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Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 13, 2014 at 16:06

European markets opened slightly higher, recovering some of yesterday’s losses. The day was initially marked by the publication of data relating to some European countries. Today, before the opening, the change in inflation in Germany was published. In October stood at -0.30% compared to September. In France, inflation remained unchanged. By 9:00 am, the ECB reported its monthly newsletter.Data on the Chinese economy, which were not famous, will condition the feeling of European investors.The issue of Ukraine and the economic and financial situation in Russia are two interlocking themes ...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 12, 2014 at 12:24

European markets trade with losses. One of the main news of the day is the penalty imposed against several banks by supervisors in England and the USA. In England, the supervisor has stipulated Citibank, HSBC, JPMorgan, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS to pay a fine of 1100 M.GBP due to irregularities in the forex market. For its part, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that these banks will have to pay a fine of 1,400 M.USD by irregularities of the same nature. Although the conviction was expected, the fines are much higher than in comparable occasions.The International Energy...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 11, 2014 at 14:03

European markets trade without major fluctuations. The earning season continues today with the publication of the quarterly accounts of several Italian banks. The oil drop suggests to many investors a sign of the global economic slowdown, however, it is noted that the downward movement of crude oil is also explained by an oversupply. The fall in the Oil price is a threat that goes beyond the rational perception, to the extent that the situation in many oil producing countries begins to deteriorate. Among these producers, the biggest threat comes from Russia. Germany is the country with the lar...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 10, 2014 at 11:10

After the vertical climb in recent weeks, the European markets, entered a phase of heightened sensitivity to adverse events or news. Some negative factors may bring some weakness in the coming days:- The apathy in the provision of credit may evidence that the European economy can not engage in a credible and sustainable recovery, even with the multiple aid of ECB. To these fears add up the steep losses on value suffered by Greek banks on Friday.- Increase of Geo-Political tensions in Ukraine. On Friday it was reported that heavy fighting occurred in the east of the country and that a Russian a...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 07, 2014 at 16:06

Yesterday’s statements from the ECB President did not provide anything new but were sufficient to dispel some fears that had been accumulating in the previous days. Mario Draghi reiterated the commitment of the Central Bank to take more extraordinary measures if the situation in the Eurozone worsen.This morning, before the opening, was published the monthly change in industrial production in Germany, which grew in September 1:40% compared to forecasts of 2%. This variation does not offset the decline 3.10% in August.In terms of results, Allianz reported higher than estimated earnings and...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 06, 2014 at 10:21

The ECB meeting will be the main event of the day. Although there is hope that the ECB suggest the introduction of new monetary stimulus measures, this scenario is unlikely to materialize in this meeting. A scenario that is not excluded is a reduction in the estimates for economic growth and inflation for 2015.The British economy has been one of the most dynamic (in 2014 should grow by 3%), helped by low interest rates and the devaluation of the pound. However, in some areas of the economy such as the housing market, there have been some inflationary outbreaks.US markets closed higher, reflect...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 05, 2014 at 16:30

European markets trade with gains, reflecting the positive reaction to the US mid-term elections. However, there is a risk of this effect is not lasting. At this stage, the behavior of oil prices and the ECB meeting tomorrow assume greater importance.In the US, the ADP report, which measures job creation in the private sector, caused some volatility but its impact on the course of the session should be limited to the extent that this indicator is not a very reliable barometer of NFP employment report that will be published on Friday. The first indications of the midterm elections point to a co...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 04, 2014 at 19:13

The stock market traded under selling pressure and the fall in oil prices, which hit a new low today, weighs not only on its sector, but also on the general market.The earning season continues in Europe, and companies have reported this morning corresponding to the positive pattern observed so far. The European Commission, under the chairmanship of Jean-Claude Juncker, has lowered its economic projections, given the slowdown in the Eurozone.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Nov 03, 2014 at 12:59

European markets trade with no major fluctuations, the first hour of trading was influenced by the worrying PMI reading in China and the pressure on the oil in the international markets.The publication of the final PMI readings relative to the major European economies and the Eurozone as a whole, did not alter the initial market behavior that is taking a small break from the strong rebound.As mentioned in the previous post, the US markets exchanges at 52 Week Highs and were recently driven by the decision of the Bank of Japan. In addition to this decision, another important measure was the ann...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 31, 2014 at 10:40

