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Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Aug 07, 2025 at 15:30

Sterling surged across the board after the BoE delivered a widely expected rate cut to 4.00%, but with a much tighter vote split than markets anticipated. Four of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted to keep rates unchanged, signaling persistent concerns about upside inflation risks. This hawkish undercurrent, paired with Governor Andrew Bailey’s cautious tone, undercut expectations for an accelerated easing cycle and helped Sterling lead currency gains on the day.The hawkish composition of the vote suggests that a follow-up cut in September can be basically ruled out. Odds f...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Aug 06, 2025 at 10:53

Macro Snapshot: U.S. Services PMI – Sluggish Growth Amid Tariff HeadwindsHeadline Services PMI fell to 50.1 (from 50.8) → marginal expansion, barely above contraction.Broad-based weakness: 7 of 10 components declined.Imports: 45.9 (↓ 5.8) – now in contractionNew Export Orders: 47.9 (↓ 3.2) – also in contractionBusiness Activity: 52.6 (↓ 1.6)New Orders: 50.3 (↓ 1.0)Employment: 46.4 (↓ 0.8)Prices surged to 69.9 (↑ 2.4) → highest since early 2023, showing strong cost pressures.Tariffs heavily cited in business feedback (mentioned 9 times) ...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Aug 03, 2025 at 15:41

I will be very carefull after this NFP ( it changed all my cards now ) i think USD is not so interesting now, indices need some confirmation to go long... OIL no more interested in ... I think GBP have potential to go lower... Maybe NZD can get nice support an EUR

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Aug 02, 2025 at 14:19

Markets Snap Summer Rally Amid Political, Economic CrosswindsNarrative Shift: From Optimism to UncertaintyEarly in the week, markets responded positively to:US trade agreements with EU and South Korea.Strong GDP growth surprise.Hopes for tariff stabilization.But momentum quickly faded, as:Tariff tensions with China reemerged.Labor data underwhelmed significantly.Political interference in institutions like the Fed and Labor Department raised red flags. Jobs Data Spark PanicJuly Payrolls: +73k (vs ~150k expected).Revisions: May & June cut by a combined 239k.Triggered a rapid reprice of F...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Aug 01, 2025 at 14:56

Overall i would like to use this as indices corrections to open longs, GbpUsd shorts + UsdCad longs could be great for next week, i think market is OKAY with tariffs, as expected so no big deal or risk off. Lets see how it goes. NZD still strong, GBP still weak fundamentally, AUD also have pressure from economic data. Maybe AUDNZD shorts and OIL longs but lets see... AUD shortsNZD longsUSD longs GBP shortsUS Indices longs OIL longs

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Aug 01, 2025 at 14:49

Dollar fell sharply Friday after a dismal July jobs report cast doubt on the resilience of the labor market. While the headline job growth missed expectations, the bigger blow came from a stunning downward revision to June’s figure. The data raised alarm bells that the U.S. labor market may be losing momentum far quicker than previously thought.Adding to the pressure was a coordinated release by Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, both of whom dissented at this week’s FOMC meeting in favor of a rate cut. Their remarks, published just before the payrolls release, emphasized the risks o...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Aug 01, 2025 at 07:54

We had really strong USD data this week. Dollar remains the clear outperformer this week, holding firm despite mild retreat in Asian session. Stronger-than-expected US Q2 GDP data have prompted a significant paring back of expectations for a September Fed rate cut. Adding to the hawkish tilt, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more guarded tone at the post-meeting press conference. Markets are now keenly focused Friday’s non-farm payrolls for further clues. On the trade front, US President Donald Trump declared a “Full and Complete” trade agreement with South Korea. The deal ca...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Jul 30, 2025 at 08:09

Aussie weakened broadly on Asian session after Australia’s Q2 CPI data cemented expectations for another RBA rate cut in August. However, the decline in Aussie lacks strong momentum so far. The softness in both headline and core inflation readings has effectively given the central bank the green light to proceed with its cautious easing cycle. But the absence of more significant economic weakness—especially in labor markets—means there’s little pressure to accelerate easing. Governor Michele Bullock’s recent dismissal of June’s uptick in unemployment support...

