The recent market news comes from Trump, but judging from the market reaction, we are still relatively calm. After all, judging from the past situation, the leaders of developed countries have basically recovered from illness, and only countries with poor conditions will have death cases.
What is worth noticing, or interesting, is the 'knee jerk reflex' choice of investors. In the September lecture, we talked twice about the possible market reaction after the election results. Judging from this week's trend, the performance of most assets is still in line with speculation and expectations. We basically define Trump's reelection failure as a result of small probability. In this case, the risk aversion brought by the uncertainty in the short-term market will lead to a certain market - the stock market falls, the risk assets are under pressure, and the US dollar benefits in the short term. However, after certain adjustments, the market will be more conducive to go further and longer, because there will be less confrontation and friction in the global scope.
On the contrary, if Trump's re-election is successful after the minor episode, it is likely that the pattern will be completely opposite.
At least, the medium and long-term risk appetite will deteriorate greatly. Of course, there are various kinds of market attention around Trump's topic. A lot of interesting investors even give trump a good plan.
For example, by deliberately or pretending to get sick at this node, and then return to the king with a healing posture to improve the support rate and so on. These speculations are unfounded and, if possible, not verified by facts.
Back to the market itself, in the state of big news and non-agricultural data, the trend of most assets last week is still good. The results have clearly told us that consolidation and consolidation are still the main direction before the election results. Unless there is a black swan from Trump itself, there will be no reason for structural changes in the market.
On Gold & Silver: the short-term rebound is basically in place, and the market has the opportunity to launch the last round of bottoming, and then form a medium-term bottom, and then open a new way of large-scale upward.
About the US stock index: there is resistance at the top and support at the bottom. It is difficult to have a trend trend in a short period of time.
On crude oil: fundamentals have always been bad for oil prices, and uncertainty is also a minus factor. It is expected that the pressure trend will continue and it is difficult to return to the turning point above 42 / 45.
About the dollar: it's basically a mirror image of the euro. Euro volatility began to decline, weekly level adjustment continued. In other words, the probability of a relatively weak and slow rebound in the US dollar index is high. At the end of the day, if trump is really cool because of his new crown, don't hesitate. It is the best choice to short the dollar in the medium and long term.
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