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Forecasts And Trade Ideas FX Currencies and Commodities
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itradeandwin

Member Since Feb 08, 2018  26 posts Mark (itradeandwin) Apr 06 2018 at 12:03
Would like to share forecast and trading ideas.

. Visit our web for more analysis and free trade setups.
itradeandwin

Member Since Feb 08, 2018  26 posts Mark (itradeandwin) Apr 06 2018 at 12:03
Asia Overview by Reuters:

The dollar index was down 0.1 percent at 90.359. The index has risen 0.4 percent this week.

Treasury debt prices gained and yields declined as investors sought the safety of government bonds.The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 2 basis points to 2.811 percent, pulling back from Thursday’s nine-day high of 2.838 percent.

Trump said late on Thursday that he had instructed U.S. trade officials to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs on China, fuelling the trade dispute between the world’s two economic superpower

Traders are focused on NFP. Considering USD’s recent strength, investors are positioning for a stronger labour-market number but there’s also plenty of room (in wage growth and the jobless rate) for a downside surprise, which makes trading NFP this month particularly difficult.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels:

We want to keep it simple for you. As shown in the H4 Chart:

EURUSD is below EMA 50, 100 and EMA 200. Golden Cross is very close. RSI is oversold. However, in the daily chart, RSI has room downside.

The main resistance zone – orange coloured- is 1.23000 – 1.23300. Above the resistance zone, 1.23600 will be the key level for the continuation of the upside move.

Below the current level, 1.22080 – 1.21780 ( Red Coloured ) zone is the main support. Break below this support will carry the price 1.21090 – 1.20900.

1.20900 was the breakout of the bullish triangle. 450 pips bullish move had started after the breakout of 120900. This level is likely to play a key support role. If EURUSD breaks below 1.20900, we can start to speak about a trend reversal and 1.17000.

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itradeandwin

Member Since Feb 08, 2018  26 posts Mark (itradeandwin) Apr 08 2018 at 12:31
GBPUSD Forecast and Technical Analysis Week 09-13 April

Before the forecast and technical analysis, I would like to take a look at our latest trade ideas.

We have a long trade based on Bullish Butterfly and we have reached the first target @ 1.40800.


And Long Trade based on Bullish CwH to add long for ISHS pattern.



Now, let us take a look at the fundamentals:

NFP report was highly disappointing. However, I do not think that would make a too much negative effect on US Dollar. Subsequently, the US unemployment rate also dwelled at the unchanged level of 4.1% instead of falling lower to 4.0% as expected by the market.

The weak UK PMIs did not help Cable to fall below 1.39600. Market players are expecting further rate hikes from BoE as we mentioned in our previous forecast.

The main topic haunting the financial markets was the ongoing trade wars between the US and China.

Technically:

The main trend is still bullish.

On the Daily Chart, the price is above EMA 50,100 and 200.

1.39600 is EMA 50 support of the Daily Chart. That’s why we pay attention to this level. The midterm bullish trend will continue as long as the price holds above 1.39600.

1.42500 as EMA 100 of the weekly chart, acts as a resistance. We can see the price is “locked ” between 1.39600 – 1.42500 – almost 300 pips –

On the H4 Chart: – To see the intraday levels –
1.41000 is the key level for the continuation of the bullish move. If the price breaks above 1.41000, Cable is likely to test 1.41280 and 1.41600.

Below the current level; 1.40800 and 1.40600 are the first levels to test. 1.40380 is the key support. Break below 1.40380 will carry the price 1.40000 and 1.39600 again.

DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money
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itradeandwin

Member Since Feb 08, 2018  26 posts Mark (itradeandwin) Apr 09 2018 at 06:03
EURAUD Falling Wedge and Long Opportunity

Chart timeframe: H4

Description: EURAUD completed Falling Wedge pattern. Possible to retest the wedge – 1.59600- and move up. Retracement towards 1.59500 can be used as buying opportunity.

TRADE: LONG

AREA OF THE ENTRY: 1.59800 – 1.59500 Wait for the pullback as described in the chart.

TARGET 1: 1.60700

TARGET 2: 1.61500

INVALIDATION/STOP LOSS LEVEL: 1.58500

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itradeandwin

Member Since Feb 08, 2018  26 posts Mark (itradeandwin) Jun 08 2018 at 08:41
EURUSD Forecast And Technical Analysis 06-08-2018

On the Euro side, Italy is still a risk for investors. The market’s attention is focused on next week’s ECB meeting. Fundamentally there was nothing to boost to push EURUSD higher.

On the Dollar side, USD has lost its charm as Trump protectionism announcements are triggering countermeasures from multiple fronts that will end up weighing on economic progress in the world’s largest economy. And the economic figures are not promising, and doubts occurred about the further rate hikes.

There is no strong data flow today. German Industrial Production and Trade Balance will be released.

The pair has tested 1.18400 which is the Fibonacci 38.20% major resistance. As seen on the H4 chart timeframe 1.18400 is the extremely overshoot level of MM Lines and EMA 200 resistance

1.17800 is the first level that the pair will test. Break below 1.17800 may carry the price 1.17620 and 1.17500.

1.17200 is the major support of the latest bullish movement. Midterm Bearish pressure will continue as long as the price holds below 1.18400.

