousand. The European market and the US market are the largest on our planet. And it is also very obvious that Europe and the United States are two of the world's largest financial centers. Only Europe and North America have enormous liquidity. This means that the main global investments are controlled by American and European investors. Therefore, as soon as a crisis occurs and anti-risk sentiment dominates the markets, these huge masses of money move to conditions where they can be placed and wait out the best of times. In cases where the shocks do not cease, European investors and owners of capital moved money overseas. Then back again. And so on.
Today, coronavirus is the main trigger. Market participants do not pay any attention to the emerging macrostatistics. And data from the UK on prices came out a week late, so traders did not pay any attention to them. In addition, statistics from Britain were distorted, due to the lack of demand for housing. At the same time, it showed a March acceleration in price growth. Citizens in quarantine remain in self-isolation and try not to leave the shelter. And suddenly, for no reason at all, the price of housing began to rise. Why is this happening? This can only happen at times of demand. But what exactly can serve as a catalyst for demand, especially for expensive purchases? In General, the British statistics were not accurate and doubtful. A week's delay doubles the distrust of it. This could have caused markets to ignore it.
Macroeconomic data from Europe came out in a perceived negative light. Again, the Market did not react in any way. The Euro quickly became cheaper after the publication of economic indicators from overseas. However, the rate of decline in producer prices increased from minus 0.7 percent to minus 1.3 percent. This has been happening for 7 months. This means that the potential for an increase in inflationary pressure does not yet exist. It is most likely that inflation will continue to show a tendency to weaken. In such conditions, the Central Bank of Europe is quite capable of lowering the rate to minus levels. The decline of the labor market in the United States may be a similar scenario for the European region. Already in Spain, the number of citizens who lost their jobs has approached three hundred thousand. At the same time, the indicator was expected to grow to forty-five thousand. This compares with the three million who lost their jobs in the States, if you take into account the different number of citizens living in Spain, with citizens living overseas. In General, these are huge values. Unemployment figures during the dot-com crisis of the noughties are not yet ahead, but this is little reassuring. And in Spain, unemployment was already high. In this crisis, which is the largest in history, the unemployment situation threatens to last for a more indefinite period. And the number of citizens who lost their jobs will grow steadily.
But this is not as bad as in the case of the United States, which the markets also did not pay attention to. It is difficult to imagine shock and concern when the unemployment data contains figures such as over 3,000,000 unemployed people. This has never happened before. In the entire history of statistics, such high rates and values have not been observed. It is difficult to realize that these unemployment figures are real. It is not clear what to do in such a situation, in which safe havens to hide. The idea of going back to the great depression comes to mind. In General, an agitated state that does not allow you to objectively look at the situation. And so a week passed, and the figure rose to 6,648,000 people who applied for unemployment benefits. This is already quite an exorbitant state, which is difficult to describe in words. It was expected that the figure will be around 3 680 000. This is a record figure, exceeding the data for the previous week. The situation itself in the current crisis has created such an amazing scale that it is really difficult to figure out what to do in such circumstances. But what really became a terrible fact is that for half a month, about ten million US citizens lost their jobs.
The EURUSD rate broke through the lower border of the 4h channel from top to bottom, falling out of it. And now this same border has become a resistance level with a possible upward movement. The downward trend prevails, which is clearly visible in the long term. The trend is more likely to last than change. Especially when the World enters a period of recession. The blow to the global economy dealt by COVID-19 is colossal and unprecedented. So there is no reason for optimism. In such circumstances, it is difficult to assume that optimism will return to the Market in the near future. For some time, bidders assumed that the peak was passed and began to enter the purchase of cheaper assets. So the main couple, too, grew for some time. But barely approaching the tenth figure (1.0993), the course reversed sharply and headed down. Further, it is not clear for what reasons, springing back up, the course came closer to the previously broken down lower boundary of the channel. And because Now this border acts as a resistance, traders, without thinking twice, began to sell again. No macro statistics seem to influence decision making. And trade goes on technical figures and power levels. It is extremely difficult to sell when the price is already at very low levels, having covered an impressive distance. But even more difficult to buy during the recession. If buying a EURUSD pair is considered a risky mood, then selling a pair is an anti-risk one. The crisis has not disappeared. People continue to become infected and die. Each country’s economy has been hit, after which even the least affected countries will recover for a long time. That is, on the one hand, to catch a “falling knife” looks “tempting”. On the other hand, selling below is somehow wrong.
