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UK ELECTIONS 2017

Maximilian (maxulr)
Jun 08 2017 at 06:42
posts 59




Hello all respected traders and visitors of this topic.

I think everyone wonder about the results of the upcoming UK elections, who wins and what would be the market reaction. I want to show you one method that was tested by me on several previous elections to predict the outcome. It is as simple as it may be. I analysed google trends statistics to check on the results tagged by Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. As you can see on the image, Theresa May has slightly more public interest, than Jeremy Corbyn.

So the question of the day is what does this mean for the market in general, and, particularly, for us?
To my mind this data shows us very well the balance of force in UK parliament wont change so all that play was just sucking money from Britain's pocket.
As a result, GBP, after a very high volatility, shooting down buy stops, should return to the pre-election mid April levels.

In case you opinion is different, please feel free to express it.

P.S.: All pm's would be answered after this weekend.

Archivos adjuntos:

MeuLugar
Jun 08 2017 at 10:34
posts 45
Thanks a lot for your contrition! I am agreeing with your opinion, same strategy I’m setting here for this election session! Let’s see what market offers us!
Baldo (BaldoN)
Jun 08 2017 at 13:48
posts 522
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.
DrVodka
Jun 09 2017 at 08:43
posts 297
ha ha ha google trends statistics - please , its got nothing to do with forex ...waist of time


your results r set for 5 years . change it to 7 days
Maximilian (maxulr)
Jun 09 2017 at 08:53
posts 59
BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.

'Cable' entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a [email protected] broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.
Baldo (BaldoN)
Jun 09 2017 at 11:22
posts 522
maxulr posted:
BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.

'Cable' entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a [email protected] broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.

Opening the positions prior event is more or less close to gambling. During the event may depend from market conditions, but still due to the high volatility and low liquidity the stops could be triggered quickly. After the event is much better, after the sharp market reaction :).
To be honest, I was missed last night UK election market party - being on another event :)
Capital Hedging (Forex_Villa)
Jun 11 2017 at 06:36
posts 29
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Don't panic over drawdown, instead manage it !!
mlawson71
Jun 11 2017 at 13:20
posts 1487
Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.

Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.
kieran (snapdragon1970)
Jun 11 2017 at 16:24
posts 1948
It will be a disaster if May forms any party with DUP in N.Ireland ,a through back to the dark ages, 300,000 have signed a petition against any such move in the first 12 hours.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
ANSHU KUMAR (ANSHU870)
Jun 12 2017 at 06:03
posts 1
what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??
AmDiab
Jun 27 2017 at 10:56
posts 718
ANSHU870 posted:
what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??

You already got your answer! Actually, these types of news events are too much critical! Only good skilled Forex traders are able to understand the actual movements of market! By the way, right now I am with EUR!
kieran (snapdragon1970)
Jun 27 2017 at 12:31
posts 1948
There was a bullish hint earlier this morning at London open.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
ZacThePac
Jun 29 2017 at 13:48
posts 11
mlawson71 posted:
Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.

Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.


Brexit negotiations are going to be a nightmare. The GBP could super volatile for 2 years as every politician wants to say something positive or negative about how they are going
Baldo (BaldoN)
Jun 29 2017 at 14:08
posts 522
As per my opinion, the end decision has been taken and already calculated in the price. The movement and volatility around different point of negotiation most likely will have similar to the 'news' effect over the sterling in crosses.
mlawson71
Jul 01 2017 at 11:56
posts 1487
ZacThePac posted:
mlawson71 posted:
Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.

Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.


Brexit negotiations are going to be a nightmare. The GBP could super volatile for 2 years as every politician wants to say something positive or negative about how they are going

Those are my thoughts exactly too. I don't know how am I going to trade the GBP, I might even avoid it altogether. It depends.
kieran (snapdragon1970)
Jul 01 2017 at 13:45
posts 1948
BaldoN posted:
As per my opinion, the end decision has been taken and already calculated in the price. The movement and volatility around different point of negotiation most likely will have similar to the 'news' effect over the sterling in crosses.

We've never had a brexit before though, prices can be calculated for other events because they've happened before, two other things effecting the UK, inflation and wage growth .
"They mistook leverage with genius".
MyNewBank
Jul 04 2017 at 10:07
posts 15
Both of those indicators are pointing towards a recession in my view. I have a very dark out look for the UK over the next few years
mlawson71
Jul 11 2017 at 09:36
posts 1487
MyNewBank posted:
Both of those indicators are pointing towards a recession in my view. I have a very dark out look for the UK over the next few years

I agree. I think the question is how long that will last before the UK begins to recuperate.
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