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If the open trades are locked...
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Elkart

Medlem sedan Aug 01, 2009  941 poster Elkart (Elkart) Dec 26 2009 at 07:56 (editerad Dec 26 2009 at 08:26 )
Then the real story is being hidden. I suggest ignoring those systems. Don't even post in their threads. By doing so we're lending credibility to systems where the author doesn't understand the forex market and the build up in trades will cause the system to fail in due course. If I see an interesting system and the open trades history is locked I dismiss instantly. Not worth looking at.
 
Until fxbook brings in the equity graphs you can't tell what's going. It's no coincidence that the majority of the best performing systems here have theirs locked.

Those type of systems are not long term sustainable, just like the the ones who have trades open for a week to take 5 pips aren't really sustainable.

Sure they might work for a while. But they will fail. The current market conditions are the most volatile we've seen for years. You can throw darts at this market and make money.

Elkart

Medlem sedan Aug 01, 2009  941 poster Elkart (Elkart) Dec 26 2009 at 08:46 (editerad Dec 26 2009 at 08:46 )
The concept is well known to not work. It's called the fat tail of distribution: Here's an exert and a link:


'Applications in economics

In finance, fat tails are considered undesirable because of the additional risk they imply. For example, an investment strategy may have an expected return, after one year, that is five times its standard deviation. Assuming a normal distribution, the likelihood of its failure (negative return) is less than one in a million; in practice, it may be higher. Normal distributions that emerge in finance generally do so because the factors influencing an asset's value or price are mathematically 'well-behaved', and the central limit theorem provides for such a distribution. However, traumatic 'real-world' events (such as an oil shock, a large corporate bankruptcy, or an abrupt change in a political situation) are usually not mathematically well-behaved.

Fat tails in markets return distributions also have some behavioral origins (investor excessive optimism or pessimism leading to large market moves) and are therefore studied in behavioral finance.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_tail

Elkart

Medlem sedan Aug 01, 2009  941 poster Elkart (Elkart) Dec 26 2009 at 08:59 (editerad Dec 26 2009 at 09:17 )
My point is basically this.

If it's scalping system (spot the small tp's) it's not realistic to run it successfully live. In fact the brokers will flag your account most probably and if I can quote a a friend who used to work back office and now owns a brokerage 'make it very difficult for you'. Any MT broker can add volatility to your feed at will.

If it's a fat tail system (spot the locked open trades) it's not long term sustainable as pointed out above.

Avoid systems that rely on these concepts and avoid people that try and sell you these type systems. Especially if they post a fake box to back it up. Some of them might have the best intentions, but if they are obviously oblivious to the risk then you want to stay away from it. Take the $90 and go have a few beers, at least you'll get something for your money. Most likely they don't have the best intentions and are well aware of the problems but will try sell you the system anyway.

cateful

Medlem sedan Dec 19, 2009  87 poster Fill or Kill (cateful) Dec 26 2009 at 09:29
I agree.

Anyone who's interested in buying a profitable EA, here is a question you want to ask before you swipe your credit card: Would anyone sell you the goose that lays golden eggs? Maybe the eggs, but never the goose.

Do your own work, put in a few years in this business and you have greater chance of seeing the light. Try read a lot. A LOT. Read the news, read the industry journals, read The Economists, read the well-known trading books, read the Fed reports, read the NFP numbers, read the prices, read everything you can get your hands on. And maybe then you will have this bulb lighting up in your head.

bizWiz

Medlem sedan Aug 06, 2009  397 poster bizWiz Dec 26 2009 at 09:41
elkart, great posts! this is very useful information and should be read by anyone looking to buy/lease a system.

i would like to add that even if you think you found a good system, always assume that it can fail, so start small and build your account from there.

also another important aspect is the system's vendor - it will help you judge the system if you know who you're dealing with, and if something doesn't add up - you can always move to the next one.


Sleep is for the weak.
bizWiz

Medlem sedan Aug 06, 2009  397 poster bizWiz Dec 26 2009 at 09:43

cateful posted:
  Anyone who's interested in buying a profitable EA, here is a question you want to ask before you swipe your credit card: Would anyone sell you the goose that lays golden eggs? Maybe the eggs, but never the goose.


too true! smiley

Sleep is for the weak.
maanoo

Medlem sedan Dec 25, 2009  11 poster Forexellent (maanoo) Dec 26 2009 at 11:14
Well using an EA to trade for you is a risky thing, I personally used one of these and at first I had some gains in my account but after a while it started losing all the profits it made.

What I mean is that trading with an EA might be profitable for a short term and after that you'll have to tweak it to the current market condition and so on this basis.

I was and still studying price action trading for the last 3 years and I'm trading for a living, you can check out my demo account results which I started it a few weeks ago, the most important thing to remember when trading is risk management I personally don't trade more than 2% per a trade and most of the time only 1%.

Have a good day.

The trend is your friend.
pc8multifx

Medlem sedan Sep 04, 2009  879 poster pc8multifx (pc8multifx) Dec 26 2009 at 11:52
Since i don't sell EAs, but trade managed account with them, there is a good reason for locking the open trades. I just don't wanna give the lurkers here an insight view of the successful strategy.
 There was a lot of work to do to make these EAs full adaptive to all market conditions , more than 3 years 3 people worked on it.
My demo portfolio was made to show interested investors the hypothetical trade performance under 'live' conditions. They never ask about the logic behind it.
Nobody asks for the construction plan of the engine when buying a car....smiley

Elkart

Medlem sedan Aug 01, 2009  941 poster Elkart (Elkart) Dec 26 2009 at 13:11
No, but they do get shown an engine most of the time, so we can at least tell it's got one.

Elkart

Medlem sedan Aug 01, 2009  941 poster Elkart (Elkart) Dec 26 2009 at 13:26
It's always possible i guess to give someone a invitation link, but for me I just write the system off. Most probably it's a fat tail system.


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