In such a situation, when both options (sale, or purchase) seem unobvious, a prudent and cautious trader would prefer to stay out of the Market. In such periods, the investor saying is remembered: - “There is time to buy. There is time to sell. And there’s time to stay out of the Market. ” But we traders love to trade. Trading under any circumstances raises the skill level, but also increases the risks. If you really need to open a position on the EURUSD pair in the current circumstances, then, being careful, you should enter the Market in small lots. Now Forex does not know where to move and will test both directions. Therefore, when the price passes the distance in one direction, it will go the distance in the opposite direction too. It is difficult to predict the boundaries of such a throwing, but technical tools are quite useful in the circumstances.
It is difficult to be optimistic about the EURUSD pair, at least until the market situation changes. Here it is worth noting that the author is a medium-and long-term trader (at least in his forecasts).
But what's important... There was another global shock. A crisis that affected the entire Planet. We traders were waiting for events. And they came. The price on the charts has already formed strong fluctuations in both directions several times. And now...
A question hung in the air: 'Buy or sell?' It is better to do without the third option: 'Stay out of the Market.' The trader wants the Market to work for him, and therefore wants to act right now. So, after all? Buy or sell...? This is a very good question. Everyone will answer it differently. But it is already known that there are only two options. Which is good enough. This reduces the search for a solution by half.
Forex is very volatile. Especially in times of crisis. Fluctuations are so ' ragged” that even the most advanced expert risks being confused. Traders with less training do not allow profits to grow, and losses are often fixed when the price as a result goes in the right direction, throwing off the “impatient” bidder. Professional traders do not fix the profit they have already made, and it melts before their eyes, leaving them “with their own”. No one-neither beginners nor professionals, can successfully jump on the “ragged” trend and ride with the wind. Of course, a few manage to do this. But the vast majority, as a result, lose money, or just 'stand still'.
How do I make myself one of those “units'...? How to jump on a trend with high volatility and ragged lightning fluctuations...? The answer may seem very complicated. But if you look at the situation from afar, you can build an approximate order of actions. If you imagine a person who is located in a locality and who needs to analyze it... The city is large and it is impossible to see everything in its entirety from inside. If you don't go above it, for example, in a helicopter. The further the helicopter rises into the sky, the more visible it is...
Namely, the longer-term chart you look at, the clearer the picture becomes. It is impossible to observe what is happening inside the day. You need to be a banking insider to extract profit from the rapid sharp waves of intraday. Traders, for the most part, are simple people and do not have insider information. This means that we need to act differently.
Because of the thirst for profit or fear, any forecast made for the medium-and long-term Outlook is blown to smithereens, as soon as the Market creates fluctuations in both directions for an impressive distance. You can sit at the monitor all weekend, carefully thinking and planning your actions in the Market, and on Monday morning be in a state of incomprehension of what is happening. At the same time, after some time, it becomes clear that the original intentions were correct... The market has already 'thrown off' the trader, and we can only reproach our own discipline...
Being on the stadium stand, it is easy to understand where to roll the ball, or where to run the football player - everything is visible. But it is difficult to make the right exact decision while on the field, when well-prepared opponents are running towards you. This is again, by the way, about the picture as a whole. If you are unlucky enough to be an insider , you should not be discouraged. And you need to resort to the tactics of mid-term \ long-term (within reasonable limits, of course, from a technical point of view), which significantly increases the chances. History shows that such tactics are most profitable and less risky. And most forecasts are often correct, but not worked out, as seen initially, for all the same reasons mentioned above. Any analyst from any field will confirm that the longer the time period is considered, the more accurate the analysis is.
So isn't there a whole half of the solution to the problem...? That is, you need to be very patient, and even believe your forecast. And look less at the intraday charts. Only then can you start planning directly.
It is possible to discuss for a long time why the European currency has worse prospects than its American competitor... But the analysis was done. The fundamental picture is clear. Power levels are visible. The possible risks are known. All that remains is to “line” the pending orders on the charts.
