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Advanced Trading Psychology in Erfahrene Trader Sep 11, 2025 at 06:14

You should not be surprised that you are not in control of your emotions if you are destroying your body and mind. Now we'll touch on the brain. Our brain is made up of four parts. The stem brain, we don't control it. The limbic system, which is the emotional brain, the reptilian or primate brain. The prefrontal cortex is what makes us human beings rational. The pineal gland or the intuitive brain.

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 10, 2025 at 16:52

To open long positions on an asset, you need to buy it from sellers. To open short positions, you need buyers so that, through a special loan agreement and subsequent repurchase, you have an asset that you can sell. But without going into too much detail, we all know that there are long and short positions in trading. Buyers accumulate positions at the expense of sellers, and sellers at the expense of buyers. Someone has to lose, but everyone wants to win. Markets move in two states: sideways and trends. Sideways movement is a kind of uncertainty. A trend, on the other hand, is general certain...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 10, 2025 at 16:34

I will add a bit of technical price action knowledge here. Price action really works on Daily and Weekly charts to be honest. All this lower timeframe is bullsh#t. So first we should start from Daily and Weekly timeframes because big players trade them... Lower timeframes we can use as confirmation but nothing hard... Traders usually don't care about the closing and opening of weekly and daily charts, even though this is very important. Every movement in the market means that someone voted with their money at some point, believing in something.

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 10, 2025 at 16:16

The dollar slipped a bit earlier in the U.S. session while futures bounced back after producer price data showed inflation pressures cooling slightly. That gave traders more confidence the Fed might keep cutting rates. Odds of a 50bps cut next week ticked up to 10%, and chances of back-to-back cuts through October are back near 80%.Still, no one’s going all-in ahead of Thursday’s CPI report. That number will be key for the Fed’s September decision and the bigger policy path. For now, markets are leaning dovish but staying cautious.Looking at today’s moves, the dollar lo...

Advanced Trading Psychology in Erfahrene Trader Sep 10, 2025 at 13:04

Psychology is overly emphasized in the trading industry, but unfortunately, even there, most people suffer from complete nonsense without understanding what and why it is needed.On the one hand, we can say that the results of our trading directly depend on who we are, but on the other hand, with a quality approach to trading, psychology may be of secondary importance. Personally, I am a proponent of an approach where the main factor remains the trading strategy, and psychology, as an assistant, allows me to implement it.Unfortunately for most traders, psychology does not solve the problem. It ...

Advanced Trading Psychology in Erfahrene Trader Sep 10, 2025 at 13:04

The first thing you need to understand is that your body is interconnected with your mind. This means that if you harm your body by drinking alcohol, smoking cigarettes, taking illegal substances, consuming too much sugar, and so on, then most likely the part of your brain responsible for emotions, the limbic system, will become overexcited, leading to emotional swings.If you are going through a very stressful period in your life, this pressure can spill over into your body. But in general, everyone has the same problem: an overactive limbic system, a poorly developed prefrontal cortex, and ho...

Advanced Trading Psychology in Erfahrene Trader Sep 10, 2025 at 12:57

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 10, 2025 at 12:00

Opposition groups in France are officially calling for the impeachment of President Emmanuel Macron. This comes after his prime minister was removed from office following a vote of no confidence.This is another BLS scandal, and Trump was absolutely right to fire the BLS commissioner?😔What this means:1). There was virtually no job creation in the last year of the Biden admin.2). The Fed should have started cutting in February.3) 2 million jobs from the last 3 years of the Biden admin have now been revised away. This despite the biggest debt issuance spree on record.

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 10, 2025 at 08:28

Dollar sellers hit pause, with the greenback holding just above recent lows as traders locked in profits before two big U.S. inflation reports. Momentum cooled off while markets waited for fresh drivers — PPI today and CPI on Thursday. If price growth runs hotter than expected, fears of stagflation could flare up again, making the Fed’s job trickier as it considers rate cuts to support the softening labor market. On the flip side, if tariffs don’t turn out to be as inflationary as people feared, bets on faster rate cuts would likely pick up quickly.Another storyline hanging o...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 09, 2025 at 15:55

The yen made a strong comeback today, topping the currency charts as traders jumped on rumors that the Bank of Japan might hike rates as early as October. A Bloomberg piece, citing unnamed sources, hinted that some officials want to move sooner, especially since concerns about economic growth have eased after the U.S.–Japan trade deal. The big question for policymakers is whether U.S. tariffs hit Japan’s economy harder than expected. If the impact stays manageable, the BoJ could argue it’s time to start normalizing rates again—even with the political drama in Tokyo.That...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 09, 2025 at 06:45