Visit our website for more


 
DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money
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itradeandwin

Member Since Feb 08, 2018  26 posts Mark (itradeandwin) Jun 12 2018 at 06:10
GBPJPY Technical Analysis And Trade Idea

GBPJPY ended the day above EMA 50 and EMA 100 of H4 Chart Time Frame. Dragon reversed from the trendline support. The midterm trend is bullish.

Fibonacci 61.8 and MM 6/8 is located at 147.600. Break below 147.600 will carry the price 148.400 of MM 6/8 Major resistance.

The second resistance is at 147.750 – EMA 200-

We have two closed trades which generated 240 pips. Our Trade idea is :

TRADE: LONG

ENTRY: 147.230

STOP: 146.500

TAKE PROFIT 1: 148.400

TAKE PROFIT 2: 149.150

Alternative Trade idea for conservative traders:

TRADE: LONG

ENTRY: 149.750 – Close above –

STOP: 147.000

TAKE PROFIT 1: 148.400

TAKE PROFIT 2: 149.150






DISCLAIMER: This is a technical analysis study, not an advice or recommendation to invest money

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itradeandwin

Member Since Feb 08, 2018  26 posts Mark (itradeandwin) Jun 18 2018 at 05:50
The rumours that Saudi Arabia and Russia might decide to increase production caused oil prices to fall to close to 3 % on Friday. Meanwhile; U.S. exports were threatened by potential Chinese tariffs on crude oil and refined products.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have already boosted production modestly, and have indicated they were prepared to increase output at that meeting.

Some investors were surprised when crude oil and other energy products were included for tariffs at a later date, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing the Tariff Commission of the State Council.

Over the past six months, the United States has exported an average 363,000 bpd of crude oil to China, which along with Canada is the biggest buyer of U.S. crude.

Technically:

The short term trend is bearish.

A bearish flag formation completed in the H4 chart. The target of the formation is 62.80.

Crude ended the week 64.24 which meets Fibonacci 78.60 %. At the same level, we see the MM 0/8 Main Support.

From the indicator’s point of view, The price is below EMA 50 and EMA 100 in the daily chart. 62.50 is the main support of the prices.

Key Levels: On the upside 64.45 and 64.80 are the resistance levels. We plan to use possible pullbacks towards those levels as selling opportunities. 62.50 is the main support of the midterm bullish trend. A daily closing below 64.00 USD will carry the prices to 62.50.

Our Bias: BEARISH with the target 62.50

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itradeandwin

Member Since Feb 08, 2018  26 posts Mark (itradeandwin) Jun 20 2018 at 06:26
GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Bullish Bat Pattern

Fundamentals:

On the Sterling side, we will have a quite London session with no major macroeconomic data release.

Brexit negotiations continue to grind to a stuttering halt, with key drafts from the June EU summit showing little to no resolutions to the current Irish border issue, and the EU’s Bernier is warning people that they need to be prepared for all possible outcomes, including a “hard Brexit” scenario, one where the UK goes ahead with separating from the EU without any kind of trade agreement in place.

Traders’ focus will remain locked on the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) rate decision, due on Thursday at 11:00 GMT, where the BoE is expected to hold off once again on a rate increase.

On the USD side, we will have Home Sales figures which seems to be a fewer effect on the pair. Brexit and Trade Wars are likely to remain as the determining factors .

Technically:

Cable is trading 1.31600 as of writing.

From the indicators point of view; 1.30600 appears to be the main support for the pair as the MA 100 in the weekly chart. The near-term trendline support is located at the same levels.
On the H4 chart; 1.31540 and 1.31200 are the key support levels. If the pair closes the day below those support levels, the next target will be 1.30600 – 1.30400 zone.

On the H1 chart, we see a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern. Today we will start to buy GBPUSD for midterm purposes. Our stop loss is 1.29000 and targets 1.33000 and 1.34200.

Intraday Trade Idea is to follow the bullish bat formation. Long entry zone 1.31600 – 1.31200 , stop loss 1.30400 targets 1.32800 and 1.33500.



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alexforex007

Member Since Oct 11, 2013  755 posts alexforex007 Aug 23 2018 at 07:15
Oil in an interesting resistance

WTI oil has rallied from the 200 day EMA (blue line) at the 64.38 level to the 55 day EMA (purple line) at the 68.00 level. Usually, when the price of an instrument makes this type of movement it stays bouncing up and down between the two moving averages. Therefore, the price may bounce to the downside from the 68.00 level due to the confluence of the moving average and the round number level. In case of a bearish bounce, the 66.27 may act as support, but a better support is at the 200 day EMA. On the other hand, if the price breaks to the upside, above the 68.00 level, its next resistance could be the 70.00 level. Above the 70.00 level, WTI oil could have the road clear to visit the peak at the 75.00 level.



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alexforex007

Member Since Oct 11, 2013  755 posts alexforex007 Sep 11 2018 at 03:50
The Dollar index is still consolidating around the 95.00 level without a clear direction. To the upside, the 96.00 level could act as resistance, but the index would have to break above the 97.00 level to keep its longer term bullish trend. Below the 95.00 level, its next support could be the 94.00 level, followed by the 200 day EMA around the 93.50 level, but a better support is at the low of the 93.00 round number level.



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