At first glance, it may seem like a grid (martingale). But no. This is not true. Placing orders should be carried out on the power (psychological) levels: peaks and troughs, borders of channels and triangles... And if you clearly use only them (levels), the number of pending orders placed will be small (for example, 4-5). And this can't be called a martingale. This is a competent averaging, in accordance with the forecast. After all, it is already known that it is difficult to catch a peak or a depression. Averaging helps you enter the trend and not miss a possible continuation of the movement. In reasonable amounts (in relation to the balance), this is not fatal and even useful, if the forecast is correct, of course.
If the trader has put aside the 'wrong' forecast and adopted the “correct ' forecast, moreover, he is confident in it and in himself, then this is the second half of the solution to the problem. It would seem that this is all science...
But then comes a difficult waiting period - the main job of a trader, during which the Market will repeatedly affect the psychology of each bidder. And this is where the main danger lies - the Psychology of the trader.
It is not difficult to predict the price movement. It is not difficult to interpret the technical picture on the charts. You can get used to and learn the characters and behavior of currencies. You can even be a good fundamental analyst. But it is very difficult to control yourself. This is always the most difficult obstacle to overcome. And by the way, not only in trading, but also in life. For example, everyone knows that you can't smoke, but many people do. Everyone knows that you can't drink, but many people do. And most importantly, everyone knows that you can't lie, but they still lie. These are the most striking examples of the difficulty of overcoming the psychological barrier.
Writing these kinds of articles, reviews, and comments usually helps the author's discipline as well. Everyone finds ways to overcome the psychological obstacle for themselves. Then it's all good. The main thing is that it would work. Therefore, the initiative of the ForexDengi portal to create a NetAir for traders ' diaries is a very popular idea. And, as practice shows, it is very effective if you apply a comprehensive approach. But this is already from the category of strategy.
The main currency pair may well move North, being inside the downward trend. I have already said that I build forecasts of future movements at long intervals. Therefore, when considering the levels for placing pending orders, I often refer to the monthly, weekly and daily charts. First, it makes it easier to see where and what trend is prevailing, fading, or emerging. And secondly, as you know, the older time frames are more accurate. For example, when I look at the monthly chart, I understand the direction of the trend. This is backed up by a fundamental background, and therefore the most likely scenario. The weekly chart also shows, confirming the monthly one, that bears have come to the Market. And on the daily time frame, you can already clearly see the vertices on which you should place pending orders. When the direction of the EURUSD trend becomes obvious, even if the price has already passed a long distance to the South and is not far from its historical minimum extremes, it (the trend) continues. And continues until the opposite is confirmed. So storming the historical lows and continuing the attack up to the parity level is very possible. Now the level of parity in the pair looks attractive. It acts as a magnet, especially when there is no reason to be optimistic. Now seriously and for a long time this pair will feature a downtrend with sharp rebounds up. These bounces should definitely be used for selling. I put pending orders according to the most probable locations of the turns. The price may not reach the set levels. But we are on Forex. Everything is possible here. Therefore, it is recommended to always set take profits even at the most incredible levels. The same applies to pending orders. These are tools that should always be used. Traders who have been on Forex for at least a few years, know perfectly well that one day the price can quickly shoot in one direction, and just as quickly return back. Such moments happen up to several times a year. This could happen at any second. Therefore, the account has three deposits and one current one.
If the current position goes into the negative, this minus will be small (the account flexibility allows such a drawdown). If the price continues to move down, it means that you will have to hold the minimum lot for the time being. As strange as it may sound, in this current situation, it would be preferable to go slightly North. On the weekly chart, this is the upper limit of the channel on the candle before last. The price often jumps out of the borders of the corridors, so it can be touched by the tip of the”kangaroo tail'. By the way, even if it does not touch, and the price begins to return to the South, the operation to add lots can be performed manually (remove the deferred item and sell at the current price). Such actions will not affect the effectiveness and safety in any way. The upper border of the channel serves as a reference point, so it is not so important to go a little further, or a little closer - the main thing is near the level. Moreover, if you have to “suffer” a drawdown, it should be rewarded. This means that if the price approaching the sell stop does not touch it, and it does not work, this distance should be taken manually at the current price.
