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Hello everyone

AlHashim
Feb 21 2019 at 10:46
10 príspevkov
togr posted:
walpants posted:
hello and welcome, im new to, im doing a lot of reading on here, there is some very good advice on here.


I would not say you get proper education here on MFB


The forums are very good for tips and specific questions but there is better educational material in other places

walpants
Feb 21 2019 at 13:02
45 príspevkov
AlHashim posted:
togr posted:
walpants posted:
hello and welcome, im new to, im doing a lot of reading on here, there is some very good advice on here.


I would not say you get proper education here on MFB


The forums are very good for tips and specific questions but there is better educational material in other places


of coarse, i am finding material from all over to add to my education.

BipinBike
Feb 24 2019 at 07:24
10 príspevkov
have you tried babypips? they have a lot of great info for total beginner

Arcferreira (Arcferreira)
Feb 24 2019 at 13:19
50 príspevkov
After 4 years studying Forex I learned something called Positive Expectancy.
For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:
Winning% - 1/38
Losing % - 37/38
Reward - 36
Loss - 1

Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x Loss
PE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1
PE = 36/38 - 37/38
PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%

In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...
But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value.

But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long run.
Let's say your strategy has a winning ratio of 40%, a reward of 2, and you trade 20 positions a month, risking 0.5% per trade...

20 × 40% = 8 winning trades = 8 x 2 x 0.5% = 8% reward
20 x 60% = 12 losing trades = 12 x 1 x 0.5% = 6% loss
Monthly profit = 2%.

A 2% strategy means 27% a year... not bad, because 70% of retail traders fails! Why?
They don't have a strategy, they don't have money management. They only trust in luck.

If you want to win in market, you need:
1) a strategy where you know your risk (loss)
2) a strategy where you know your reward (profit)
3) a strategy where you know your winning ratio.

These 3 questions are not answered by 99% of Expert Advisors. Because Martingale/Grid/Averaging strategies (very common in these EAs) doesn't have a known risk. If a trade goes wrong, these EAs increase the risk in a new trade, to cover the previous loss and make some profit.

3 months of backtesting in a strategy that answer these 3 questions is enough. 1/3 months in foward test in a demo account is enough. Start small in real account, and be happy!




Trade safely... Remember, a high Drawdown means a high risk!
Treeny
Feb 24 2019 at 13:50
135 príspevkov
BipinBike posted:
have you tried babypips? they have a lot of great info for total beginner


I agree

AharonGorion
Feb 25 2019 at 13:49
7 príspevkov
Arcferreira posted:
After 4 years studying Forex I learned something called Positive Expectancy.
For example, in roulete game, your positive expectancy is:
Winning% - 1/38
Losing % - 37/38
Reward - 36
Loss - 1

Positive Expectancy = Winning% x Reward - Losing% x Loss
PE = 1/38 × 36 - 37/38 ×1
PE = 36/38 - 37/38
PE = -1/38 = - 2.63%

In short, no matter what you do, the house (Casino) has an edge. You only have luck to win the house...
But Casino has an insurance against lucky players: a max bet value.

But in Financial Markets, you need to do like Casino: a positive expectancy strategy with small bets in the long run.
Let's say your strategy has a winning ratio of 40%, a reward of 2, and you trade 20 positions a month, risking 0.5% per trade...

20 × 40% = 8 winning trades = 8 x 2 x 0.5% = 8% reward
20 x 60% = 12 losing trades = 12 x 1 x 0.5% = 6% loss
Monthly profit = 2%.

A 2% strategy means 27% a year... not bad, because 70% of retail traders fails! Why?
They don't have a strategy, they don't have money management. They only trust in luck.

If you want to win in market, you need:
1) a strategy where you know your risk (loss)
2) a strategy where you know your reward (profit)
3) a strategy where you know your winning ratio.

These 3 questions are not answered by 99% of Expert Advisors. Because Martingale/Grid/Averaging strategies (very common in these EAs) doesn't have a known risk. If a trade goes wrong, these EAs increase the risk in a new trade, to cover the previous loss and make some profit.

3 months of backtesting in a strategy that answer these 3 questions is enough. 1/3 months in foward test in a demo account is enough. Start small in real account, and be happy!






You make a very interesting point but the hard part for me has been finding a strategy that yields just 2%. Most strategy I try end up losing a lot not matter what I do

ScottyCarsonMVP
Mar 05 2019 at 07:25
54 príspevkov
I agree, Babypips is really helpful!

tracydavison
Mar 10 2019 at 06:47
34 príspevkov
hi and welcome! I have to say I love babypips, very good resource

walpants
Mar 12 2019 at 09:30
45 príspevkov
babypips and youtube have some great stuff.

CRPA9
Mar 15 2019 at 08:11
21 príspevkov
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