This is that post on Forexpeacearmy.Can you please comment on it ?
Date of Post: 2011-01-09
Review: Ok looks good doesn't it, now time for reality FOLKS!
Go to their website and download the 8year Strategy tester report!
What do you see well I'll tell you:
From 13/02/02 to 05/04/02 there are 32 losers on in a Row Ouch!!
From 28/01/02 to 09/05/02 there is a running DD of 45.8%.
I hear people saying ok these things happen so what it made a nice profit after the 8yrs and continues to do so on the live statement RIGHT well WRONG!
Let's look at something here shall we.
Firstly yes 2002 was a long time ago but it counts remember the rule what has happened in the past can happen again PERIOD that's why we back test RIGHT!
Secondly take a close look at the lot size on that back test its 0.1 ($1) against a $2500 starting balance, and the current live statement is using 0.05 (50c) against a $250 starting balance that's 5 times bigger, because if they had deposited $2500 on the live statement 10 x $250 that 0.05 lot would be 0.5 ($5) 10 times more, are with me so far?
So now let's look at that 45.8% DD again based on the current lot size against balance on the live statement that would be 5 x higher 229% which makes the system this EA uses on current lot size untradeable, so those results are not a true reflection of a realistic return over a long period, to make it a tradable EA those lot sizes should be set 5 times LOWER @ 0.01 (10c) against the $250 balance and hence the returns are suddenly not so impressive!!
Over the 8yrs the returns average out @ around 16% per month with a running DD of 45.8% and don't forget the 32 losers in a row I don't think those stats are very impressive do you??
Sorry to be a party pooper but I'm sick of these sites claiming they are selling a Rolls Royce and providing a Mini yes they both get you from a to b but if you choose to drive the Rolls it will run out of Petrol before you reach your final destination more than once as well!!
And remember to maintain the monthly % returns you have to compound your lot sizes (increase them against your balance) so that 229% DD will always be a risk, even with the right lot size a 45.8% DD is quite a high risk to make a miserable 16% a month, in my opinion anyway!