Avoid trading on macroeconomic data(brexit)

Jun 22, 2016 at 11:58
1,170 Views
28 Replies
Member Since Sep 20, 2014   365 posts
Jun 26, 2016 at 02:16
@gatoreyefx

I think EA's are to slow for that kind of market. Thank heavens I went in there with decent code and speed or my results would look very different.
Member Since May 11, 2011   235 posts
Jun 27, 2016 at 15:10
theHand posted:
Probably just luck @xgavinc .

I don't get too many BREXIT's to try my luck on. Sadly. So very hard to build a statistical picture on how I really do on these events. Few more events like this a year be nice, but I guess that would be too easy...

Point is though, that I'm trying to make to the rest of the posters here, that if one can trade through an event like this and come out smelling like roses, then NFP and the rest of them just doesn't matter. All you need is well thought out and well designed system. If you can't even handle NFP then there's something wrong with your methods.

Some of my trades were already open and profits taken, as you say, luck. I made a few extra post outcome (manual trades, my EA's are working on 4H time frame, so decided to jump in post outcome), I would say the manual trades were based on information (not luck), and current open trades as well, I think 'teething problems' for the UK in the near (possibly foreseeable) future will keep my view on GBP as bearish. One surprise I had was gold, I expected a slump but investors ran there as a safe-haven (an oversight on my part)... recovering on gold atm, not a big issue. Overall a pleasant outcome.
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Member Since Sep 20, 2014   365 posts
Jun 27, 2016 at 23:55 (edited Jun 28, 2016 at 00:02)
South African eh ? Kan jy die taal praat ?

Be very careful with shorting gold. That's a peg just waiting to break.
Member Since Nov 21, 2011   1718 posts
Jun 28, 2016 at 06:49
I wish it's Brexit everyday.

Last week: 1 trade on GbpJpy closed in 53 min: + 965 pips

Today: 12 trades on GbpUsd & GbpJpy: + 628 pips
Member Since May 11, 2011   235 posts
Jun 28, 2016 at 08:06
theHand posted:
South African eh ? Kan jy die taal praat ?

Be very careful with shorting gold. That's a peg just waiting to break.

Natuurlik, ek praat en skryf dit baie goed. ;-)

Duly noted on the gold, I have set it to go long only. One easily forgets that over the long term commodities will always rise, so if going short you have to be absolutely certain (or specialize in just one commodity).
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Member Since May 11, 2011   235 posts
Jun 28, 2016 at 08:14
CrazyTrader posted:
I wish it's Brexit everyday.

Last week: 1 trade on GbpJpy closed in 53 min: + 965 pips

Today: 12 trades on GbpUsd & GbpJpy: + 628 pips

Well, there is possible Sottish referendum, US pres election and some birds singing in the oil industry (which has been overshadowed by Brexit) to look out for. Still quite a few 'white swan' events to come.
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Member Since Sep 20, 2014   365 posts
Jun 28, 2016 at 08:29
@xgavinc

It's much more than just commodities are going to rise. Every now and then someone dumps 500T's of gold into quiet markets (normally Sunday evening). It's been kept low purposefully by someone with very big pockets. In effect it's a peg.

Remember what happened when the CHF peg broke ?

Physical is disconnected from the quoted price of gold anyway. You'll pay a premium if you want gold if you can find it. It's just a question of time before that peg breaks, and I won't trade against a peg if I were you.

The estimates are anywhere form $12 000 an ounce to $53 000 an ounce if the US is forced onto a gold standard. And Greenspan just called for it: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/greenspan-warns-crisis-imminent-he-urges-return-gold-standard

Shorting gold is playing with nuclear bombs. Never mind fire.

Member Since May 11, 2011   235 posts
Jun 28, 2016 at 09:07
theHand posted:
@xgavinc

It's much more than just commodities are going to rise. Every now and then someone dumps 500T's of gold into quiet markets (normally Sunday evening). It's been kept low purposefully by someone with very big pockets. In effect it's a peg.

Remember what happened when the CHF peg broke ?

Physical is disconnected from the quoted price of gold anyway. You'll pay a premium if you want gold if you can find it. It's just a question of time before that peg breaks, and I won't trade against a peg if I were you.

The estimates are anywhere form $12 000 an ounce to $53 000 an ounce if the US is forced onto a gold standard. And Greenspan just called for it: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/greenspan-warns-crisis-imminent-he-urges-return-gold-standard

Shorting gold is playing with nuclear bombs. Never mind fire.


Totally agree. CHF wasn't really a peg in the sense of a 'hidden' agenda though (you are describing more of a 'bubble' than a peg in gold), experienced traders would have known it existed (was put in place intentionally by the SNB), and they would have been cautious trading it (in the event that the SNB remove it again - which they did). I think most traders were unaware CHF was pegged (myself included), and that's what caused the chaos.

As you state, physical gold has little effect on the price (depending on the instrument), forex gold is spot price and many economic factors (GDP, interest rates, policies - world market) influence the price. By gold 'commodity' I mean it's traded as such (not physical, emotional)... when things go bad, everyone runs to gold increasing the price, and something is always going bad in the world, one never hears of investors leaving gold 'because times are so good!', but you always hear of them running to it when 'times are bad'.
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
Member Since Jan 30, 2017   12 posts
Feb 05, 2017 at 07:30
The macroeconomic data releases can be actually be absolutely opposite of what it expected which can ruin your news trades immensely. However, news traders can be very smart to place trades during the news hours or after few minutes of news to take advantage of the opportunity. Forex markets are highly derived by the macroeconomics releases. So, even if you are trading technically, it is mandatory to look into the data to save your trades from losses.
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