Recently EU is rising up a lot due to USD weakness. My guess is it will reverse and go below 1.15 I dont trade it though, I have robots for trading and I guess just for fun. Your opinion?
The EUR/USD rose to 13-1/2 month high of 1.1538 in Asia, pushing the 14-day RSI close to overbought territory. There hasn’t been a meaningful correction in the pair since Macron rally of mid-April. Thus, many would be compelled to think the rally is overdone.
However, the options activity suggests the rally is real and due for further extension. The preliminary data published by the CME for July 17th shows, an addition of 906 contracts to total open interest (OI) of in-the-money (ITM) call options.
1.15 call options witnessed an addition of 936 contracts, while 1.1450 calls added 16 contracts. Marginal drop was registered in other deep in-the-money calls. Meanwhile, the open interest in ITM Puts fell by 13, while the OTM Puts, particularly the 1.14 Put witnessed an addition of 262 contracts in the OI.
The big build up in the near-the-money call (1.15 Strike) adds credence to the Asian session rally in the EUR/USD pair. Moderate additions in the OTM Put (1.14) could be risk averse investors buying insurance against long spot positions, given the technical indicators are nearing overbought levels.
Think it requires the ECB to deliver a more hawkish stance the 20th. With rate hikes pretty much priced out of the dollar, and a huge Trump discount already applied, given the failure to deliver on healthcare repeal, further dollar fall until then is not likely.
The pick up in the demand for the greenback is forcing EUR/USD to grind lower to the area of 1.1530, or daily lows.
EUR/USD cautious ahead of ECB
After clinching fresh cycle tops around 1.1580 on Tuesday, the pair is now drifting lower to the 1.1530 area amidst some moderate rebound in the greenback and some cautious trade ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow.
Tracked by the US Dollar Index, the buck seems to have found some support around 94.30, levels last seen in September 2016, after the sharp pullback following another failed attempt of the revised ‘Trumpcare’ bill to pass among Republicans.
It should be all about the ECB in the next hours of trading, as market expectations of some announcement regarding the ongoing QE programme have been bolstering the pair’s rally in past weeks, particularly after the ECB Forum in Portugal late in June.
Nothing scheduled data wise in Euroland today, whereas building permits, housing starts and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories are all expected across the pond.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is losing 0.18% at 1.1533 facing the immediate support at 1.1453 (10-day sma) followed by 1.1375 (21-day sma) and finally 1.1369 (low Jul.13). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1583 (high Jul.18) would target 1.1616 (2016 high May 3) en route to 1.1713 (monthly high Aug.24).
In addition, the daily RSI (14) is slightly below the overbought area today (currently at 67), while the MACD stays unchanged in the bullish territory. Spot is expected to keep the constructive tone while above the near-term support line, today at 1.1312.
Dears; First pls check my attached charts then i believe that 1) Daily chart since the 28 of June has entered inside ( minor range ) for the strong up trend between points 1.1337 & 1.1465 2) On Monday 17 July the daily candle closed over the upper point point 1.1465 & Yesterday Candle have a good breach and hold 3) Today will be pull back Two ways to enter the next by First: To wait till pull back return to point 1.1465 then after price action candle reversal activate buy and target 1.16 Second: if the pull back counties wait till point 1.1337 and enter aggressive buy entry first TP @ 1.465 & 2nd TP 1.16 Wait and you will see !
assereab posted: Dears; First pls check my attached charts then i believe that 1) Daily chart since the 28 of June has entered inside ( minor range ) for the strong up trend between points 1.1337 & 1.1465 2) On Monday 17 July the daily candle closed over the upper point point 1.1465 & Yesterday Candle have a good breach and hold 3) Today will be pull back Two ways to enter the next by First: To wait till pull back return to point 1.1465 then after price action candle reversal activate buy and target 1.16 Second: if the pull back counties wait till point 1.1337 and enter aggressive buy entry first TP @ 1.465 & 2nd TP 1.16 Wait and you will see !
can you talk like human? will it go up or down 1.16 or 1.15 was the question the answer is it have gone dawn to 1.15
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