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fxanalytics
Sep 23 2009 at 17:13
17 poster
Thought I'd add a companion thread to the model testing. I'll be resurrecting an old model that I used to trade and recently did some new research on. Initially all the trading will be in demo accounts just to get the feel of it again. As I have time I'll add some notes here and there about the research etc.

I'm still new to this platform so there will be a little learning curve here as well; making sure the platform can see the account etc. The model portfolio's will be listed as 'FXAN x-xx' with the 'x's' equaling dates; i.e. the first portfolio is FXAN 9-09.

bizWiz
Sep 23 2009 at 17:17
397 poster
yes there is some leaning to do, but not too much.

so you'll be posting under your system's discussion once it's added?

Sleep is for the weak.
fxanalytics
Sep 23 2009 at 17:31
17 poster
Well to be honest when I started this, I didn't even realize each system had a discussion thread attached to it LOL! Like I said some 'learning' to do. When the mood hits me I tend to write a lot so I'll leave this active for more generalized research that may or may-not find its way into the actual trade model.

bizWiz
Sep 23 2009 at 17:36
397 poster
yeah, that's one of excellent features here - all of the system discussion is attached to the actual system.

would be interested to read about your research, so please post when you do have the time!

Sleep is for the weak.
fxanalytics
Sep 23 2009 at 19:56
17 poster
It's probably worth noting here that I actually trade with less than 10:1 leverage; that was the lowest the I could choose. I've never seen much evidence that a trader can survive using levels that high for any significant length of time. I try to keep it around 2:1.

bizWiz
Sep 23 2009 at 20:33
397 poster
what kind of returns are you getting with such low leverage?

Sleep is for the weak.
fxanalytics
Sep 23 2009 at 23:33
17 poster
To me returns are secondary to survival; if you build a trade model that will survive five to ten years - through all the volatility and unknowns, you'll see years where you loose money, some where you make a couple of percent and some where you make double digits. The key for me as a trader isn't to make 'x' a year, it's to be able to trade year in and year out.

I realize that's counterintuitive for most traders who set return goals (sometimes monthly) so they can accomplish specific things; it's just my experience that doesn't work over the long term.


bizWiz
Sep 24 2009 at 06:43
397 poster
well it sounds like you do have a plan and you're know what your doing.

the question here as with most think in life, does it work the risk?

so if you're creating 2%-4% return yearly with many hours of work put into it, maybe it would be better to put in a bank.

all comes down to the risk:reward ratio..

Sleep is for the weak.
fxanalytics
Sep 24 2009 at 15:28
17 poster
Well as we've seen again recently there are other risks in the market place. Banks can fail, single asset classes can cripple entire economies. The real attraction for FX and Futures is the diversification it can add to a portfolio; even if you are only generating returns in line with the S&P 500, the lower correlation to those returns helps smooth volatility in the larger holdings. Risk:Reward is often a larger component than the single investment we are looking at; we have to understand how the risk profile in this area affects us in others.

fxanalytics
Sep 24 2009 at 15:37
17 poster
My advice to traders has always been, if you're good at trading, then managing funds. That's how you make money as a trader. Trying to generate unrealistic returns to satisfy your income goals doesn't make sense and it doesn't work. The numbers don't lie; people who use large risk profiles simply don't survive over the long term. Unfortunately, digging this information up isn't always easy in the retail market; it's not in the sectors best 'business' interest to promote the truth. How many brokers do you see touting: 'TRADE WITH US FOR A 95% CERTAINTY THAT YOU WILL LOOSE YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY!' These are the facts, but rarely do you see them presented as such.

The information is out there though if a trader is willing to research and spend some time in a spread sheet.

You can trade for a living; I've done it. You either need a very large porfolio before you begin or you need to manage funds for others. The rest is gambling and hoping for something that isn't supported statistically. If you're going to be in business you have to understand the nature of the job; trading is the same way.

Soap box away now! LOL

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