To be honest, I would not like the price to go to the third pending order. Too far away. However, if the bulls take the initiative for a while, they may well test the first crisis peak. But the situation in Europe is such that fundamental reasons for buying the Euro are not expected in the near future. This means that such unjustified growth should be sold. And by that time, the price will have passed a decent distance, which would activate the bears. Sellers will protect the level of the 14th figure with special rigidity. Therefore, another pending order is placed there.
The short trade planned was not triggered and the pair got good support at 1.084 level.
However, the bullish probability is reduced now (at today's opening) to only 12%. Hence closed part of the position at BE (1.0865) and expecting the pair to move northwards. Stop loss still sitting at 1.0811 (swing low).
EURUSD is the main currency pair in our time. The largest trading volumes. The largest 'audience'. In General, both volatility and the largest information spectrum are guaranteed. It is probably not misleading to say that the vast majority of traders have this currency pair in their portfolios. And all world economic and political events are easily reflected in the direction of this cross rate.
This means that it is easier to analyze such an exchange instrument than any other. Of course, there are specific nuances everywhere, but other things being equal, EURUSD is easier to analyze. Therefore, in a period of tension, or some confusion reigning in the markets, it is best to turn to the main currency instrument as a 'risk-anti-risk swing'.
Gold is an attractive asset during the crisis period, but the metal has strengthened strongly. It is too late (or too early) to think about buying gold. You need to wait for gold to adjust at least to its moving averages on the monthly chart.
Oil. What we observe has no precedent. The cost of a barrel fell to negative values. It would seem that this is the moment to buy. But don't rush it. Oil storage facilities are clogged and there is no demand. At the same time, we are still waiting for macro statistics on the consequences for the world economy. And the Coronavirus itself has not disappeared. It is only necessary to slightly lower the number of infections and deaths, as the governments of Western countries are already planning to open their economies, as if they no longer remember why they put everyone in quarantine.
All this is fraught with a second wave of the epidemic. When the reports for March and April for the leading countries are released, the picture will be depressing. The damage will be estimated in numbers that the world has not seen since the second world war, or has never seen at all. The media will constantly flash messages that this is unprecedented, that it is unprecedented, that it is disastrous, etc. But if against the background of such statistics, the authorities let people out on the streets, and they infect each other, triggering the second wave of the pandemic — it will be even worse than it is now. After all, no one thinks about it. But in vain.
There will be no V-shaped recovery. This is not even comparable to the 2008 crisis. The economy will take a long time to recover, so you can not rush to 'catch falling knives'. All the cheaper assets and instruments will not start a sharp recovery. They can easily draw a clear bottom on their long-term time frames, which will be clearly visible. But the bottom, apparently, is not that far away, but it is still too early to talk about it.
Almost all oil storage facilities are filled to the brim with oil. There's nowhere to put it. Global demand for black gold has fallen to record levels. Even a slight recovery in fuel consumption from China does not change the overall picture. At the moment, there is no reason to be optimistic and buy risky assets. Especially with the dollar rising in price across the entire spectrum of the Market.
If you only try to compare and imagine the scale of damage to the world economy, the current coronavirus crisis has already surpassed the crisis of 2008 in its scale. But the figures on macroeconomics have not been released yet. So negative information will continue to flow to the markets. And along with the negative, there will be no optimism.
If the entire ongoing crisis is correlated with the EURUSD pair, it is enough to remember which of the currencies in this pair is risky and which is anti-risk. This is a simple question. With a simple answer. When analyzing this pair, you should always remember that the European Union has many member countries. Managing the economies of several dozen countries is more difficult than managing the economy of a single country. Therefore, in this regard, the United States is in a better position. The ECB and the fed are already stimulating their economies. But the fed has already flooded the markets with several trillion dollars in liquidity, which at this stage is still enough to avoid causing a liquidity crisis. And the European Central Bank still continues to increase the volume of stimulus. In this respect, the dollar is also in a better position. Again, global demand for oil has fallen, and when oil becomes cheaper, the dollar becomes more expensive. Gold is also currently correcting after strong growth. But it can continue to grow at any time (so it is not recommended to buy this period).
