mgolembesky's Posts

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Mar 15, 2016 at 07:21

Two weeks ago I wrote that the USD/CAD would likely see more downside in the weeks ahead. At the time of that writing the pair was trading at 1.3517 some 350 pips over the low that we saw last week at 1.3166. We are now approaching an area of key support that should be key in helping to give us clues as to where we are heading in this pair over the next several months. With the question at hand being was the January top in fact a major multi-year top in this pair or do will we yet see higher levels before we can consider this multi-year top in place. Looking at the daily chart notice a few dif...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Nov 12, 2015 at 08:26

USD/CAD Setting Up For Run to New Highs?The longer term trend on the USD/CAD has clearly been up since the 2011 low. We have however seen quite a bit of volatility in the pair since the September 28th high. In fact if we count the movement of 3 major swings from the September 28th high to the November 6th high we have seen over 1500 pips movement in this pair off of these three major swing points. The question that lies ahead is will we continue to see large bi-directional swings or are we ready to see a sustained move higher following our larger degree trend. To help answer this question I am...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 21, 2015 at 06:14

USD/CAD – 3rd Wave topped?For the past several weeks my base case on this pair had been that we were in a large Ending Diagonal looking and I was looking for one more high to complete this Diagonal before heading lower to complete wave ((iv)) of 5 of (C). The level that we needed to hold for this immediate upside count to remain valid was the 1.3136 level. On September 16th I posted an alternate count in our trading room that discussed the alternative count should this level break to the downside along with the support levels that I was looking for should that level break. Well on Septem...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 16, 2015 at 06:09

Well we certainly are not following though to the upside out of this triangle just yet which has increased the probabilities that we are following the alt yellow count of this triangle. This puts us back to where we started last week with our short term long trade that we initiated at the 1.3190 level. If you are not in the trade then you will have the opportunity to enter the trade with move down towards the 1.3200 level with stops under the 1.3154 level. Upside targets for this short term trade to the upside come in at the 1.3353 - 1.3550 zone.I am still getting an error message when I atte...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 14, 2015 at 08:58

@marketshark382 - Yes that is exactly what I am expecting as well. OMH and then move back down towards the 1.2861 area. That being said After we retrace off of the next high I do expect that we will see another run higher into the high 1.3s before we see significant top in this pair. The initial post in this thread is actually still valid and goes over some of the more intermediate expectations on this pair. @shamsol5713 - For the short trade still a bit too early to really determine high probability setup until we see what the structure looks like over the 1.3353 level. That being said if we ...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 14, 2015 at 08:58

USD/CAD - Since my last post here we did in fact see a move lower for what was potentially the bottom of wave (E) of this triangle and which produced a very strong move higher off of this low. (We actually caught this move in real time in our trading room for a quick short term trade higher). We have since seen this move up morph into a wave structure with a lot of overlap, too much overlap to consider it impulsive at this point in time. This leaves us with two possibilities the first of which is that this move up is part of an Ending Diagonal for wave ((c)) of v out of the triangle and the se...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 11, 2015 at 12:50

Overnight we dropped down off of what I am counting as the top of the wave (D) and we now have enough waves in place to call the triangle complete as shown by the yellow (E). With that being said we may still need OML to complete the triangle (shown in white) before we are done. Again I am not going to get too cute with this however and will consider any move over the 1.3353 level as having enough waves to call this larger ED complete.

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 10, 2015 at 06:29

This morning after the BOC rate decision announcement we saw a spike down that almost invalidated our triangle count. We did however hold just over the level that we needed to keep the count valid and have since then made a strong move back up into an afternoon high of 1.3250. As long as we hold over this morning's low then I am still tracking the triangle count as my primary count which suggests that we see higher levels into the 1.3295 level to complete the (D) wave of this triangle before retracing back lower one more time to finish off the wave (E) of the triangle. Now because we are i...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 09, 2015 at 05:56

This pattern is becoming more and more complex as this pair attempts push into the final high to complete the large Ending Diagonal. Last night we were just about 30 pips away from making a new high which would have given us enough waves to call this large ED off of the 1.2861 level complete. This morning we fell off of last nights high and stopped just over the lower channel support level of the ED in what is potentially the (C) wave of a larger wave ((B)) triangle of this final v of (v) of ((iii)) up. As long as we hold over the 1.3136 support level then I am still looking for this to resolv...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 08, 2015 at 06:19

This move off of the 1.3136 low is not looking impulsive to complete wave ((c)) of v which suggests that we may be in an Ending Diagonal within an Ending Diagonal to finish off wave ((c)) of v up. Again any move over the 1.3353 gives us enough waves to complete this larger Ending Diagonal pattern after which it is likely that we see a strong reversal lower. Bottom line this one is getting very close so keep a close eye on it...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 04, 2015 at 10:02

This mornings move down just barely held on for a deep retrace for a potential bottom of wave (C) of ((B)) down. The larger degree wave structure still needs one more high over the 1.3353 level to have enough waves in place to call the large Ending Diagonal complete. If we do not make a new high back over the 1.3353 level before breaking down then we cannot rule out a possible truncated wave v of the ED however should this occur it will make for a very unreliable pattern. For now we are watching to see if we can manage to squeeze out more more push higher to complete the pattern before toppin...

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 03, 2015 at 06:37

With this push up this morning we are very close to approaching the topping zone for this Ending Diagonal for wave v of (v) of ((iii)). I am looking for a full 5 wave move off of the 1.3199 level to indicate that we have complete wave ((C)) of v of (v) up. Targets for this final push up are in the 1.3360-1.3459 zone.

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 02, 2015 at 08:03

Today we held over the ideal support level for the wave iv of the potential ED. The move off of that low so far is looking corrective higher, which is what we would expect in an Ending Diagonal scenario as all of the waves in an ED are corrective in nature. From here Ideally we hold over today's low at 1.3117 and make another high over the 1.3353 level to complete this Ending Diagonal up. Again after this ED completes we would then expect a strong move in to the downside towards the 1.2861 level.

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Sep 01, 2015 at 06:17

Looks like we have topped in wave iii and are now in wave iv down. Ideal support for wave ((C)) of iv comes in at the 1.3168 level. From there would like to see one more push higher to finish off wave v of (v) of ((iii)) into the 1.3414 area to complete this Ending Diagonal. Assuming that this does fill out as expected then after the ED completes we would expect a fairly sharp retrace for wave ((iv)) down towards the 1.2861 level as this is where the Ending Diagonal began (An Ending Diagonal will typically retrace it's entire move rather quickly once complete).

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD in Experienced Traders Aug 28, 2015 at 12:45

USD/CAD - 3rd Wave Extending?I’ve been torn how to count this pair since we made a new high this week. Until this new high was made I was counting the August 4th high as the top of wave ((iii)) and was looking for either a wave ((iv)) that either consolidated through time or price that was well proportioned with the wave ((ii)) that bottomed on June 18th. While we did a fairly good job calling the action from the August 4th high into the August 12th low the move up off of that low has been quite difficult to track and has thus had us sidelined from a trading perspective since that time....

All Quotes
AUDUSD	0.65523	USDCHF	0.91071
EURJPY	168.116	EURCHF	0.97874
EURGBP	0.85795	GBPJPY	195.951
EURUSD	1.07473	GBPUSD	1.25272
USDJPY	156.423	USDCAD	1.3641

EURUSD	1.07473	GBPUSD	1.25272
USDJPY	156.423	USDCAD	1.3641

Posts by mgolembesky