KeltnerPRO - Jared Discussion

Tried backtesting KeltnerPro on USDJPY - keep getting 'OrderModify error 130' in the strategy tester's journal. 😞

Three more EU losses yesterday after being in substantial profit for a while and still no word from Jared on a tighter TP option. What is the matter here?

Any long EU breakouts are doomed as long as the Greek issue weighs. The bot (being a fairly simple code) has no way of seeing it. So you have every chance for a lengthy losing streak here. The US economy is consistently underscoring its recovery expectations, so the buck keeps plunging now and then on the US data releases but these breakouts are immediately capped by 'mounting fears over Greece' (I'm pretty sick of this cliche already - will eventually post their glossary). That's why the long EU breakouts never lead to new trends and the bot keeps hitting SLs - and will in all likelihood keep doing so until the Greek drama's yet another act is over but I expect it to last for most of this year.

Going back to the backtests, you can observe a similar situation in 2012. The same players, the same scenario, the same outcome. 'We won't cut on budget spending but we're confident a debt deal will be reached' - 'We're confident a debt deal will be reached but they have to cut on budget spending'. I'm going to go puke now.

Lastly, don't rest your hopes on the vendor making any adjustments to the strategy or opening any new settings in the EA parameters. He might be just that - a vendor - not a coder.

btanalysis posted:
Any long EU breakouts are doomed as long as the Greek issue weighs. The bot (being a fairly simple code) has no way of seeing it. So you have every chance for a lengthy losing streak here. The US economy is consistently underscoring its recovery expectations, so the buck keeps plunging now and then on the US data releases but these breakouts are immediately capped by 'mounting fears over Greece' (I'm pretty sick of this cliche already - will eventually post their glossary). That's why the long EU breakouts never lead to new trends and the bot keeps hitting SLs - and will in all likelihood keep doing so until the Greek drama's yet another act is over but I expect it to last for most of this year.

Prob been mentioned before, but as in all EAs in MT4, you can set it in properties to only short or long trades....good luck all......

spunta posted:
Prob been mentioned before, but as in all EAs in MT4, you can set it in properties to only short or long trades....good luck all......

How?

When you drag the EA on to the chart do you get the attached screen?

just change to only short or only long

spunta posted:
When you drag the EA on to the chart do you get the attached screen?

just change to only short or only long

Many thanks, pal!

btanalysis posted:

spunta posted:
When you drag the EA on to the chart do you get the attached screen?

just change to only short or only long

Many thanks, pal!

No problem

this EA not works so good！！！

shamanjay posted:
this EA not works so good！！！

PLEASE SHOW US A BETTER ONE !!!

Just what I've talked about earlier - the US data weaker than expected today yet EURUSD and GBPUSD are muted by the Greek default fears. No moves - no breakouts - no trades. And this is to last all the way until that Greek 'make it or break it moment' which may take many months to come.

btanalysis posted:
Just what I've talked about earlier - the US data weaker than expected today yet EURUSD and GBPUSD are muted by the Greek default fears. No moves - no breakouts - no trades. And this is to last all the way until that Greek 'make it or break it moment' which may take many months to come.

Look at it this way: with Greece, it's either deal or no deal. No way for them to last past May, simple math here. If it's deal, the Euro soars. If it's no deal, the Euro collapses. Either way, huge breakouts, new trends, and some big kahuna to be hit with this kind of a bot. Kind of like re-living late 2008 - early 2009. Yet nothing totally unforeseen, unlike with the EURCHF peg - who would be totally blown out of the water by either possible outcome of the two? Corect me if I'm wrong.

-30% after April already. Got to cut down on the risks or not too long before you're bust. Personally, I'll drop this bot if May turns out to be a second consecutive losing month after April.

btanalysis posted:
-30% after April already. Got to cut down on the risks or not too long before you're bust. Personally, I'll drop this bot if May turns out to be a second consecutive losing month after April.

