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Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 05, 2015 at 12:12

American indices closed lower, due to the oil drop, the words of Janet Yellen and dynamism shown by some economic data. The price of crude has been hit by rising reserves in the US, in line with the estimated and also the strength of the dollar. The testimony of Janet Yellen on the finance committee of the House of Representatives focused mainly on the US financial system. The Fed’s President said that should be made improvements to the risk management and also in what concerns the compliance in the largest banks and regional institutions, which will induce the central bank to adopt rule...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 04, 2015 at 12:25

In China, investors reacted with enthusiasm to the PMI index, which have reached 52.0 in October, the maximum of the last 3 months. Furthermore, the positive sentiment was reinforced by the words of President Xi Jiping. The President of China stated that the annual growth of the country will not be lower to 6.50% over the next five years. Additionally, it was revealed that the President of the Central Bank of China wants to establish a closer relationship between Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges, which will enable greater access to investors resident in the latter square the Chinese stock mark...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 03, 2015 at 16:10

The technology sector may benefit from the Nasdaq that have approached the maximum of the last 15 years.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 02, 2015 at 15:38

With today’s speech the Governor of the San Francisco Fed (John Williams) at a conference organized by this institution starts an intense week of speeches among the Central Bank members. Among the various interventions, the focus is on Janet Yellen on Wednesday. Statements by members of the Fed will help investors define their expectations for the next meeting of the Central Bank in December.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 30, 2015 at 10:16

The statement from the Fed lead investors to focus again on major economic issues. The US economy suffered a sharp slowdown in Q3 to grow only 1.50%, significantly less than the 3.90% observed in the previous quarter. Estimates of economists pointed to an increase of 1.60%. However, this variation is less serious than it appears. The economic slowdown was mainly due to the sharp fall in inventories (almost 50%). This effect is equivalent to about 1.44% of the economy. This is likely to be temporary in that, depleted inventories will need to be replenish in the coming months, thus making a posi...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 29, 2015 at 12:46

In short, yesterday's Fed statement challenges the prevailing perception in the financial markets (and especially monetary) that there will be no increase in interest rates before the year end, which had been one of the catalysts rally in stock market indices in October.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 28, 2015 at 11:24

The meeting of the Fed will be the main event of the day and perhaps of the week. Economists do not anticipate any increase in the reference rate. Attention will be focused on meeting announcement and publication of the minutes a few weeks later. In relation to the Fed executive committee, opinions are considerably divided. Regional Governors, 8 out of 12 are in favor of an increase in interest rates in December. From the other members, Janet Yellen also advocates an increase in December as well as its Vice-President, although it has shown some reservations. Two governors advocate the maintena...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 27, 2015 at 12:47

According to a statistical study conducted by Asbury Research, the last week of October is usually, since 1957, the worst stock market week of the 4th quarter and one of the worst of the year.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 26, 2015 at 10:48

The almost vertical rise in European equity markets after the ECB’s intention to extend the quantitative easing program and the decision by China’s central bank to cut interest rates put the European indices at extreme levels of overbought. The performance of these two central banks is not a surprise being expected by investors and by economists, so it is not to exclude a short-term correction but that does not invalidate the positive medium-term trend.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 23, 2015 at 13:57

Mario Draghi is a skilled manager of expectations and an excellent communicator with the financial markets, even to have a greater effect than the disclosure of corporate results and economic data.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 22, 2015 at 10:49

a decrease in volume shall occur due to the expectation surrounding the ECB meeting today, which is taking place in Valetta (Malta) and is expected to be the main event of the day. Investors will try to find in the words of Mario Draghi the confirmation that the ECB will be available to adopt new measures of monetary stimulus.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 21, 2015 at 12:38

The Earnings Season remains the central theme. This Season has been marked by the high percentage of companies providing higher than estimated profits (about 74%) in opposition to a worrying proportion (60%) of companies reporting lower revenue than estimated. While profits depend on various factors (sales, costs, supplies, accounting rules, etc.), revenues depend primarily on demand for goods and services that businesses provide. Such demand depends on the degree of activity of the economies in which they operate. As such, the weakness of the American multinational sales are an alarming sign ...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 20, 2015 at 09:44

During this week, some members of the Central Bank will intervene in financial events and will be interesting to see if they will repeat the rhetoric of Fed (an increase of interest rates in December) or will wave to the weakness of some economic data.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 19, 2015 at 11:39

US markets extended their recent rally, managing to finish on high for the 3rd consecutive week. Despite the oil drop and the results that have been presented have not been very exciting in terms of revenues, most of the S & P sectors closed higher. One reason for the Friday climb was the need for many fund managers follow the rise of the benchmarks. Another reason was the fact that the S & P have overcome a major area of resistance of 2020, which triggered purchases of many quantitative models of trading. Despite these reasons, the earnings season continues to be the main topi...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 16, 2015 at 09:42

The automotive sector should capture the attention of investors, after some data on this industry have shown that the strong demand observed in Germany contributed to the sales increase in September, so it was registered the 25th consecutive month of growth in the European Union.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 15, 2015 at 15:04

The earnings season of the US banking sector continues today with the presentation of quarterly accounts at Bank of America and Wells Fargo. In the last quarter, Bank of America managed to surpass analysts’ forecasts due to lower legal expenses to the extent that the institution was ending their lawsuits. Now, it is important that the Bank of America manages results through an increase in its activity. With regard to Wells Fargo, its core business is the provision of housing loans, making it less dependent on the evolution of capital markets.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 14, 2015 at 18:24

Any rally towards the end of the year would come from China’s government doing more to stimulate the economy

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 13, 2015 at 11:54

Many investors begin to anticipate that the ECB will announce a new phase of the debt purchase program. Based on a study of Standard & Poor's, some investors estimate that the quantitative easing program will reach 2400 000 M € and extends until the end of 2018.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 12, 2015 at 10:54

The beginning of the European session shall be dominated by factors specific to certain firms. Glencore announced that it will divest two mines, one in Chile and another in Australia, a decision which falls within the target of a 10 000 M. USD debt reduction. In the sector of foodstuffs, the Belgian-Brazilian takeover of Anheuser-Busch InBev on English SAB Miller remains the main theme. Reuters reports that the brewer AB Inbev can raise its offer for SABMiller. RWE and E.On have been the worst performers in the DAX this year (-52% and -36%) due to the uncertainty regarding the closing costs of...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 09, 2015 at 11:29

The medium-term outlook for the equity markets have become more encouraging in the short term but there is a possibility of a correction after the strong gains achieved in recent days.

EURUSD	1.13391	GBPUSD	1.33062	AUDUSD	0.64817
USDJPY	143.755	USDCAD	1.38111	USDCHF	0.82182

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