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Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Jan 09, 2015 at 16:57

Stock markets retract today after the opening of the US market. After the strong valuations achieved in the last two sessions (for example the DAX appreciated by 4.90% since the minimum of Tuesday) it is expected that some investors realize capital gains. On the horizon still hover various uncertainties, which justifies the prudent stance of investors. In addition to the political and economic situation in Greece, the weakness of the Russian economy is still a latent threat. In an interview with the Financial Times, the renowned investor George Soros considered that Russia is a much higher ris...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Jan 08, 2015 at 17:55

Stock markets advanced negociating with sharp gains. The good performance of Asian and American markets as well as the rise of oil in the Asian session mitigated the negative feelings that have dominated among European investors.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Jan 07, 2015 at 19:08

In Europe, equity markets traded with some gains. The publication of the Eurozone inflation, measured by the consumer price index, will be one of the last relevant data that the ECB will consider before the day of the meeting, 22 Jan. For the first time in more than five years, the euro area inflation fell 0,2%. The result was slightly lower than the estimated decrease of 0,1%. The deflation spectrum has been pointed out by Mario Draghi, on multiple occasions, as the main threat to the economy of the Eurozone. The continuing fall in oil prices is affecting the companies related to this sector....

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Jan 07, 2015 at 00:05

S&P 500 closed with sharp devaluations, for the fifth consecutive day. The strong rises that Americans indexes reached in the second half of December led to a certain complacency among investors before the threats that had been forming on the horizon. Yesterday, these threats have become evident. The continuous fall of oil price and the heavy losses suffered by European markets led to strong selling pressure on Wall Street. The fact that the American indexes have reached successive maximums during the second half of December also made them vulnerable to the occurrence of corrections.Th...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Jan 07, 2015 at 00:02

European stock markets traded without a clear trend and nervousness dominated investor sentiment. Yesterday, European shares suffered heavy losses, explained by the confluence of several factors: the fall of the oil, the depreciation of the Euro and the situation in Greece. Sometimes financial markets tend to underestimate the importance of a factor, but when its ramifications become evident give you an exaggerated importance. Most likely, the previous day fits this definition. Technically, the area of 9500 is an important support for the DAX, to be the most representative index of the Europea...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Jan 05, 2015 at 16:26

Equity markets start the year falling.The new year is already showing many challenges and uncertainties. In the European case, the biggest challenge and risk is represented by the political situation in Greece. This issue is aggregate two fronts. The first is internal and marked by the election campaign. The second is broader and is represented by the response of several European countries to the events of the election campaign in Greece. The weekend brought some developments on both fronts. In the election campaign, the party leader of anti-European left Syriza, Alexis Tsipras said that if he...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Jan 02, 2015 at 13:38

American indices closed lower on the last day of the year, breaking the upward trend started in mid-December and that allowed the S&P to appreciate 8% in 6 sessions. Falling US stocks may be explained by a number of factors. The first is that many fund managers, who were able to follow the positive performance of the US stock market during 2014, realized capital gains, thereby creating selling pressure. This trend was particularly visible in the utilities sector, which was the best performer of the year with a rise of 24,28%. The second is that other investors materialized, for tax pur...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 31, 2014 at 13:04

Take a break, enjoy the winter holidays and spend some quality time with families and friends.Happy trading and a Happy 2015! :-)

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 31, 2014 at 13:01

The beginning of 2015 should be marked by political uncertainty in Greece, the economic and financial situation in Russia and the continuous oil price weakness.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 29, 2014 at 23:35

Today the stock markets traded with minor variations.The week will be shorter than usual, due to the closure of markets worldwide on 1 January 2015. Many investors are taking advantage by using vacation time and equity trading volumes are more subdued than usual.The attention was mainly focused on Greece. The Government once again fails to elect the President of the Republic, which brought some panic among investors, since this failure results in the holding of early elections. The Athens stock exchange fell as more than 12%, but closed with a lower fall to 3.5%.The main US stock markets close...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 29, 2014 at 00:52

Better risk management and opportunity management: It helps to look at the tails of your P/L distribution. Please Size positions appropriately, utilize reasonable stops, ensure that multiple positions are sufficiently uncorrelated, etc. Cutting opportunity short can significantly weigh upon overall returns. Plotting your P/L for each trade and looking at the shape of the distribution will tell you a great deal about your management of risk and opportunity.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 24, 2014 at 15:37

Take a break, enjoy the winter holidays and spend some quality time with families and friends.Wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy 2015!

