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UK ELECTIONS 2017
Jun 08, 2017 at 06:42
Vistas 867
17 Replies
Jun 08, 2017 at 06:42
Hello all respected traders and visitors of this topic.
I think everyone wonder about the results of the upcoming UK elections, who wins and what would be the market reaction. I want to show you one method that was tested by me on several previous elections to predict the outcome. It is as simple as it may be. I analysed google trends statistics to check on the results tagged by Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. As you can see on the image, Theresa May has slightly more public interest, than Jeremy Corbyn.
So the question of the day is what does this mean for the market in general, and, particularly, for us?
To my mind this data shows us very well the balance of force in UK parliament wont change so all that play was just sucking money from Britain's pocket.
As a result, GBP, after a very high volatility, shooting down buy stops, should return to the pre-election mid April levels.
In case you opinion is different, please feel free to express it.
P.S.: All pm's would be answered after this weekend.
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Zeiten Ändern Dich. email: ulrichmax@
Jun 09, 2017 at 08:53
BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on "cable" after the reaction coming out of the elections.
"Cable" entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a smart-@ss broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.
Zeiten Ändern Dich. email: ulrichmax@
Jun 09, 2017 at 11:22
maxulr posted:BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on "cable" after the reaction coming out of the elections.
"Cable" entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a smart-@ss broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.
Opening the positions prior event is more or less close to gambling. During the event may depend from market conditions, but still due to the high volatility and low liquidity the stops could be triggered quickly. After the event is much better, after the sharp market reaction :).
To be honest, I was missed last night UK election market party - being on another event :)
Miembro desde Feb 03, 2017
posts 30
Jun 11, 2017 at 06:36
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Don't panic over drawdown, instead manage it !!
Miembro desde Dec 11, 2015
posts 1462
Jun 11, 2017 at 13:20
Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.
Miembro desde Sep 12, 2015
posts 1933
Jun 11, 2017 at 16:24
It will be a disaster if May forms any party with DUP in N.Ireland ,a through back to the dark ages, 300,000 have signed a petition against any such move in the first 12 hours.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Jun 12, 2017 at 06:03
what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??
Jun 27, 2017 at 10:56
ANSHU870 posted:
what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??
You already got your answer! Actually, these types of news events are too much critical! Only good skilled Forex traders are able to understand the actual movements of market! By the way, right now I am with EUR!
Miembro desde Sep 12, 2015
posts 1933
Jun 27, 2017 at 12:31
There was a bullish hint earlier this morning at London open.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Jun 29, 2017 at 13:48
mlawson71 posted:Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.
Brexit negotiations are going to be a nightmare. The GBP could super volatile for 2 years as every politician wants to say something positive or negative about how they are going
Jun 29, 2017 at 14:08
As per my opinion, the end decision has been taken and already calculated in the price. The movement and volatility around different point of negotiation most likely will have similar to the "news" effect over the sterling in crosses.
Miembro desde Dec 11, 2015
posts 1462
Jul 01, 2017 at 11:56
ZacThePac posted:mlawson71 posted:Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.
Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.
Brexit negotiations are going to be a nightmare. The GBP could super volatile for 2 years as every politician wants to say something positive or negative about how they are going
Those are my thoughts exactly too. I don't know how am I going to trade the GBP, I might even avoid it altogether. It depends.
Miembro desde Sep 12, 2015
posts 1933
Jul 01, 2017 at 13:45
BaldoN posted:
As per my opinion, the end decision has been taken and already calculated in the price. The movement and volatility around different point of negotiation most likely will have similar to the "news" effect over the sterling in crosses.
We've never had a brexit before though, prices can be calculated for other events because they've happened before, two other things effecting the UK, inflation and wage growth .
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Miembro desde Dec 11, 2015
posts 1462
Jul 11, 2017 at 09:36
MyNewBank posted:
Both of those indicators are pointing towards a recession in my view. I have a very dark out look for the UK over the next few years
I agree. I think the question is how long that will last before the UK begins to recuperate.
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