Actually, already -38% after just another day. Tough stuff indeed. Jared, what do you say?

KeltnerPro didn't have to consecutive loosing months, so is a bit early to talk about a loosing system or no more suitable for current market condition. I think the keltner approach is really robust and (I hope) we should have good positive result in the long terms, where the long terms here means 2 years. In that context 2 loosing months can happen, the important thing is in my opinion that the EA is still consistent with his strategies and maxDD, and other key parameeters are still under control and in the range of our expectation. For example the expectancy of KeltnerPro is around 7 pip, based on hist figures we are still in the range so that's good, no reason to abandone the strategy. The only alert is in my opinion the DD that has to be monitored very carefully; if it pass our (financial ) capability than we can stop the strategy and looking for other opportunities.
Cheers
Xam

What's daunting here is an utter lack of any response or reaction from 'Jared' with his opinion on the prospects of his own bot.

Remember, your objective with this EA was to make some money trading while his objective was to sell as many copies of the EA as possible. These are two very different objectives.

Perhaps (and I'm assuming here), his bets are on a major breakout or a series of breakouts in the near future to make up for this month's huge losses due to his switch to an excessive manually entered fixed-lot trading.

What can get things back on track with the KeltnerPro strategy is either the US economy's steady improvement resumption and/or the Fed's interest rate hike OR the Greek affair finally decided either way for the time being (default or deal). If both the US and the Greek events take place at or around the same time, you'll have a royal flush with breakout strategies like that of KeltnerPro.

What I personally expect to see is neither any final outcome on Greece anytime soon, with the EU continuing to spill bits to the Greek government for months, as their talks drag on (possibly spiced up by some 'show for the poor', like a referendum, some riots, you name it) while the European QE gains momentum in the backstage, and the US economy continuing to disappoint us further on the other hand, whereas QE and near-zero rates to me are simply in no way a solution to the ongoing massive debt crisis at all levels. You can't solve an issue of grave indebtedness by creating even more of it - this time, in the form of swallen central banks' balance sheets.

While I don't regard myself to be a one-off financial prophet, I need an extra month of uninterrupted live trading with a well-coded breakout strategy (Jared's will do) to see if things are really going the way I envision them going. If we now get May as a second consecutive losing month, we can call quits on breakout trading for the time being unless and until substantial market changes hit. The stress test lovers might leave their automated breakout strategies running albeit with lowered risk but that's only if one has no better strategy for ranging markets at hand.

Last but not least, I am a very busy person and I don't charge cold hard cash for the EAs I develop - still, I manage to find a few minutes every other day to provide my input on the ongoing trading developments in this thread. 'Jared', whose pockets are by now stuffed with hefty cash of his EA users, doesn't bother. So it's one of the two to me: either he's a mere vendor who commissioned someone else to develop this EA for him or he genuinely doesn't give a damn about his paying customers. On that, you decide.

rickyb posted:

shamanjay posted:
this EA not works so good！！！

PLEASE SHOW US A BETTER ONE !!!

There are lot of EA's which can run for weeks, even some months,
but very less will survive years.

I have tried a more than ten ea's, but just lately i found some which really looks promising.

Green pips to everyone ;)

Say what you will. This bot is up considerably since last October. It can go down just a little more. Open up the attachment I posted. The time to turn it off is at equity high, which is just what I did. Turning it off at high DD now will only cut you off from the recovery period. When the recovery begins I will turn it back on. Be careful about the Greek thing going on. If the EU crisis is Greek to you then just remember it's more Greek to the Greeks themselves. A little less risk for now is suitable given the environment. See Jared's previous post on how to cut risk with Keltner. In the meantime, all is up to you.

It isn't that I think Keltner was bad it's not the reason I turned it off. It's because you can't always have it going up up up up up. Things correct themselves, including the up curves. At new highs I always shut it down for a while until the end of the next DD period. Just a suggestion.