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Making sense of a rise in price (AUDUSD)

theHand
Jan 12 2015 at 06:30
365 posts
@phenomenon90

It doesn't help to try do fundamentals in markets that's this openly and heavily manipulated. Normal market forces are not at work and is unlikely to ever be unless people start going to jail, and that's unlikely to happen.

Do you know why your car runs ? Do you really need to know ? You put fuel it goes....

Fx is a bit like that. I don't know why AUD is moving I don't really care either. Just doesn't matter. You can't predict fx, you can't read it. Your average hedge fund life span is about 5 years, so neither can the guys who spend millions hiring the best minds they can afford to try predict it.

So don't worry why stuff happens. Just go with whatever is happening.



phenomenon90
Jan 12 2015 at 07:49
3 posts
Thank you guys for your responses, you've given me a few things to think about and look out for.

It's good to know there are those who can make some sense of this even if it may take a while to understand

mavericks
Jan 12 2015 at 07:53
110 posts
CrazyTrader posted:
Don't be jealous like that...


There is nothing about you to be jealous about....you are just overconfident kid with absolutely nothing to show ,faking to be expert, .....

....actually Iam sorry for you

Get investors and get paid 15 percent of theyr profits. More on my website.
mavericks
Jan 12 2015 at 07:59
110 posts
theHand posted:
@phenomenon90

It doesn't help to try do fundamentals in markets that's this openly and heavily manipulated. Normal market forces are not at work and is unlikely to ever be unless people start going to jail, and that's unlikely to happen.

Do you know why your car runs ? Do you really need to know ? You put fuel it goes....

Fx is a bit like that. I don't know why AUD is moving I don't really care either. Just doesn't matter. You can't predict fx, you can't read it. Your average hedge fund life span is about 5 years, so neither can the guys who spend millions hiring the best minds they can afford to try predict it.

So don't worry why stuff happens. Just go with whatever is happening.




Actually there is a method to read the markets. Its called VSA (Volume spread analysys).
Most sucesfull trader I know is using it.

It basically compares volume of candle with range and type of the candle.

Premise is that smart money cannot hide themselves because of super high volumes on some candles. Range of candle and subsequent movement, will tell you about they intention.

Method is very effective and works even better on stock.

But guess what ?

True volume is one of the most hidden info on the market ever.

This guy I know figured out a way to read it from futures volumes.

Cool stuff

If you are interested in method PM me

Best regards

M

Get investors and get paid 15 percent of theyr profits. More on my website.
theHand
Jan 12 2015 at 13:33
365 posts
Your premise is flawed mate. You can hide most activity by simply spreading it out over time. That's before Bernanke or banker of the day wants a market move and then talks it into the direction he wants or dumps 500T of gold they don't have early Monday morning.

And as you pointed out there are no accurate volumes for fx.

No mambo jumbo big word this, big word that, is going to help in current market conditions.

mavericks
Jan 12 2015 at 14:52
110 posts
theHand posted:
Your premise is flawed mate. You can hide most activity by simply spreading it out over time. That's before Bernanke or banker of the day wants a market move and then talks it into the direction he wants or dumps 500T of gold they don't have early Monday morning.

And as you pointed out there is no accurate volumes for fx.

No mambo jumbo big word this, big word that, is going to help in current market conditions.


Mate, no mumbo jumbo

First of. Its not my premise, not my theory, unfortunatelly I didnt came up with it. Its a fact.
You are correct , you hide your activity by spreading it over time - its called accumulation and distribution.

There are differnt ways to do it, every one of them will be expressed differently.

I will tell you example: Imagine long lasting uptrend. Suddenly smart money notice weakness in the background (this may be anything, that wide public has no clue about) . At this point is good time to sell the assets - distribution. They will use positive news regarding instrument to get the public buying into uptrend while liquidating they positions in profit. This takes time based on size of trend. But it cannot be completely hidden despite the best efforts. There will fakeouts, shakeouts and plenty of meoney making maneuveres to remove people trying to get short. Afterward price will fall like a brick.

They cannot hide that there is an efford in form of volume and no candle range in new hights -result.

Kapish ?

Get investors and get paid 15 percent of theyr profits. More on my website.
mavericks
Jan 12 2015 at 14:53
110 posts
Also there is a way to read volume - from futures. I know person doing that.

Get investors and get paid 15 percent of theyr profits. More on my website.
theHand
Jan 12 2015 at 15:10
365 posts
I also know people who do things. They all swear by their things. Doesn't mean they have any idea better than the next guy.

I saw it years ago, get a few guys in a chat room, get them to make calls, different methods, different calls, often apposing, you come back few years later they're still there calling against each other and everyone of them is making money and they'll all swear by their calls, even though it's derived from different methods.

Reality is it's not their calls that's making the money. Investec proves this every year, guy in a monkey suit throws darts at the newspaper to select the shares for the portfolio and every year the monkey beats the best minds in the industry.

So your buddies methods, the next guys method, the guy in the monkey suit's method, all the same more or less. It's a reason to get in and then the work starts.

Sure you can get futures volumes, but that isn't the whole fx market is it ? It's just another derivative on the underlying.

mavericks
Jan 12 2015 at 15:59
110 posts
One thing is to talk the talk, another one is to walk the walk.

I saw the traders statement.

You have right to believe or disbelieve anything you want.

Get investors and get paid 15 percent of theyr profits. More on my website.
theHand
Jan 12 2015 at 17:45
365 posts
I saw an alien once.

Point is for @phenomenon90 's benefit and not your ego, that he doesn't really need to understand or even know why something's doing what it's doing to make money from it.

Why is oil down so much ? Who knows, but it's cheap, get some. Simple as that.

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