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 23, 2014 at 12:12

Tomorrow starts the period that corresponds to the so-called “Santa Claus Rally”. This period includes the last five sessions of the year and the first two of the new year. Over the past 28 years, the S & P had a positive performance 25 times with an average gain of 1.74%. However, as the S & P already appreciated 6% in the last four sessions, it is likely that the Santa Claus Rally this year has already been at least partially anticipated. There is a pattern that has repeated in the last 30 years, during the month of December. This pattern consists of a rise in maj...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 22, 2014 at 15:39

Stock markets are trading high, giving extension to the recent rise. At the present time there is a favorable environment generated by the FED’s statement, which is now enhanced by the reduction of threats posed by a number of factors. In Asian markets, crude oil traded higher, as Saudi Arabia argued that in 2015 the oil prices will recover due to a more dynamic world economy. The recovery of oil spread to other raw materials, thus it’s expected a recover in oil and mining sectors, at least in the short term. In the currency market, the ruble also recovered against the dollar.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 19, 2014 at 14:04

The European indexes opened up, a day after they have presented a significant increase in their valuation. Yesterday’s behavior was due to the statement of the US Federal Reserve made the day before. European markets continue to be positively influenced by American indexes but the situation in Greece and Russia as well as the evolution of oil will continue to haunt investor sentiment.Today is expiration date for futures contracts and options on European indexes. Generally, the expiration days of futures and options are more volatile and likely to be performing erratic movements. The most...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 18, 2014 at 21:24

The rise in the stock markets was supported by Yellen’s statement (and the consequent reaction of US markets) and also the appreciation of the ruble against the dollar.The FED introduced the concept of “patience” in its statement by stating “that could be patient regarding the beginning of the standardization process of its monetary policy.” However, the big surprise was that the Central Bank has derived the expression “for a considerable period of time” when referring to keeping interest rates at historically low levels. Additionally, when questioned ...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 17, 2014 at 17:44

The meeting of the FED constitute a further step in the preparation of the financial markets to the normalization of monetary policy in the US process. Key elements of this meeting are the economic projections of the Central Bank for 2015 and the semantics of the statements that result from the meeting. From the statement, investors will try to assess what will be the timing of the first rise in interest rates as well as what will be the pace of their increases.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 16, 2014 at 16:35

Once Charles Darwin wrote something like this:“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive, but those who can best manage change”The same is true for traders: Traders that can adapt faster to the market changes are the ones that get consistent and positive results.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 15, 2014 at 15:35

The Minister of the United Arab Emirates for Petroleum, said OPEC will not change its output even if the price of crude decline to 40 USD / barrel.The FED’s meeting on Wednesday shall only gain some relevance shortly before its completion.After the resilience demonstrated earlier in the week, last Friday the US markets have accused some nervousness before the intensification of threats to equity markets. Many investors reduced their exposure to the market or bought puts (put options) to protect their portfolios. In face of this nervousness, Wall Street recorded the worst weekly performan...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Dec 13, 2014 at 04:10

Trading was marked by the reaction of European investors to economic data in China whose industrial production was below expectation. Investors are giving attention to the evolution of oil prices and the political situation in Greece.Oil price remains under pressure hitting new lows.The main point of Thursday's session was the loss of much of the recovery achieved during the first hours of trading. Apparently, the mentality of buying the dips would prevail and investors were taking advantage of the fall of the previous day to buy shares in the expectation of a final rally of the year, howe...

EURUSD	1.13246	GBPUSD	1.33007	AUDUSD	0.64164
USDJPY	145.228	USDCAD	1.38164	USDCHF	0.82833

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