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"Just Oil"

Apr 29, 2011 at 16:28
48,473 Views
1,794 Replies
Member Since Jan 09, 2011   23 posts
Sep 24, 2011 at 04:18 (edited Sep 24, 2011 at 04:19)
Perhaps you can try to get the statistic of your trade trigger. How much pips it usually run to ? then get an median for your trade trigger..

e.g. my trigger usually run to 200-300pips as i trade mainly on H1 & H4.

30-50 - 20% of the time
100-150 - 60% of the time
200-300 20% of the time

So now i set my profit taking all around 100-150 region and that really optimised my gain. Before this i try to use TP 30-50 and even tried TP 200-300... but both settings comes to very low monthly performance.

I'm sure some times the trade move way further than you tp point alot, but if that chances is low, we shouldnt be trading that.

Just focus trade on the highest probability of TP level should optimised the overall gain. You need to have the statistic of your trade trigger then.



   Chikot posted:
   I am down today too, but started getting a footing as I feel it.
again, I was up 25-35 pips on my first trades but ended all BE, before Nymex opened than all hell broke lose. Incredible volatility. 5-15 min candles pretty much were useless, I started only getting what I wanted after moving to just 1 min which worked well this time. Nevertheless could not trade back losses incurred while getting i trades on 5 min.
I have started having idea of what it might be my new plan for new schedule. will be checking charts on weekend and put it down on paper.
First of all if I am looking for 40-50 pips daily I should not let trade go against my BE stop and I wonder how can I decide whether to close the trade or let itr run some more. I had trades 25-35 and they reversed and stopped me out. and some were trades that went a lot of pips. I wonder if 1 min chart can be used as one watching to close trade if price stops moving in my direction.
In any case I am cutting leverage down to $0.01 per pip and will bring it back to 0.02 after I have winning week.
Daily goal is 40-50 pips and I am going to close trades at profit whenever I feel they reverse. out of those 3 that got stopped at BE before Nymex non was actually a loser. price hit stop and went where I expected. may be I move stop too early. i usually move it after 15-20 pips in profit.
T1FX, Making Money Is Automatic
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 25, 2011 at 10:55
T1FX, thank you for input. I remember when I only started I actually had many pages with how many pips I picked or lost and where the price went later.
30 pips on average was what in most cases what a good profit per trade but not optimal at my previous mostly traded time but Nymex it must be different. I need to check all this.



   t1fx posted:
   Perhaps you can try to get the statistic of your trade trigger. How much pips it usually run to ? then get an median for your trade trigger..

e.g. my trigger usually run to 200-300pips as i trade mainly on H1 & H4.

30-50 - 20% of the time
100-150 - 60% of the time
200-300 20% of the time

So now i set my profit taking all around 100-150 region and that really optimised my gain. Before this i try to use TP 30-50 and even tried TP 200-300... but both settings comes to very low monthly performance.

I'm sure some times the trade move way further than you tp point alot, but if that chances is low, we shouldnt be trading that.

Just focus trade on the highest probability of TP level should optimised the overall gain. You need to have the statistic of your trade trigger then.