When the economy begins to recover from the crisis, the American economy will recover faster than the European one. This also speaks in favor of the dollar. At the moment of recovery, a crisis of distrust and disagreement will break out in Europe. Reflections on the unity and inviolability of the idea of European integration will hang in the air. This week, the next EU summit. And if the leaders fail to agree on the release of “coronabonds”, thus distributing the financial burden among all the countries of the bloc, then thinking about the collapse of the EU will no longer seem unimaginable.
So to the question: 'Buy or sell?” the answer is clear - sell.
But it is difficult to jump on a volatile trend. Therefore, you should use pending sell orders near the power levels. This is if, for a certain period, the Market will respond with purchases to every news about fewer diseases, more people who have recovered, and, as well, any information concerning the relief of the situation with the coronavirus. In the same way, the Market can react with purchases if governments of different countries start launching their economies. However, all positive news will be overlaid by negative news, and will usually be reflected in the direction of the exchange rate.
After some time, the markets will realize that the situation is still far from normalization, and the growth that will be formed after the current fall will be completely absorbed. Some details of the picture may vary, but in General, the result itself (where the price moves) is already obvious, or assumed.
Fans of long-term strategies have probably already drawn a corridor on the monthly chart of the EURUSD pair (see the screenshot).
As you can see from the monthly chart, even the unthinkable is possible. In the spectrum of current events, the movement in the pair will rush to the level of parity, since this is the most attractive goal that is located nearby.. Some correction is possible when passing the zone of the first take profit (1.0566). A correction should be used to add volume to an existing sell position.
While the Market still does not know where to move. But this week we will see some volatility. In this case, it doesn't matter which way. Both options are acceptable and taken into account. If the price manages to move significantly South, then the upper pending sell orders can be removed, since when moving South, while in the profit zone, you should wait for a correction against the position. At the end of it - sell again, thus increasing the volume (lot) without leaving the profit zone.
In order for intraday fluctuations not to affect the decision, it is recommended not to look at them. To maintain your intentions, it is better to look at the trend periods-month, week, day.
It is recommended not to rush with sales of growth until the price is in the zone of the power level. But you shouldn't buy it either. Not under these conditions. Any growth is at risk of continuing the trend. The best tactic is to sell on growth.
Traders are waiting for a trigger that will move the Market anywhere. Tomorrow, on Thursday (23.04.20), the European Union summit will be held. From an analytical point of view, this is an important event that can be expressed in the nature of tomorrow's trading.
For this period of time, you should prepare for a possible increase in the EURUSD pair, and, upon reaching the first power zone, be ready to sell. In my case, the first force zone is the vertex formed by 15-14. 04. 20.
On the daily schedule through the top of the sales line. The nearest one is at 1.0980. There is a high probability that the event on Thursday will be sensitive for the Market (the results of the summit), and will give an opportunity to break out of the side corridor.
As always, there are only two options. If up, you can meet the price at the power levels, increasing the volume of the operation. This tactic increases the risks, but the reward for the risk increases multiple times. If down, with the lower border of the channel breaking through in the South direction, then you will temporarily have to move the position with a small lot, until there is a counter-correction against the position. After waiting for a convenient moment, you can add lots while already in the profit zone. This tactic allows you to always be in the +, and adding volume does not leave the “green zone”.
It is worth remembering the state of the Market. The condition is painful and nervous. The fluctuations may be noticeable against the background of comments and statements from each of the members of tomorrow's summit. If the decision is made unambiguously - 'Yes” or' no ' to joint Eurobonds, this will allow you to definitely exit the flat. If they start mumbling again and reschedule the meeting for the next meeting dates, this may again switch the Market only to events related to the coronavirus.
The EU summit, scheduled to be held via videoconference on 23.04.2020, will obviously not bring positive results within the framework of the agreement on joint recovery of European economies from the current crisis. Yesterday it became known that the proposed budget for 2021-2022 by the European Commission was not approved by the participating countries. They can't agree on the source of funding. And the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and Austria want to apply additional restrictions to such a program.
In such circumstances, we should expect a continuation of the downward trend in the EUR USD pair. But let's wait for tomorrow's summit. We will observe the development of events...
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