The Martingale strategy i good?

ForexAssistant posted:
Question;

Since the topic is martingale and martingale like recovery systems, why do you guys that have a problem with these types of systems continue to hang around just saying the same thing over and over again, martingale bad, martingale bad... We understand your position. You have no reasoning for your proclamations? You obviously do not use martingale type strategies so you wouldn't know a good recovery system from a bad one. Why would anyone want to follow the advice of someone who admits he doesn't use the systems at all and therefore only has a precursory understanding of them. Those that use them, know what we are doing and are quite content with what we have. My modified martingale has been running 8 months, is currently in recovery mode ( I needed to check out my programing for when it was in recovery) and is up 22% right now. Those percentages can go up or down temporarily but will continue to climb as you can see from the MyFxBook analysis over the long term.

We would like to discuss how to make what we have, which isn't bad, even better. What we would like to hear from those who don't like recovery systems, is what it is that they don't like about them so we can fix what ever the problem is.

Salvatore, if what you are saying is that you think that any program that loses more than it wins and is some how still profitable, has to be some kind of a scam, you are almost ready to understand recovery systems, because that is precisely what they do. They make losing profitable.

The way in which we could get better results is to find a better way to decide when to buy and when to sell. If we could improve on the direction, the recovery system would never even be an issue. If we won every trade, we would never even use the martingale recovery.

A recovery system is part of the money management strategies that should go with every trading system. The real problem is that most new traders don't really understand the importance of money management and just don't use any. A martingale type recovery system is a good money management strategy if you know how to use them, but like anything else, if you don't know how they work, don't use them.

My 2 cents for the night, good evening all,

Bob

This is not really a response for Bob, but for all the rest of you who are reading this and don't quite know what to make of this argument. You're reading Bob's comments and everyone else's, and you're maybe a bit confused. You're hopeful that a martingale might help you make money, or recover money you've lost, and that's something we all want. Although it doesn't appear that Bob is open to opinions contrary to his own, maybe others here are.

I'm not going to resort to ad hominem attacks to make my point, but simply make an appeal to your sense of reason. To generalize, the very concept of a 'recovery system' is flawed. I'm not going to say it's ALWAYS bad, but it's 'by default' bad.

If you have a good and trustworthy trading style, you don't need a recovery system. Your system includes looking at your winning and losing trades, your patterns, your mindset, etc., and making informed changes to your style as necessary.

If your trading style is fundamentally non-viable, a 'recovery system' isn't going to help. Why amplify a failing trading style? If your recovery system is going to make you money, run it all the time! Why only use it when you've lost money?

I am going to repeat my point from an earlier comment: the market does not know, or care, whether or not you've made or lost money. It should be completely immaterial to your trading decisions. Trade based on where you think the market is going, not whether or not you're in a drawdown.

I'm here still making posts because I want to help people make good decisions. I believe that martingales have no place in a stable and profitable trading system. I've outlined my reasons for this several times, and this is why I would not use them. Bob seems to think that only people who use martingales would not 'know a good recovery system from a bad one'. Perhaps the reason some of us don't use martingales is because we DO know!

In fairness to full disclosure, I do run some systems on my AutoTrade account that employ types of martingales. Specifically, StanOK and Stable Growth Strategy seem to do this. I run these systems DESPITE the martingale approach, not BECAUSE of it. I like the Wallstreet approaches much better, where gains are not hiding large losses lurking in the open drawdown.

Pefect example on using grid, martingale or whatever. The safes thing in the world that blows accounts. Currently -1,777.80 pips far away from reality.

Everything he posts i frame it and put it on my office, he makes my day.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/rise-lucror/422518

https://www.myfxbook.com/files/ahuruglica/New_Bitmap_Image.bmp

beren posted:
It doesn't appear that Bob is open to opinions contrary to his own, maybe others here are.

Take you time, read the whole blog from the beginning. All of it. Everyone who writes about risks of martingales and grids, he writes a long comment playing a smart ass. It's OK to be smart but he has to show something. I forgot IRS is tracking him.

I agree with everything else you wrote.

ahuruglica posted:

beren posted:
ALTHOUGH it doesn't appear that Bob is open to opinions contrary to his own, maybe others here are.

Take you time, read the whole blog from the beginning. All of it. Everyone who writes about risks of martingales and grids, he writes a long comment playing a smart ass. It's OK to be smart but he has to show something. I forgot IRS is tracking him.

I agree with everything else you wrote.

I think we're saying the same thing. I originally forgot an 'Although' at the beginning of that sentence, so maybe my meaning wasn't clear. I've edited it in.

@beren 😄

Beren, I am so disappointed, you so miss judged me.

