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Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 16, 2016 at 11:26

The expectation of today’s meeting of the Fed dominated the Asian session. In fact, there has been a decrease in the volume and volatility, and most investors adopted a defensive stance, which explains the decrease of some stock exchanges such as the Japanese and Hong Kong.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 15, 2016 at 17:42

Investors began to position themselves for the meeting of the Fed, which starts today and ends tomorrow.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 14, 2016 at 12:31

US markets closed with fairly sharp gains, thus achieving the 4th positive consecutive week. The reasons for the positive trend are several. The main reason for this last rally will be due to the perception that the risks of the US economy into recession are minimal. After an early uncertain year marked not only by the turbulence of the financial markets and the slowdown of the economy, economic indicators for February showed a very dynamic activity. The latest and most striking evidence was the employment report, released on 4 March that signaled a very dynamic labor market, with the economy ...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 11, 2016 at 12:05

In the pre-opening, European shares showed some gains. The reason for this initial rise is justified by a technical reaction to yesterday's falls and rising oil in the Asian session. The last session was particularly volatile, with the major indexes reaching gains between 2% and 3% before finishing with a devaluation of 1% to 2%, and it is worthy of a brief analysis. The reasons for yesterdays' behavior in the European equity indexes are essentially two. The first relates to the fact that the ECB did not have introduced a system of different interest rates to liquidity that banks hold ...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 10, 2016 at 12:37

US markets closed with modest gains, which were mainly due to the rise in the oil sector, resulting from the sharp increase in crude price. The Department of Energy revealed that US oil reserves rose by 3.88 million barrels, a variation above 3.17 million estimated. After this increase, the American oil reserves reached the highest level since the decade of 30. However, for the 3rd consecutive week, gasoline stocks suffered a bending, this time of 4.52 million barrels (estimated – 1.49 million). To this information were added the statements of the Iraqi Minister of Petroleum who said OPE...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 09, 2016 at 21:55

Investors are positioning themselves for the realization of the ECB meeting tomorrow. This position will be seen in the stock market as well as in the currency and bond markets.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 08, 2016 at 16:14

The most recent economic data in the US exclude the scenario of a recession in the country, so there is no risk of an abrupt descent. On the other hand, despite a flexure in the first months of the year, the European economy continues to grow, sustained by domestic demand, and fuel consumption shall not decrease.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 07, 2016 at 14:28

American indices closed higher, as investors reacted positively to the employment report, which described a very dynamic labor market but that implies an increased risk of a rise in interest rates. The employment report allayed, at least temporarily, investors’ fears in relation to a US recession scenario. In February, the US economy generated 242,000 jobs, which add up over 30,000 resulting from the upward revision of the readings from December and January. The unemployment rate stood at 4.90%, recording no change facing January. Economists had anticipated the creation of 195,000 jobs a...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 04, 2016 at 15:22

At this stage, the money markets allocate a modest probability (63%) to a rise in interest rates in 2016, which has given some encouragement to equity indices. In conclusion, the ideal for the equity markets would be that the indicators describe an American economy far from precipitating a recession but not so dynamic to raise a sharp rise in interest rates.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 03, 2016 at 11:27

In recent weeks, the position of hedge funds has been changing. Until mid-February, these funds mainly held selling positions on oil, but in the last two weeks not only the pace of closure of these positions increased as some hedge funds began to get long on crude oil, which reinforced its upward movement.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 02, 2016 at 12:40

Main European indices such as the DAX and the CAC, broke their resistance zones, even before the S & P. With this move strengthened the probability of these indices to test new resistance (9900 in the DAX and the CAC in 4423/4466) in the coming days. One should notice that due to high volatility the occurrence of erratic movements in an underlying trend should occur frequently.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Mar 01, 2016 at 16:41

Stimulus boosted stock markets, emerging currencies and metals.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Feb 29, 2016 at 15:11

At the macroeconomic level, household consumption increased to 0.50% in January, exceeding the forecast of 0.30%, supported by rising wages which boost household spending. The increase in house prices also contributed to an improvement in consumer confidence. The approach of the preferred measure of inflation from the Fed to 2% raised some concern in many investors but the money markets, which are an excellent barometer of the reference rates, assign a probability of 57% to a rise in interest rates in 2016. The US GDP for the 4th quarter was revised upwards from 0.70% to 1%, against economists...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Feb 26, 2016 at 20:15

An excellent trading week.The forum is a great help.Which you all a nice weekend.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Feb 25, 2016 at 12:43

US markets ended with contained variations, managing to recover from early losses justified by the sharp fall in oil and the weakness of the US markets. The Dow Jones was losing 266 points and closed with a rise of 53 points. Oil price suffered a selling pressure, with investors showing their disappointment at the fact that Saudi Arabia eliminate the possibility of a cut in production and some skepticism regarding the freeze on production capacity to balance the relationship demand / supply . The session key moment occurred when the Department of Energy revealed that the oil reserves in the US...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Feb 24, 2016 at 10:52

So far, about 58% of the DJ Stoxx 600 components have reported their quarterly accounts. Although a slight majority have managed to surpass analysts’ forecasts in terms of profits, with respect to revenues only a minority has been able to exceed forecasts.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Feb 23, 2016 at 16:18

Because of fears about the US economy, the S & P should lead the movement of other indexes. Yesterday, the index closed in the early resistance zone (1940-1950). While this index does not overcome this resistance is unlikely that the DAX overcome conclusively the 9560 level. Therefore, it is most likely to occur some profit taking for today and tomorrow the S & P may try a new test to the resistance zone.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Feb 22, 2016 at 12:40

The main fear of global investors is that the US economy may come back into recession as a result of the slowdown of the global economy. Thus, besides following the signals given by economic indicators, investors will also monitor the S & P’s behavior, which will again dictate the evolution of other indexes.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Feb 19, 2016 at 10:50

Despite reduced yields, the propensity of institutional investors to purchase bonds increased. Fears of a recession does not extend to Europe, which should continue to grow. If the stock market indices continue to be valued, the mentioned investors will have to follow their benchmarks and will have to allocate liquidity to the purchase of shares.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Feb 18, 2016 at 11:52

In recent days there has been a stabilization of the factors that had worried investors in recent weeks: the Chinese authorities have shown they don’t want the yuan to depreciate sharply, the Chinese stock markets stabilized and the oil price has recovered. This improvement has also contributed to diminishing fears in relation to bank stocks.

EURUSD	1.1319	GBPUSD	1.32956	AUDUSD	0.64628
USDJPY	143.775	USDCAD	1.38199	USDCHF	0.82283

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