US Dollar Slides Ahead of Key US Data Releases | 3rd December 2025

Dollar Slides Ahead Data

The US Dollar slipped ahead of key economic data releases, with traders positioning cautiously as markets await fresh signals on inflation, labor strength, and the Fed’s policy path. Risk sentiment was mixed across majors as commodity currencies reacted to shifting macro expectations and China-linked momentum.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index slipped toward 99.20 as traders positioned cautiously ahead of major US data releases. The move reflects softer momentum in the dollar as the market waits for clarity on inflation and labor trends.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited influence for now, with attention shifting toward macro signals.

US Economic Data: Upcoming NFP, ISM, and PCE readings are the primary catalysts driving the latest USD pullback.

FOMC Outcome: Markets continue to price in December rate cuts, weighing on the dollar.

Trade Policy: No fresh trade headlines, but lingering global uncertainties remain mildly USD-supportive.

Monetary Policy: A more dovish Fed outlook contrasts with steadier policy tones abroad, contributing to DXY softness.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Short-term trend is turning bearish below 100.00.

Resistance: 100.00 / 100.40

Support: 99.20 / 98.80

Forecast: Bias remains lower unless US data surprises to the upside.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Tilted bearish as rate-cut expectations increase.

Catalysts: US PCE, ISM, and jobs data will determine whether DXY sees a deeper pullback.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD held firm despite weak Q3 GDP, supported by the RBA’s hawkish stance and steady demand for the Aussie near a multi-week high. Markets are reassessing the likelihood of further RBA tightening.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Low impact, with domestic data and China indicators taking priority.

US Economic Data: Softer USD supports AUD resilience ahead of US releases.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed expectations provide additional tailwind for AUD.

Trade Policy: Stable trade environment helps commodity currencies maintain traction.

Monetary Policy: RBA hawkish tilt offsets GDP weakness and underpins the AUD. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish bias with higher lows forming.

Resistance: 0.6750 / 0.6780

Support: 0.6670 / 0.6630

Forecast: Upside likely if RBA tone stays firm and USD remains pressured.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Positive as traders view GDP weakness as temporary.

Catalysts: Australia CPI, China PMI, and RBA commentary.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

China’s Services PMI eased to 52.1, slightly below expectations, suggesting slower momentum in the services sector. The reading keeps Chinese growth concerns in focus.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Mild geopolitical tension continues to influence China-linked sentiment.

US Economic Data: Stronger USD data could amplify pressure on CNY.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed limits USD/CNY upside but doesn’t fully offset China’s soft data.

Trade Policy: No major shifts, but global demand uncertainty weighs on outlook.

Monetary Policy: PBOC remains supportive, but not aggressive enough to spark strong recovery. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral with a slight upward tilt.

Resistance: 7.16 / 7.18

Support: 7.12 / 7.10

Forecast: Sideways to modestly higher unless China data improves. 

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautious due to mixed China growth signals.

Catalysts: China inflation, liquidity measures, and PBOC daily fixing.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD strengthened toward 0.5750 as upbeat China PMI figures and Fed rate-cut expectations improved risk appetite. The kiwi benefitted from correlation to China’s economic signals.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Stable risk environment supports NZD flows.

US Economic Data: Softer USD ahead of major data releases boosts NZD.

FOMC Outcome: Markets expect the Fed to cut sooner, lifting the kiwi.

Trade Policy: Positive China trade sentiment aids NZD demand.

Monetary Policy: RBNZ hawkish tone remains a major supportive factor. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Turning bullish with improving momentum.

Resistance: 0.5780 / 0.5820

Support: 0.5700 / 0.5660

Forecast: Potential for a breakout higher if risk sentiment stays firm.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Improving, supported by China data.

Catalysts: US data, dairy auctions, China macro readings.

AUD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/JPY remained below 102.50 after weak Australian GDP reduced growth sentiment, while the pair continues to track broader Asian risk flows.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Regional tensions remain mildly supportive of JPY safety flows.

US Economic Data: Little direct impact, though USD softness indirectly influences cross-flows.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed helps risk sentiment but not enough to lift AUD/JPY.

Trade Policy: Japan-Australia trade signals remain stable with limited impact.

Monetary Policy: RBA hawkish tone offsets GDP drag; BoJ’s cautious tightening stance keeps JPY vulnerable. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish below 102.50.

Resistance:102.80 / 103.20

Support: 101.80 / 101.40

Forecast: Further downside possible unless Australian data stabilizes.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Mixed, leaning bearish for AUD/JPY.

Catalysts: Australia CPI, BoJ commentary, Asian equity performance.

Wrap-up

Overall, market direction now hinges on the upcoming US data slate, which is likely to set the tone for both USD performance and broader risk sentiment. Traders should stay alert to volatility as rate-cut expectations and cross-asset flows continue to shift.

Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!