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Trader or Gambler?

michaelbai (michaelbai)
Oct 26 2015 at 13:56
33 posts
snapdragon1970 posted:
michaelbai posted:
some gamblers also count cards to improve their chances or winning, so its not fair to say someone who analyzes before trading. They key is EDUCATED and VARIED analysis. The market is constantly changing, so why is it possible you can use the same singular method for analysis day in and day out?


You have to have some kind of method otherwise how are you going to know what works and what doesn't ,educated yes but the same analysis day in day out,ask any city trader,they stick with one method that works over a long period,tried and tested,yes the market is constantly changing,they sit and wait for the time their method works.


I agree, and as you pointed out, they wait to time their method for execution, the implication is it doesnt work all the time, but when the timing is right to utilize that 'tool' and a timing a trader will utilize a different 'tool' otherwise loose out on potential gains because of the lack of a tool, which is an underlying theme for why EAs work and/or don't work and a reason the less experienced/educated traders tend to experience loss more than win as they haven't developed their tools and the proper timing of these tools, but as anyone can point out, there is also a luck factor. But i gues this is the point the OP was trying to make in understanding if he/she is a trader or a gambler. I was just trying to make a distinction between those who are purely gambling ie randomly making clicks becuase they 'feel' a win is comming versus those who are using their own algorithms (even if they are not set 100% clearly that a maching could copy) who are taking into account the constantly changing markets, political environments, etc to make educated...investments. at the heart, we could say they are the same, as you said there is no such thing as a good gambler

Take Challenges Head On
CrazyTrader (CrazyTrader)
Oct 26 2015 at 14:01
1718 posts
Does the following theory makes sens to you.

A pure gambler must have more chance to be successfull at trading rather than a wannabe trader!?.... why?

A wannabe trader lose 90% sure!... while the the odd is 50%

takes 100 people trading randomly market... 50% chance that 50% of them are successfull. while 100 randoms traders, we got 90% of loosers!

Hummm how come?

togr (togr)
Oct 26 2015 at 14:11
4862 posts
CrazyTrader posted:
Does the following theory makes sens to you.

A pure gambler must have more chance to be successfull at trading rather than a wannabe trader!?.... why?

A wannabe trader lose 90% sure!... while the the odd is 50%

takes 100 people trading randomly market... 50% chance that 50% of them are successfull. while 100 randoms traders, we got 90% of loosers!

Hummm how come?


@CrazyTrader
You do not understand stats.
90% of retail traders fail.
It does not mean such trader lose 90% of their trades.
He can lose just 10% and has wrong trade size for example.

CrazyTrader (CrazyTrader)
Oct 26 2015 at 14:38
1718 posts
So you got my point:
A chilly gambler are more chance to be successfull by gambling same bet each time.

togr (togr)
Oct 26 2015 at 14:46
4862 posts
CrazyTrader posted:
So you got my point:
A chilly gambler are more chance to be successfull by gambling same bet each time.


No

michaelbai (michaelbai)
Oct 26 2015 at 14:48
33 posts
oh for sure the system equals out. i dont argue with you about this at all. this is the fundamental of how the markets operate. somebody must loose for others to win.

Take Challenges Head On
mennopet
Oct 26 2015 at 14:50
3 posts
its not that 50% of the traders are successfull because the market provides a 50/50 change of success.

This only means that you have 50% of succes at a single 1 to 1 trade, if you plan to let it run until you loose or win.

But the problem is that you can decrease your own probability even more that you can increase it.

Let me explain it with a casino example =p

When you gonna play roulette, and you gonna put your money on black or red, that you have nearly a 50/50 change of success on a single bet. Let's say you walk in with $10 and decide to put that on red, and if you win you walk out of the casino with $20, then you have a chance of almost 50% walking out the casino dubbelde your money!..

But in reallity, most people just walking into a casino and keep playing until they blow al the money they took, including the profits they made before....
This decrease the probability of succes..

This is the same in the forex market.. When you can't hold on to a solid money management plan, you will blown out of the game before you know your in there.. And there your 50% change of winning go's...

Even if you are capable of holding on to good MM, but you are to emotional to hold on to the market rules like you planned it, and you have a negative long term outcome because of that, you will die slowly and there your changes go

mennopet
Oct 26 2015 at 14:50
3 posts
keep in mind that the market have massive potential, but is at the same time one of the most dangerous things you can be in.

Therefor its really really important to know and plan what you do before you go in. Not only the entry of a trade, but also the way you want to manage your money on al fronts. How much you gonna risk, when your gonna take profit, calculate every thing you do and set goals when you gonna take profits out of your account.

snapdragon1970 (snapdragon1970)
Oct 26 2015 at 14:51
1944 posts
michaelbai posted:
snapdragon1970 posted:
michaelbai posted:
some gamblers also count cards to improve their chances or winning, so its not fair to say someone who analyzes before trading. They key is EDUCATED and VARIED analysis. The market is constantly changing, so why is it possible you can use the same singular method for analysis day in and day out?


You have to have some kind of method otherwise how are you going to know what works and what doesn't ,educated yes but the same analysis day in day out,ask any city trader,they stick with one method that works over a long period,tried and tested,yes the market is constantly changing,they sit and wait for the time their method works.


I agree, and as you pointed out, they wait to time their method for execution, the implication is it doesnt work all the time, but when the timing is right to utilize that 'tool' and a timing a trader will utilize a different 'tool' otherwise loose out on potential gains because of the lack of a tool, which is an underlying theme for why EAs work and/or don't work and a reason the less experienced/educated traders tend to experience loss more than win as they haven't developed their tools and the proper timing of these tools, but as anyone can point out, there is also a luck factor. But i gues this is the point the OP was trying to make in understanding if he/she is a trader or a gambler. I was just trying to make a distinction between those who are purely gambling ie randomly making clicks becuase they 'feel' a win is comming versus those who are using their own algorithms (even if they are not set 100% clearly that a maching could copy) who are taking into account the constantly changing markets, political environments, etc to make educated...investments. at the heart, we could say they are the same, as you said there is no such thing as a good gambler


When you start in any professional trading firm,you are told this is the product you are going to trade,nothing else,you will trade this your entire career,you know this product inside out,when it's cheap to buy ,when its good to sell,never mind looking at any chart,if you want to trade something else ,go find a job somewhere else.The trader has to act like that EA only better.

Thanks for your comment.

"They mistook leverage with genius".
snapdragon1970 (snapdragon1970)
Oct 26 2015 at 14:57
1944 posts
CrazyTrader posted:
Does the following theory makes sens to you.

A pure gambler must have more chance to be successfull at trading rather than a wannabe trader!?.... why?

A wannabe trader lose 90% sure!... while the the odd is 50%

takes 100 people trading randomly market... 50% chance that 50% of them are successfull. while 100 randoms traders, we got 90% of loosers!

Hummm how come?


Because they don't act like a professional Trader.

"They mistook leverage with genius".
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