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kieran (snapdragon1970)
Dec 15 2015 at 12:18
1945 โพสต์
Janet Yellen is guiding the Federal Reserve towards its first rate rise in a decade armed with traditional economic models that some economists worry could fail her in a world of massive money printing and near zero rates.

The 69-year-old economist argues the time is coming for a rate-lift-off even though inflation has yet to accelerate, trusting decades of studies that suggest a tight labor market eventually creates inflationary pressures.

It is a risky wager considering that global inflation is at historic lows and many central banks remain in an easing mode as their economies struggle to get any traction.

If she is right, Yellen, who has already presided over the end of the Fed's bond-buying stimulus program, will cement her reputation and that of her 'dashboard' that relies on long-established relationships between jobs, wages and prices.

If she is wrong, the Fed could join the European Central Bank and the central banks of Sweden, Israel and Canada, which have all tried, but failed, to escape the drag of zero rates in the wake of the 2007-09 financial crisis.

There are reasons to doubt conventional economic theory. Many economists predicted a spiral of falling prices when the U.S. jobless rate soared during the crisis and then thought inflation would rise when unemployment plunged. Neither happened, though Yellen has maintained this year that the Fed was on course for rate increases, which would be 'data dependent,' likely gradual, and with no pre-set path.

This shows Yellen 'is grounded in traditional modeling but she is well aware that there is uncertainty,' said Randall Kroszner, who served with Yellen as a Fed governor between 2006 and 2009.

'It is possible, though unlikely, the traditional models are just all wrong (and) we're in a whole new world. But she's not going to fly by the seat of her pants,' Kroszner said.

Yellen has made clear that models only serve as guideposts in a complicated decision-making process.

kieran (snapdragon1970)
Dec 15 2015 at 15:54
1945 โพสต์
Will we see support at 926-930 level,might be a good place to go long,its coming near European close as well,keeping a close eye.

kieran (snapdragon1970)
Dec 16 2015 at 19:52
1945 โพสต์
As expected,not much of a move,priced in,the move was months ago at the 525 level.Hope you didn't get burned guys.

kieran (snapdragon1970)
Dec 17 2015 at 11:02
1945 โพสต์
We got a bounce off 883 during the Asia session,if we hit this level or today's high might be worth trading.

kieran (snapdragon1970)
Dec 17 2015 at 15:22
1945 โพสต์
Did a long trade off the Asian bottom retest ,as I was saying earlier we might get a retest,which we did,price hit the upper BB,closed trade with points in the bag,Some times this is to easy and other times your view is wrong.

dianajs
Dec 18 2015 at 09:35
823 โพสต์
The pair reached 1.0800, it might bounce off that support before it tries testing it again.

kieran (snapdragon1970)
Dec 21 2015 at 15:17
1945 โพสต์
Barclays,Euro to go sideways into new year,last GDP data might surprise.

kieran (snapdragon1970)
Dec 21 2015 at 16:30
1945 โพสต์
Net bets on the $ trimmed,Citi from last Tuesday.

dianajs
Dec 22 2015 at 07:16
823 โพสต์
You're right. Sometimes I forget how dead the market tends to be around the winter holidays.

kieran (snapdragon1970)
Dec 22 2015 at 07:55
1945 โพสต์
Euro stuck around the 900 handle,German data has no effect,6 mins to the European open.

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