Markets Calm as Shutdown Nears End | 11th November 2025

Relief for Global Markets

Global markets opened the week on a steadier note as optimism grew around a potential resolution to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. Investors welcomed signs of bipartisan progress, helping risk sentiment recover after days of political gridlock and uncertainty. The U.S. Dollar firmed modestly, while precious metals like Gold and Silver extended gains as traders continued to price in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid lingering economic headwinds.

Energy markets also stabilized, with oil prices holding near recent highs as demand forecasts improved. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars saw mild pressure, while USD/CAD rebounded on renewed greenback strength. Overall, the improving outlook for U.S. fiscal negotiations injected a cautiously positive tone across global markets.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold climbed to a two-week high, trading just above $4,000, as softer U.S. data and easing Treasury yields boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut early next year. The metal’s gains were tempered slightly by optimism over a potential U.S. government shutdown deal, which limited demand for defensive assets.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical frictions continue to provide mild underlying support for gold.

US Economic Data: Weak factory and services figures reinforced expectations for slower growth, aiding gold prices.

FOMC Outcome: Markets remain confident the Fed will pivot toward easing in the coming months.

Trade Policy: Optimism over U.S. fiscal resolution has reduced safe-asset demand temporarily.

Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed expectations keep gold’s longer-term bias upward.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish momentum persists above the $4,000 mark.

Resistance: $4,050 and $4,080 are key upside barriers.

Support: Initial support lies at $3,970, followed by $3,940.

Forecast: Gold may consolidate above $4,000, targeting a break toward $4,060 if dovish sentiment deepens.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Traders remain cautiously optimistic, favoring gold as a medium-term hedge.

Catalysts: Progress in U.S. fiscal talks and upcoming inflation data will dictate the next move.

Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver extended its climb, trading near $51.00, benefiting from continued demand for alternative assets and easing bond yields. The rally remains underpinned by Fed cut expectations, though optimism over the U.S. shutdown resolution has slightly capped upside momentum.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Broader global uncertainty supports silver’s industrial-hedge appeal.

US Economic Data: Softer U.S. economic figures reinforced silver’s upward bias.

FOMC Outcome: Rate cut bets continue to attract buyers to non-yielding assets.

Trade Policy: Improved fiscal outlook tempers defensive buying.

Monetary Policy: Anticipated monetary easing supports a sustained bid in silver.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Gradually bullish above the $49.50 zone.

Resistance: $51.50 and $52.00 mark key topside levels.

Support: $50.00 and $49.20 serve as key supports.

Forecast: Silver may test $51.50 as long as the Fed maintains a dovish tone.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Positive, with moderate profit-taking expected near current highs.

Catalysts: Fed commentary and U.S. CPI data later this week may drive renewed volatility.

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar remains subdued near 0.6550, pressured by a stronger greenback as optimism over the end of the U.S. shutdown lifted sentiment toward the USD. Weaker Chinese trade data further dampened AUD’s performance amid ongoing concerns over regional demand.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Stabilizing U.S.-China relations offer limited tailwinds.

US Economic Data: Stronger U.S. labor and sentiment data favor the dollar.

FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious stance limits AUD upside.

Trade Policy: China’s trade softness continues to weigh on commodity-linked currencies.

Monetary Policy: The RBA remains neutral, keeping AUD directionally dependent on global cues.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Slightly bearish below 0.6600.

Resistance: 0.6580 and 0.6620.

Support: 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Forecast: AUD/USD may remain rangebound between 0.6500–0.6600 pending fresh U.S. data.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish amid soft regional fundamentals.

Catalysts: China’s upcoming CPI and U.S. macro indicators could trigger volatility.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD softened below 0.5650, extending mild losses as optimism over a U.S. government deal lifted the greenback. Weak domestic demand and subdued Chinese data added to the Kiwi’s underperformance.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Reduced global risk aversion dampens NZD appeal.

US Economic Data: Stronger U.S. indicators boost USD buying interest.

FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s caution keeps USD supported against high-beta currencies.

Trade Policy: China’s weaker imports weigh on NZD outlook.

Monetary Policy: RBNZ remains neutral, limiting near-term policy divergence.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Downward bias below 0.5700.

Resistance: 0.5680 and 0.5720.

Support: 0.5620 and 0.5580.

Forecast: NZD/USD likely to consolidate lower, with risks skewed to further downside.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bearish as traders favor USD strength over commodity FX.

Catalysts: U.S. CPI data and New Zealand’s upcoming retail figures.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD rebounded toward 1.4050, driven by renewed U.S. Dollar demand as shutdown optimism lifted yields. Oil prices steadied near $60.00, limiting CAD’s downside but keeping the pair biased upward overall.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global fiscal optimism supports risk appetite but strengthens USD.

US Economic Data: Solid U.S. payroll and services readings bolster the greenback.

FOMC Outcome: Markets discount further near-term cuts, supporting USD strength.

Trade Policy: Energy trade sentiment remains mixed after OPEC’s recent announcements.

Monetary Policy: BoC maintains its cautious stance amid inflation concerns.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish bias above 1.4000.

Resistance: 1.4080 and 1.4120.

Support: 1.4000 and 1.3950.

Forecast: USD/CAD may retest 1.4100 if U.S. yields continue to edge higher.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish, with the USD in control short-term.

Catalysts: U.S. U.S. shutdown progress and Canada’s employment data later in the week.

Wrap-up

Market participants will continue to monitor progress in U.S. shutdown talks, with attention also shifting to upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data for further policy cues. A formal resolution could lift overall risk sentiment and pressure safe-haven assets, while any renewed delay might reignite volatility. For now, traders appear content to stay balanced—positioning ahead of key U.S. data releases that could define the Fed’s rate outlook into year-end.

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