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snapdragon1970

Member Since Sep 12, 2015  1825 posts kieran (snapdragon1970) Dec 15 2015 at 12:18
Janet Yellen is guiding the Federal Reserve towards its first rate rise in a decade armed with traditional economic models that some economists worry could fail her in a world of massive money printing and near zero rates.

The 69-year-old economist argues the time is coming for a rate-lift-off even though inflation has yet to accelerate, trusting decades of studies that suggest a tight labor market eventually creates inflationary pressures.

It is a risky wager considering that global inflation is at historic lows and many central banks remain in an easing mode as their economies struggle to get any traction.

If she is right, Yellen, who has already presided over the end of the Fed's bond-buying stimulus program, will cement her reputation and that of her 'dashboard' that relies on long-established relationships between jobs, wages and prices.

If she is wrong, the Fed could join the European Central Bank and the central banks of Sweden, Israel and Canada, which have all tried, but failed, to escape the drag of zero rates in the wake of the 2007-09 financial crisis.

There are reasons to doubt conventional economic theory. Many economists predicted a spiral of falling prices when the U.S. jobless rate soared during the crisis and then thought inflation would rise when unemployment plunged. Neither happened, though Yellen has maintained this year that the Fed was on course for rate increases, which would be 'data dependent,' likely gradual, and with no pre-set path.

This shows Yellen 'is grounded in traditional modeling but she is well aware that there is uncertainty,' said Randall Kroszner, who served with Yellen as a Fed governor between 2006 and 2009.

'It is possible, though unlikely, the traditional models are just all wrong (and) we're in a whole new world. But she's not going to fly by the seat of her pants,' Kroszner said.

Yellen has made clear that models only serve as guideposts in a complicated decision-making process.

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery",James Joyce.
snapdragon1970

Member Since Sep 12, 2015  1825 posts kieran (snapdragon1970) Dec 15 2015 at 15:54
Will we see support at 926-930 level,might be a good place to go long,its coming near European close as well,keeping a close eye.

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery",James Joyce.
snapdragon1970

Member Since Sep 12, 2015  1825 posts kieran (snapdragon1970) Dec 16 2015 at 19:52
As expected,not much of a move,priced in,the move was months ago at the 525 level.Hope you didn't get burned guys.

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery",James Joyce.
snapdragon1970

Member Since Sep 12, 2015  1825 posts kieran (snapdragon1970) Dec 17 2015 at 11:02
We got a bounce off 883 during the Asia session,if we hit this level or today's high might be worth trading.

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery",James Joyce.
snapdragon1970

Member Since Sep 12, 2015  1825 posts kieran (snapdragon1970) Dec 17 2015 at 15:22
Did a long trade off the Asian bottom retest ,as I was saying earlier we might get a retest,which we did,price hit the upper BB,closed trade with points in the bag,Some times this is to easy and other times your view is wrong.

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery",James Joyce.
dianajs

Member Since Dec 09, 2015  705 posts dianajs Dec 18 2015 at 09:35
The pair reached 1.0800, it might bounce off that support before it tries testing it again.

snapdragon1970

Member Since Sep 12, 2015  1825 posts kieran (snapdragon1970) Dec 21 2015 at 15:17
Barclays,Euro to go sideways into new year,last GDP data might surprise.

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery",James Joyce.
snapdragon1970

Member Since Sep 12, 2015  1825 posts kieran (snapdragon1970) Dec 21 2015 at 16:30
Net bets on the $ trimmed,Citi from last Tuesday.

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery",James Joyce.
dianajs

Member Since Dec 09, 2015  705 posts dianajs Dec 22 2015 at 07:16
You're right. Sometimes I forget how dead the market tends to be around the winter holidays.

snapdragon1970

Member Since Sep 12, 2015  1825 posts kieran (snapdragon1970) Dec 22 2015 at 07:55
Euro stuck around the 900 handle,German data has no effect,6 mins to the European open.

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery",James Joyce.
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BOE's Governor Carney speech (3h 8min)
Good chance that BoE will make their mov...(10 min ago)
EURUSD 1.16092 GBPUSD 1.32461
USDJPY 109.925 USDCAD 1.33202

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