Fundamental Trading FX in Erfahrene Trader Jul 30, 2025 at 08:08

Lets make it clear... So you have an idea hwo thats works and how to spot divergence between currecies

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Jul 28, 2025 at 18:09

Key Drivers of Market Moves1. Disappointment Over US–EU DealThe agreement, initially expected to signal renewed transatlantic unity, is being viewed more as a political concession from the EU than a true partnership.Tariff hike to 15% on most EU goods significantly undermines European export competitiveness, particularly for industries like autos and machinery.Energy and investment commitments made by the EU further tilt the scales toward US advantage.2. Broad Euro WeaknessEUR weakness isn’t limited to the Dollar — EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY also turned lower, suggesting widespread ...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Jul 28, 2025 at 18:07

In any case, you should understand that we are Risk On, with unemployment data, GDP, and central bank meetings in focus this week. We may get a chance for good longs on the dollar (BUT THIS IS ONLY A GUESS, ALTHOUGH THE ECONOMIC DATA IS NOT BAD).

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Jul 28, 2025 at 18:04

This weekend, an agreement was signed between the US and Europe. This is a risk-on event, but we may see a situation where investors buy on rumors and sell on facts because the deal was expected. Despite the deal between the US and Europe, the euro fell because the terms caused a lot of discontent in Europe, and the USD was essentially the main victim of the tariff war. Now we see that the situation has stabilized. We see a strengthening of the dollar, which has further weakened the euro as a reserve currency. I would be cautious about opening long positions on the euro until this week's d...

Fundamental Trading FX in Erfahrene Trader Jul 25, 2025 at 08:40

Fundamental Trading FX in Erfahrene Trader Jul 25, 2025 at 08:37

I forgot something. Currencies, commodities, and indices have their own characteristics.USD/CHF/JPY - safe-haven currenciesEUR/GBP/CAD/AUD/NZD - risk currenciesThe euro can sometimes act as a safe-haven currency because the economic system and politics are fairly stable, and it is the second strongest currency after the dollar.Emerging market currencies are risk instrumentsCAD / NZD / AUD - commodity currencies, dependent on commodity prices. CAD - oil / NZD - dairy products and timber / AUD - gold, copper, iron.There are other commodities, but these are the main ones.Gold – a safe haven...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Jul 25, 2025 at 08:30

Now we have EUR and USD negotiations in focus overall... FED rate cuts... Choose best economic data divergences and open risk on trades will be my approach for now

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Jul 25, 2025 at 08:27

Key Themes:ECB Rate Cut Expectations Pushed BackEuro gained notably against Sterling and Swiss Franc, after ECB President Christine Lagarde downplayed near-term policy easing. Markets now lean toward an October rate cut, rather than September, supported by resilient July services PMI data and unchanged June forecasts.USD Recovery Amid Fed Stability SignsThe Dollar rebounded slightly as institutional risk faded—President Trump walked back threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, softening rhetoric during a symbolic Fed visit. Although frustrations remain over Powell’s rate stance...

Market Fundamental Context in Erfahrene Trader Jul 24, 2025 at 13:17

I decided to keep a short report on what the market thinks. This is the most difficult thing for beginners to understand: what is important at the moment and how to dance from this starting point.The main idea on the market right now is promotion within the framework of trade war deals between the US and other countries. Let me remind you that the US recently reached an agreement with Japan and some other Asian countries. Prior to that, the US reached an agreement with England, while the pause with China has been extended for a longer period. All in all, this leads to (risk on). Risk assets sh...

Fundamental Trading FX in Erfahrene Trader Jul 24, 2025 at 12:47

We can see that asset managers addig EUR longs / Adding GBP shorts / Retail traders 93% short and price move higher ANYWAYS IM ALREADY BE AND OUT WITH SOME PROFITS SO DO NOT COPY AHAHAH You saw just tiny part of pro approach... But even using this you increase probability of success dramaticly

Fundamental Trading FX in Erfahrene Trader Jul 24, 2025 at 12:41

Let's talk about supply and demand and how it looks on a chart: The supply and demand zone is not something definite, because supply and demand are constantly present in the market. I would like to offer you a very simple and effective way to identify the best price. Many may remember that very few traders are successful... We need strategy that will help us in identifying imbalances between price, supply, and demand. Figuratively speaking, we need to identify the place and time when the market is incorrect and capitalize on this. We need a discount, so we cannot buy high and sell low. Le...

Fundamental Trading FX in Erfahrene Trader Jul 24, 2025 at 12:21

Now let's talk about inflation. Inflation of 2-3% is considered normal, provided that the economy is growing; in fact, it is even a sign of a healthy economy. The central bank states in its announcements the target inflation rate it is aiming for. High inflation is a serious problem because people's wages cannot keep up with inflation for goods and services, which leads to social unrest. To keep inflation within reasonable limits, the central bank tightens monetary policy, thereby making money more expensive and slowing down economic growth. Deflation, or negative inflation, is counte...

EURUSD	1.14191	GBPUSD	1.33594	AUDUSD	0.69094
USDJPY	161.115	USDCAD	1.41867	USDCHF	0.80491

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