Dollar weakened broadly overnight and selling pressure persisted in Asia on Tuesday, with the greenback on the verge of breaking recent lows against Euro, Swiss Franc, and Aussie. The decline comes amid falling U.S. Treasury yields and growing conviction that the Fed will move toward faster easing.With no major U.S. releases scheduled today and the Fed in blackout mode ahead of next week’s FOMC, traders are still appearing impatient. Thursday’s CPI looms large, but speculative selling has already picked up, raising the risk that Dollar’s decline becomes self-reinforcing if te...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 08, 2025 at 06:13

The big market mover from the weekend was the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba, who stepped down under heavy pressure from his party after a historic election defeat. Ishiba, who came to power in October 2024, saw his coalition lose its majorities in both the lower and upper houses of parliament.On the data front, revised GDP showed the economy expanding at a stronger-than-expected 2.2% annualised pace in Q2 (0.5% q/q), up from the 1.0% preliminary estimate. The upgrade reflected firmer private consumption and marked a fifth consecutive quarter of growth.From China, August trade d...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 07, 2025 at 16:32

Market RecapU.S. Dollar plunged after a much weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report (22k vs. 78k expected), with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, a near 4-year high.10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.1%, reflecting aggressive repricing of Fed policy expectations.Gold surged to record highs on safe-haven demand and collapsing real yields. Fed ExpectationsSeptember FOMC: 25bps cut is fully priced, with speculation of a possible 50bps cut if CPI next week is soft.October FOMC: Odds of another 25bps cut jumped above 75%, signaling belief that the Fed needs to act aggressively.Markets ...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 06, 2025 at 09:31

Dollar tumbled sharply in early New York trading Friday after much weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report. 10-year Treasury yield plunging through the 4.1% level while Gold also surged to fresh record high.Traders moved swiftly to reprice Fed expectations, with a 25bps cut this month fully baked in and fresh speculation that policymakers may opt for a larger 50bps move. Looking ahead, odds of another 25bps cut in October spiked above 75%, underscoring market conviction that the central bank will need to move aggressively to shield the labor market.That places next week’s CPI repor...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 05, 2025 at 08:27

The foreign exchange market remains largely range-bound as traders await today’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Recent labor indicators, including ISM employment components, point to downside risk for NFP. Both manufacturing and services sub-indexes remain in contractionary territory, while ADP payrolls growth slowed sharply in August. This suggests a soft report is more likely than not.Besides, the implications for Dollar are asymmetric. A weak payrolls print—particularly a sizeable miss—could spark a sustained wave of Dollar selling as traders price in more aggressive Fed a...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 04, 2025 at 09:05

And of course Gbp is stronger fundamentally then Cad, so if you have 2 or more setups that are correlated you should choose best fundamental divergence ones... because we should be carefull with risking

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 04, 2025 at 09:03

Right now we dont have any setups on this strategy so we will wait until we got some... NFP is very important, to be honest we should wait until NFP give us insights... Maybe we will wait until next week who knows... We had GBPCAD setup yesterday but no confirmation from technical point so... no trade for me WE ALREADY WENT UP... SO WONT TAKE IT... I USE SIMPLE BREAKOUTS AND MOVING AVERAGE TOUCH AS CONFIRMATION BUT WE SIMPLY GOT BREAKOUT

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 04, 2025 at 08:48

I think it is enough to remember how this setup works. But..... You need confirmation on lower timeframe ( me using H1 ) no confirmation no trade because we should defend our capital from losses as much as possible.

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 04, 2025 at 08:47

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Sep 04, 2025 at 08:35

Markets adopted a cautious tone again today, as attention swung back to U.S. economic data. Today’s ADP private payrolls and ISM services figures are seen as key precursors to tomorrow’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls. The numbers are expected to sharpen the Fed’s rate-cut calculus, with traders reluctant to take large positions before the release.Fed officials have broadly indicated openness to a rate cut this month, reinforcing expectations of a 25-basis-point move. Fed fund futures now price the odds of such a cut above 97%, reflecting the market’s conviction th...

EURUSD	1.14044	GBPUSD	1.32339	AUDUSD	0.68864
USDJPY	162.79	USDCAD	1.42186	USDCHF	0.80944

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