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UK ELECTIONS 2017

maxulr (maxulr)
Jun 08 2017 at 06:42
59 príspevkov




Hello all respected traders and visitors of this topic.

I think everyone wonder about the results of the upcoming UK elections, who wins and what would be the market reaction. I want to show you one method that was tested by me on several previous elections to predict the outcome. It is as simple as it may be. I analysed google trends statistics to check on the results tagged by Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. As you can see on the image, Theresa May has slightly more public interest, than Jeremy Corbyn.

So the question of the day is what does this mean for the market in general, and, particularly, for us?
To my mind this data shows us very well the balance of force in UK parliament wont change so all that play was just sucking money from Britain's pocket.
As a result, GBP, after a very high volatility, shooting down buy stops, should return to the pre-election mid April levels.

In case you opinion is different, please feel free to express it.

P.S.: All pm's would be answered after this weekend.

Prílohy


Zeiten Ändern Dich. email: ulrichmax@
MeuLugar
Jun 08 2017 at 10:34
45 príspevkov
Thanks a lot for your contrition! I am agreeing with your opinion, same strategy I’m setting here for this election session! Let’s see what market offers us!

BaldoN (BaldoN)
Jun 08 2017 at 13:48
522 príspevkov
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.

DrVodka
Jun 09 2017 at 08:43
297 príspevkov
ha ha ha google trends statistics - please , its got nothing to do with forex ...waist of time


your results r set for 5 years . change it to 7 days

maxulr (maxulr)
Jun 09 2017 at 08:53
59 príspevkov
BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.


'Cable' entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a smart-@ss broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.

Zeiten Ändern Dich. email: ulrichmax@
BaldoN (BaldoN)
Jun 09 2017 at 11:22
522 príspevkov
maxulr posted:
BaldoN posted:
Very good approach to have some initial expectations. I personally would prefer to enter on 'cable' after the reaction coming out of the elections.


'Cable' entering is indeed lowers some pressure, but may be much more risky overall.
First of all, it might be intentional movement to kick out the majority originated from the market itself, or from a smart-@ss broker. Also, due to low liquidity, most brokers decrease leverage and widen spreads immensely. Taking all that into account I think, that opening positions not prior, but during such important events is very inconvenient and may have heavy consequences.


Opening the positions prior event is more or less close to gambling. During the event may depend from market conditions, but still due to the high volatility and low liquidity the stops could be triggered quickly. After the event is much better, after the sharp market reaction :).
To be honest, I was missed last night UK election market party - being on another event :)

Forex_Villa (Forex_Villa)
Jun 11 2017 at 06:36
29 príspevkov
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.

Don't panic over drawdown, instead manage it !!
mlawson71
Jun 11 2017 at 13:20
1487 príspevkov
Forex_Villa posted:
Kind of expected it will be a hung parliament but never knew the retracements were so weak and GBP is still under pressure.


Wait until they actually do start working on Brexit, the pressure will only increase, I think.

snapdragon1970 (snapdragon1970)
Jun 11 2017 at 16:24
1944 príspevkov
It will be a disaster if May forms any party with DUP in N.Ireland ,a through back to the dark ages, 300,000 have signed a petition against any such move in the first 12 hours.

"They mistook leverage with genius".
ANSHU870 (ANSHU870)
Jun 12 2017 at 06:03
1 príspevkov
what happen on monday opening. it is up or down ??

ANSHUKUMAR870@GMAIL.COM
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