How to improve the odds in trading

Donex posted:

johncarrus posted:

I'm not here to argue either and I truly Value everyones thoughts and opinions. Can you guys post your favorites accounts on myfxbook so i can take a look at them?


Those are great points.. as this (Theory) is just an experiment at this point. I do hear that swing trading is the way to go for big money. My main goal here is to be right 80% of the time.. which so far I am with 50 trades on my belt. I don't think that's luck because I screen my trades very closely. But again.. This is just a test :)

Also.. can you guys post your personal trading accounts? I would love to see how you guys are doing.. Thanks!

Hey JC

I don't think anyone in this thread is arguing or being belligerent, but rather as yourself just giving opinions.

I'm sure like everyone else, I wish you well and hope you achieve your quest. Unfortunately in FOREX, forward testing is governed by time. Would be nice to forward test a system for 1 year in 1 week, but the reality is that to forward test a system for 1 year, it actually takes 1 year and of course it also needs a fair sample size of volume.

Your results are great for a month, but it's just a month. Your trading strategy goes against all the mathematical probabilities so that is why I feel in the long run it will fail. But hey, I hope I'm wrong. I know you said you're filtering out the bad trades and taking only the good ones, but unless you have a reliable crystal ball then that will also eventually fail you. (Again, I hope I'm wrong)

There are plenty of people selling winning systems in roulette. Most of them work but only short term. In the long run, the mathematical edge cuts in and they will lose all their winnings and capital.

In my experience, you can't fight the maths, the maths will always win and conquer. Better to get the maths on your side rather than against you.

Again, I wish you well and I hope you prove me and the others wrong. I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong and congratulate you for doing the seemingly impossible. Good luck with it, and that's a genuine good luck.

You can view members systems by going to their profile, and if they have any public systems you'll be able to see them.

I agree with everything you said :) The thing is... . I don't see many people winning in this market with those rules. I've experienced the huge drawdowns with BIG money and i personally want to minimize risk in any and every way. Thanks for the tip!! :)

Donex.. your trading looks great btw! Did you create an EA?

johncarrus posted:
Donex.. your trading looks great btw! Did you create an EA?

Hey JC

Thx, but it's still early days, 6 months is not a large sample, nevertheless it is a sample. If it can maintain those stats for a year, 2 years, 3 etc, well I won't complain. But it's a big 'If'. All I can do is just let the EA do it's thing and see what it's like in another 6 months.

My backtesting showed long periods of stagnation, 2-3 months of stagnation is common, the worst was in 2008 which had 6 months. Live trading is also giving me these long periods of stagnation but it's just part of my system.

I've tried everything possible to increase the win rate which decreases the stagnation. I can increase the win rate, but then it affects the avg win/avg loss. What you take in one hand you have to give in another. You just can't have everything. Just need to find a tolerable reasonable medium.

Yes, I wrote the EA myself. I know java programming, so didn't take too long to work out MQL4.

Very good! I like how you vary the risks. Since your an EA programmer.. have you seen any EA's on this website that are worth purchasing?

No I haven't. But you seem like a smart fella. You really think anyone would sell an EA or a manual system that performs really well? Wouldn't they more likely setup a MAM/PAMM account.

I subscribe to certain youtube 'FOREX experts'. I'm a little disturbed, I love to hate em. I don't know, I seem to get a kick from listening to them. They are almost all con men selling systems or robots.

Lately, one particular fella is selling an EA for $2500. His done a whole heap of funky videos showing how good this EA is. I mean I wanted to buy it (just kidding, but these guys are good) He claims this EA last year made 810% with a max DD of 10%. He claims people that already have the EA are making 9% a week.

Now, if anyone believes that, then they deserve to lose the $2500. Sure, I feel sorry for the simple vulnerable type, but those with half a brain and still purchase this EA, well no sympathy for them. In the comments section of the vids, you have no idea how many people were queuing up to buy this EA. It's sad.

Yah everyone is clinging to hope and lose their rationality. I've been a sucker myself and have learned my lessons. I blame my young age for my ignorance lol.

You made a very good point about (You really think anyone would sell an EA or a manual system that performs really well? Wouldn't they more likely setup a MAM/PAMM account.)

It's sad to see people lying constantly and selling crappy systems. I used to be in the business sector and had to leave it because i saw way too many scumbags pushing crappy products just to make a buck.

johncarrus posted:
Yah everyone is clinging to hope and lose their rationality. I've been a sucker myself and have learned my lessons. I blame my young age for my ignorance lol.

It's sad to see people lying constantly and selling crappy systems. I used to be in the business sector and had to leave it because i saw way too many scumbags pushing crappy products just to make a buck.