I don't want to be a superstar trader, I want to be retired. To do that I needed to create a computer program that I could trust. I simply do not trust investment companies. I saw that all the programs (EAs) created for the forex market was some adaptation of a human system. I can look at a graph and can decide the near future direction of the price most of the time. I can't teach a computer how to do it though, no intuition to work with. I decided to create a trading system for computers that uses the computers strengths instead of trying to overcome its weaknesses. Systemic trading is mathematically based because that is the computers strength.

I wrote that if a trading system won all the time that we would never use any recovery system. I have also written that I would not use a martingale in its original form. But just like xerox has lent its name to the photo copy, so the martingale has been used to mean any type of recovery system. Beren, we are not talking about the original martingale concepts but things like you are using. I am not well versed on StanOK and Stable Growth Strategy but I saw that 85% of traders lose more than they win and figured that even a 50/50 guess would have done better than the existing human systems. This is when I turned to recovery systems.

These 85% losers are traders now, not investors like me. Others my age are not interested in learning how to be a professional trader just to be able to retire and with a 15% success rate, who can blame them. I did learn, but only as a stepping stone to my purpose, to create a new automated retirement program. I am close, very close. And through my research when we created this new system of trading we also had some ideas about systemic methods for traders. The idea was to blend the best of the computer with the strengths of the human trader in a cyborg system. We're not where we want to be yet.

I only asked people that did not like recovery systems to explain why so we can factor in that concern. Sound bytes don't do anyone any good. However, your response was both thoughtful and intelligent. I do appreciate that.

However, I think I may now have a bearing on why two intelligent people can come to such a difference of opinions. I need systems that will work with computers and that is my frame of reference. Traders frame of reference is systems that were built for humans where intuition can play an important role. For these traders a recovery system isn't just not needed but may also be an insult to their abilities to trade right in the first place.

I think I have learned what I needed to know, in spite of the difficulties of discussing new ideas with new would be traders. There is still more about emotions that I still need to learn about but I now feel that this forum has become too hostile for learning much of anything. Therefore, I will let the sound bytes have the last word.

Bob

I knew he will disagree with you too @beren

the problem and that he wants at all costs to impose his strategy also think we have to accept the criterion

ok I'm sorry

A quick video of a Martingale system with so called Adaptive Range. Since there is an infinite amount of ways of setting up one of these recovery systems.

In this type of system risk and money management play a big role.

https://screencast.com/t/jMEvidcyO5f7

sasa74 posted:
the problem and that he wants at all costs to impose his strategy also think we have to accept the criterion

I believe that is called scamming people.

ForexAssistant posted:

I think I have learned what I needed to know, in spite of the difficulties of discussing new ideas with new would be traders. There is still more about emotions that I still need to learn about but I now feel that this forum has become too hostile for learning much of anything. Therefore, I will let the sound bytes have the last word.

Based on facts, the only 'would be trader' is you. Everyone else is a trader of some sort and has a positive approach on trading. No one else here is trying to teach the others or trying to sell their 'research stuff'. Only you.

Martingale strategy is not yours, it is at leas 400 years old. Don't feel bad when someone disagree or shows the risks involved. If you have a good strategy and a perfect 'recovery strategy' keep it for yourself, no one else doesn't want it.

Please stay away. Let us mortals discuss about martingale while you make millions with your precious martingale/grid system.

I know well personally I do not even answer the most trusted not worth it

I apologize for strength and are of the opinion that trading with ease and much more profitable

I thank you for the nice words for unfortunately the forums are freguentati from the genes of the forex systems invent bogus want to sell indicators miraculous and yet you know the big players in the market the so-called sharks know how to come to market? simply supports and resistances underlying trend and that the only way to ensure that you bring to your target market revenue

@sasa74

Well some people have no trading capabilities, all they can do is try to sell so called trading products or copy/paste worthless books. Unfortunately a man like Bob can't be man enough to move away.

In his version of reality he is the smartest guy and the best trader, but has only words, nothing more.

As I said earlier: real traders don't need advice from demo guys. (and the only demo guy is Bob)

anyone who enters the market with real money accepts recommendations of a ke is trading in demo version and come with a system that you would use them only in casinos but it seems that this system does not work let alone in trading

The most important things professional traders teach:

1. Trend is your friend.
2. Cut losses short and let profits run.
3. Never add to a loosing position.
4. Always have an exit strategy (stop loss)

Martingale does exactly the opposite of that. It might recover your account once, it might recover twice, but one thing for sure, someday it will blow your account.

well congratulations I see you're getting a view of like-minded professionals veramnte large and you forgot to add that never opens 2 positions on the same level of buy and sell at the same momente