The European markets started the session with sharp gains. The catalyst for the initial rise is the unexpected decision by the Bank of Japan, which increased its annual program of debt acquisition from 590 000 M USD to 726 000 M USD.While the Fed’s monetary policy has been the main driver of equity markets, the Bank of Japan also starred in an important role in creating liquidity. At a time when the Fed and the Bank of England are starting to reverse the course of their monetary policy, the decision of the Bank of Japan is an important step to counter the decrease in liquidity generated ...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 30, 2014 at 13:45

At the beginning of today’s session in Europe markets started the session slightly higher to reverse within the first hour of trading. Investors react to the announcement of the Fed’s meeting yesterday and to the results published this morning.The US markets closed yesterday without major fluctuations. The Fed meeting was the main event of the day and caught little enthusiasm that had come to cheer investors in previous days.The Federal Reserve’s decided to end its asset-purchase program, which had begun in September 2012 and which was one of the drivers of the equity markets...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 29, 2014 at 12:23

European markets experienced a significant recovery yesterday. The recovery of the European Indexes was related with the perception that European companies have achieved good results.US markets were driven by good business results on both sides of the Atlantic. Despite all the fears about the global economy, US companies are daring to record better earnings season this year. In fact, from the 208 companies in the SP500 that have reported their accounts 72% beat forecasts. Economic data, including a breakdown of durable goods orders, the lowest growth in house prices and the rise in consumer co...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 28, 2014 at 17:33

Yesterday, Crude Oil listed in New York, reached the minimum of the last two years (Prices fell below 80 USD a barrel). The supply / demand ratio has been destabilized by increased production in the US and the decline in demand for crude because of the slowdown in many economies. For the oil sector, the fall of oil prices to below 80 USD affect the profitability but also the sustainability. According to some analysts, shale oil production price lies for some oil companies between 70 USD and 80 USD a barrel, so if crude continues down these companies will start to make losses. The additional pr...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 27, 2014 at 21:33

Yesterday, the results of the stress tests, prepared by EBA (European regulator of the banking sector) in cooperation with the ECB and the AQR program were disclosed.The AQR (Asset Quality Review), the responsibility of the ECB consists of a review of asset quality and ability to absorb losses. 123 European banks were submitted to stress tests and 130 European banks to the AQR program. The stress tests are a series of simulations of how certain scenarios would have an impact on the level of European capital position, the risk sensitivity and exposure to sovereign debt banks.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 24, 2014 at 15:33

Banking shares traded volatile as investors position themselves before the publication of the results of stress tests of the ECB. These results have been preceded by many rumors but some Italian and Greek banks may not pass.The news of a new case of Ebola in the USA increases the negative psychological impact, which may penalize the airlines.American markets remain high and the main drivers were the good results of some relevant companies.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 23, 2014 at 16:30

Market European session today was essentially marked by the reaction of investors to the publication of the PMI indices (Purchasing Managers Index) concerning the Eurozone. The reading on the manufacturing industry was a positive surprise.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 23, 2014 at 16:26

The presentation of good results by relevant companies and better macro data, helped to feed the confidence of investors.

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 21, 2014 at 18:04

Stocks are rising, prolonging the recovery from last week.The climb is technical and relates to the behavior of the American market. The recovery of American stocks force many fund managers to increase their market exposure in order to monitor the recovery of their benchmarks (benchmark).Recent statements by senior Fed induced investors to have a more optimistic outlook regarding the Central Bank meeting next week. The interventions of some members of the Central Bank envision a more conciliatory stance of monetary policy and as such favorable for equity markets.American companies continue to ...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 20, 2014 at 16:59

The recovery of European markets started to rise strongly from Friday, it’s potential momentum is hard to anticipate, should be volatile and susceptible to shocks. In this initial phase, the most cyclical stocks will be distinguished, including the oil companies which have suffered very significant losses due to the sharp drop in the price of crude.The earnings season will gain a greater intensity in Europe this week. The results of European companies are an important issue but at this stage, it will be the behavior of American markets, the main catalyst of the indices of the Old Contine...

Trading Journal v Noví obchodníci Oct 18, 2014 at 15:08

Rumors emerge that inflation remains controlled and is not excluded that the Fed resume the acquisition of debt instruments. These rumors not only fend off fears of an early increase in interest rates as they open the possibility of the FED to inject more liquidity into the economy.

EURUSD	1.12916	GBPUSD	1.32817	AUDUSD	0.63837
USDJPY	145.384	USDCAD	1.38395	USDCHF	0.82902

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