To use chat, please login.
Back to contacts

How reliable is backtests?

CrazyTrader (CrazyTrader)
Sep 23 2014 at 12:52
1718 posts
Many people think backtesting is for testing past. No it doesn't. Backtesting is designed to check if EA you coded run as expected. If not, then it means you have to modify logic code until you get what you want. That's is.

Rihan
RSTrading
Sep 23 2014 at 13:06
385 posts
oh ok.. Then I have been under the wrong impression for years.. So backtesting will not give you past performance? You will only be able to see if your coding was done right.

Rihan
RSTrading
Sep 23 2014 at 13:25
385 posts
Is there a way then to see how your (already established 100% working and doing what you want) EA performs on historical info?

theHand
Sep 23 2014 at 13:39
365 posts
I test. Never bothered with backtesting. It's useless.

theHand
Sep 23 2014 at 13:42
365 posts
@CrazyTrader

Well it's pretty useless for that as well. Try more than 1 pair....

theHand
Sep 23 2014 at 13:43
365 posts
RSTrading posted:
Is there a way then to see how your (already established 100% working and doing what you want) EA performs on historical info?


Nope, as I said, use a different platform. Your only hope.

Rihan
RSTrading
Sep 23 2014 at 13:44
385 posts
@theHand Surely it will give you a rough idea if you are wasting your time or not..

theHand
Sep 23 2014 at 13:49
365 posts
Probabaly already made you throw some very good systems in the dustbin and made you try losing ones.

Look do the test, take your EA run it for a week, then back test the same week. Compare the results. If you can run it on a second broker.

You'll end up with three sets of results.

You just can't build a future on that. And you're wasting your time trying.

My advice to you. Test live, you see very quickly if you like the system or not.

Rihan
RSTrading
Sep 23 2014 at 18:29
385 posts
Thanks, will try that, and will take your advice..

theHand
Sep 23 2014 at 20:21
365 posts
Look even on live tests, I've got one on O running two accounts same code, just different trade sizes.

One has 11 trades open the other 20. The difference ? The spread. I have code watching what's going on spread wise and it will sit on it's hands if it doesn't like the spread. We're talking milliseconds here between quires.

You're not going to get an accurate results from a free piece of software that makes up data is it goes along. Next back test you run look at the bottom right corner. See the data coming through. Then run it again, it will pull data again. So what it pull through on the previous test that it doesn't have now ?

This is before spread problems, server problems and so forth that just doesn't feature in the backtests. The differences between running live and back testing will be anywhere from 20%, 50% up...

Please login to comment .