Hey you're not alone being a sucker. I've been sucked in plenty of times, but not anymore. I will never ever be sucked in by these shysters again, but I've had to pay (with dollars) for that wisdom and experience by being sucked in. Tough and hard way to learn, but I don't know of any other way. I now know their tactics and methods.

I wish I didn't have a conscience, I would be doing exactly what they are doing (I think I could even do it better) and make a fortune.

I did sign up for an online course when I first began in 2010. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to name it here, but the site pops up on the first page if I google 'learn to trade forex'. He teaches how to trade price action with nothing more than candle patterns with support and resistance. I have to admit that it is not a complete waste of time/money. If you really didn't know a thing about trading forex, and needed a primer it would have been a decent place to start.

He had some pretty good ideas, strategy and tips. I did it for a few weeks/months and I was breaking even. In hindsight, the system that he was teaching may actually have been profitable in the long run. Its a pity his training materials were not very well presented or organized, and I gave up.

I would't consider myself a sucker, but I did pay money to learn. :)

9% a week ? Thats like almost 900% a year with compounding. If I start with USD1000, I would have USD88,320 at the end of the year, and by the end of year 2, I'd have USD780mil. Where do I sign up ?

wlk1 posted:
I did sign up for an online course when I first began in 2010. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to name it here, but the site pops up on the first page if I google 'learn to trade forex'. He teaches how to trade price action with nothing more than candle patterns with support and resistance. I have to admit that it is not a complete waste of time/money. If you really didn't know a thing about trading forex, and needed a primer it would have been a decent place to start.

He had some pretty good ideas, strategy and tips. I did it for a few weeks/months and I was breaking even. In hindsight, the system that he was teaching may actually have been profitable in the long run. Its a pity his training materials were not very well presented or organized, and I gave up.

I would't consider myself a sucker, but I did pay money to learn. :)

9% a week ? Thats like almost 900% a year with compounding. If I start with USD1000, I would have USD88,320 at the end of the year, and by the end of year 2, I'd have USD780mil. Where do I sign up ?

Yah we all need the beginners course on forex. What's your quote about by the way?

@johncarrus : it was something @Donex mentioned. Some guy selling an EA that does 9% a week.

Most of the time, people end up paying alot more that their course fees for their 'beginners course' 😁

I think one of the greatest problems that people new to forex face is the sheer amount of noise/misinformation out there. My favorite : there's a system, strategy or method that can predict where the markets are going. 😂

wlk1 posted:
I did sign up for an online course when I first began in 2010. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to name it here, but the site pops up on the first page if I google 'learn to trade forex'. He teaches how to trade price action with nothing more than candle patterns with support and resistance. I have to admit that it is not a complete waste of time/money. If you really didn't know a thing about trading forex, and needed a primer it would have been a decent place to start.

He had some pretty good ideas, strategy and tips. I did it for a few weeks/months and I was breaking even. In hindsight, the system that he was teaching may actually have been profitable in the long run. Its a pity his training materials were not very well presented or organized, and I gave up.

I would't consider myself a sucker, but I did pay money to learn. :)

I think you're talking about oranges and I was talking about apples. Sure there are some reputable FOREX educators, but what I was addressing are the charlatans that promise unrealistic returns with their manual system or robot.

There are no free lunches ( or dinners or breakfasts ) in the FX markets - trust me, I have been at it for 30 years.....😄

I started trading in 2008 then took a break.. I'm giving up after 2 more years from now.. lol I can work and make more money than doing this.. There are more profitable ways to use my time. But until that 2 year mark.. i'm going balls to the wall to make this work :)

Have you guys seen this guys results?? Unreal!

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/startumbler/johnpaul77/786533

Pretty amazing. Has a large sample size in time and volume.

75% win rate (Avg win 667pips), incredible. DD of 10% incredible. AvgWin > AvgLoss. Besides the unrealistic result which I find hard to believe, albeit might be true, but never heard of the broker. That's not to say they're not legit.

One thing I've noticed any system that is verified with these results inevitably has some obscure broker.

In in my experience, the maths just doesn't add up (In the sense to good to be true). It is possible that he is trading several deviations to the right of the mean, that can happen short term but extremely rare to impossible longer term.

His trades are not private, suppose the only way to see, is keep an eye on any new open trades and see if they are legit, but if there is any fudging going on with the broker then that won't tell you anything either.

If this account is true, then what more can you say than WOW, well done, fantastic results, congratulations, hope it keeps up, nice to see someone raping the big guns at their own game.

Donex the account looks suspect so does the brokers main web site... 🙄