   Chikot posted:
   I am down today too, but started getting a footing as I feel it.
again, I was up 25-35 pips on my first trades but ended all BE, before Nymex opened than all hell broke lose. Incredible volatility. 5-15 min candles pretty much were useless, I started only getting what I wanted after moving to just 1 min which worked well this time. Nevertheless could not trade back losses incurred while getting i trades on 5 min.
I have started having idea of what it might be my new plan for new schedule. will be checking charts on weekend and put it down on paper.
First of all if I am looking for 40-50 pips daily I should not let trade go against my BE stop and I wonder how can I decide whether to close the trade or let itr run some more. I had trades 25-35 and they reversed and stopped me out. and some were trades that went a lot of pips. I wonder if 1 min chart can be used as one watching to close trade if price stops moving in my direction.
In any case I am cutting leverage down to $0.01 per pip and will bring it back to 0.02 after I have winning week.
Daily goal is 40-50 pips and I am going to close trades at profit whenever I feel they reverse. out of those 3 that got stopped at BE before Nymex non was actually a loser. price hit stop and went where I expected. may be I move stop too early. i usually move it after 15-20 pips in profit.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 25, 2011 at 11:06 (edited Sep 25, 2011 at 11:07)
My problem is different now. Try to wait for that trigger when there is only about 4 hours or less available to trade and at different time from when my most good trades were coming from.
My good results were going while I was able to trade full time. Since September 6, I am on reduced trading time diet.
It requires much adjustment.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 25, 2011 at 16:36 (edited Sep 25, 2011 at 16:37)
This must be a very serious lesson for me. If there is any change, schedule or anything in personal life like son birth and it both happened same day I must stop trading live and take a break or move to demo to adjust to new schedule. it has happened second time in one year. Last August I started trading and brought account to about 20% by Christmas when i also got another work with different schedule. i resumed trading in January and then had another schedule change cause moved yet to another work and January/ February I was going through huge losing streak losing 25% in 2 months then I stopped trading live and moved to demo Oil and started trading demo which people saw here.
Second time I made this mistake. I am not doing it again.
Now, this week I am reducing size to $0.01. If week is positive in good way I will bring position size back to $0.02. If it is positive but not in a good way I will keep size same and if I lose this week i will move to demo until I make at least 1 week positive in a good way.
I need to adjust now and create new routie around new hours. I only think doe sit worth to get up at 3:00 a.m. to try to get something till 5:45 a.m. as I am leaving at 6:00 or just trade only 9:40 a.m to 1:30 p.m.. At this time most of the time good profit target is 20-30 pips unless something special going on.
walker36
forex_trader_36599
Member Since May 13, 2011   1341 posts
Sep 26, 2011 at 16:38
this makes sense. until you recever you will move slowly and under control. 😉
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 26, 2011 at 21:56
Yes, I need to reduce it for a week. Technically speaking my DD happened because I did not take profits but took losses.
Too many BE trades, so I am taking profits, but miss a lot of good moves. Window is too narrow. I probably can get my best schedule back in the spring but for now I am stuck with this. I wonder should I get up early and watch may be something can come at night like today, but again I was too late.
Baby son having koliks which did not by the way let me stay in short trade yesterday. Tried twice but had to run and close at BE. If you check I shorted oil form 80.66 yesterday twice and twice had to close it. Pity.
walker36
forex_trader_36599
Member Since May 13, 2011   1341 posts
Sep 26, 2011 at 22:05
you are not the King anymore. He is the King.😄
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 26, 2011 at 22:08
Yes. Everyone bows to the King and changes his diapers 😉
londontradereuro
forex_trader_31696
Member Since Mar 11, 2011   4 posts
Sep 27, 2011 at 01:51
any of u programmers?send me an email im interested
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 27, 2011 at 21:21
I am moving to demo until I figure out a new way to trade in current schedule.
I am thinking of few options and from what I see with current schedule if I cannot figure out how to make things work with oil I will have to look elsewhere again. To trade oil I need to be in front of PC between 5-6:00 am.m to at least 12:00-1:00 p.m.


Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 27, 2011 at 21:22
a week or two of positive results will be enough.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 28, 2011 at 14:39
Working on different plan. most probably I will have to trade between 2:00 a.m to 5:30-6:00 a.m. and may be 10:00 a.m. -1:20 p.m. only 30 min after all news. and most probably not oil anymore until I have my schedule I had June-September. See no sense to trade it without best possible schedule. Will move to Eur/Usd only trading now. Used to trade the pair and 2:00-6:00 time is ok.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 29, 2011 at 09:20
E/U almost doe snot move. Had 4 trades. 2 went 15-27 pips in my favor an dhit BE stops. one was lost the the last i targeted just 30 pips and reasonable place but closed few pips above as price was failing to break and I have to go. so took it to cover my loss. I guess taking same number of pips I risk in such choppy condition would be better than looking for 1:2 or more R:R.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 29, 2011 at 09:23
damn, just hit my target but would probably hit my BE stop before that.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 29, 2011 at 14:55
too many BE trades. each BE stop means I had 10+ pips. amazingly slow moving market this week. hopefully this one will run.
Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 29, 2011 at 14:57
I do not want to scalp/.
walker36
forex_trader_36599
Member Since May 13, 2011   1341 posts
Sep 29, 2011 at 15:13
you break my heart😀


   Chikot posted:
   I do not want to scalp/.
Member Since Jun 12, 2011   51 posts
Sep 29, 2011 at 15:29
Chikot,

Why the aversion to scalping?

You should take what the market offers to you, with no taboos.
This is how i see it. I never understood why people discard scalping and see it as a low level of trading or something like that,
I do everything needed to take pips off the market. If what the market is offering is more suitable to scalping, then that it is what i'm going to do. If the market is more suitable to swing trading, no problem, I'll do the dancing. If you say' i dont want to scalp' i think you are limiting yourself for no reason.

Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 29, 2011 at 16:07
Yes, that's true. Today I had 5 BE trades. each went 10+ pips in profit up to 27 and I got nothing. The loss was only one.
The problem is that I think that if I start taking small pips I will not be able to take bigger pips when market starts running.
The problem seems to be how to determine when to take profit.


   trader757 posted:
   Chikot,

Why the aversion to scalping?

You should take what the market offers to you, with no taboos.
This is how i see it. I never understood why people discard scalping and see it as a low level of trading or something like that,
I do everything needed to take pips off the market. If what the market is offering is more suitable to scalping, then that it is what i'm going to do. If the market is more suitable to swing trading, no problem, I'll do the dancing. If you say' i dont want to scalp' i think you are limiting yourself for no reason.


Member Since Jan 14, 2010   2299 posts
Sep 29, 2011 at 16:11
will try to take it into my plan. But the question to be answered how to decide whether to take pips that i have even if it is equal or smaller than risk or not.
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