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Random or not?

speki
Mar 18 2011 at 10:11
735 inlägg
Ah, getting even better. So it's randomly changing between phases of randomness and non-randomness.
All I can tell is, is the position going my way or is it not. Nothing else, really.
Sometimes I just don't understand how I even survived more than two years in the meat mincer. Yeah, must be luck. L-U-C-K.

All right, TGIF and let's play music - - - - - - dealers keep dealin', thieves keep thievin', market keeps bustin', serial account blowers keep blowin' that's the way it's stayin' baby yeah


Surround yourself with people whose eyes light up when they see you and who have no agenda for your reform.
James_Bond
Mar 21 2011 at 08:06
556 inlägg
After some thinkning, isn't random changes of random and non random movements are random by definition? Quite an irony 😄

If the above is correct, then markets are indeed random.
Alanfx1
Mar 22 2011 at 01:52
104 inlägg

speki posted:
    Well you can see that random charts look like real ones. And you can see that many of the technical analysis tools can be applied to random charts too - do you think my analysis above is nonsense? The oversold, the divergence, the support, the double bottom, the Fibo 50, the channel - they're all there and trust me, the chart is randomly generated.

So how can you tell it's not random? You just know, that's it? 😁
Hi speki,
I believe that the Average True Range aplied to the random genereted chart will show us less randoness.
If ATR is less random we could use it to set take profit and stop loss in a random and in a true chart.
Anyway the real and the random prices moves away from the oppening price.
We could use this in our favor with ATR.
The account balance is not random before we enter in a trade, so money management will work the same way for random and no-random charts (prices) and we must use it anyway.
Time is not random, so we could use T and 2T for trading.
I - Enter the trade
II- If in T we are in profit let the trade open as long as T2, if not close.
III- In T2 as the price moves away from the previous prices we must be near breakeven or in profit. Close the trade in T2.
Time and Risk Management is the key for any system because they are not random.
Keep going with your great ideias.
This one you gave us is very cool.
Best regards.

Tradingboy


I Trade You Profit. Forex is suitable for smart and patient people...
James_Bond
Mar 22 2011 at 07:51
556 inlägg

Alanfx1 posted:
    
The account balance is not random before we enter in a trade, so money management will work the same way for random and no-random charts (prices) and we must use it anyway.
Time is not random, so we could use T and 2T for trading.
I - Enter the trade
II- If in T we are in profit let the trade open as long as T2, if not close.
III- In T2 as the price moves away from the previous prices we must be near breakeven or in profit. Close the trade in T2.
Time and Risk Management is the key for any system because they are not random.


I think it's easier said than done 😄

But I would be very interested to see how you can profitably trade a random chart. Not pseudo-trade-after-the-fact trading, but in a real-time environment, or with a programmed logic which will be profitable on every test run. Are you up for the challenge? 😉
Alanfx1
Mar 23 2011 at 12:05
104 inlägg
Hi wilkinson,

Everything is easier said than done. (if the person has voice)
The future is unknown, so the results of our actions will be a bit random.
The sucess of any trader in the world depends on how he/she survives in the market without knowing the future.
So every trader in the world the winners and the losers make trades in the random future and we are all already up for the challenge of the markert (life).

Best regards

Tradingboy.
I Trade You Profit. Forex is suitable for smart and patient people...
James_Bond
Mar 23 2011 at 12:28
556 inlägg

Alanfx1 posted:
    Hi wilkinson,

Everything is easier said than done. (if the person has voice)
The future is unknown, so the results of our actions will be a bit random.
The sucess of any trader in the world depends on how he/she survives in the market without knowing the future.
So every trader in the world the winners and the losers make trades in the random future and we are all already up for the challenge of the markert (life).

Best regards

Tradingboy.

Well said.

Thinking more about it, since forex is a zero sum market, it doesn't matter if the price is random or not. If one losses money, someone must be winning it.
halionfx
Mar 24 2011 at 21:57
36 inlägg
yes. but not everyone is trading for profit... remember that.

regards
Alanfx1
Mar 24 2011 at 22:44
104 inlägg
WHO???
I Trade You Profit. Forex is suitable for smart and patient people...
speki
Mar 25 2011 at 06:43
735 inlägg
I imagine the member means some transactions take place only because someone needs foreign currency. Like the japanese bought Yen to bring funds home after the earthquake. Or when banks/insurers needed AUD after the floods to pay the claims.
So not 100 % of the FX market is speculative.
Surround yourself with people whose eyes light up when they see you and who have no agenda for your reform.
speki
Mar 25 2011 at 08:39
735 inlägg
It's also funny that broker time differences can result in very different candles, or candlestick formations (and it's not only about differences in broker price feeds)

Look at the last dozen candles, they're different because the broker times are different. Moreover, week starts Monday 0000 GMT or Sunday evening? So which candles can you trust? Just some food for thought.

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>

Bilagor:

Surround yourself with people whose eyes light up when they see you and who have no agenda for your reform.
halionfx
Mar 25 2011 at 12:40
36 inlägg
James_Bond
Mar 27 2011 at 08:54
556 inlägg
speki posted:
    It's also funny that broker time differences can result in very different candles, or candlestick formations (and it's not only about differences in broker price feeds)

Look at the last dozen candles, they're different because the broker times are different. Moreover, week starts Monday 0000 GMT or Sunday evening? So which candles can you trust? Just some food for thought.


As I said in a different topic:
'To avoid the differences between brokers, one should ignore the timing of the trades, and use high and lows of candles instead the open-close.

I think in such way, the charts will be identical, only displaced, according to the time difference between brokers.'

The above would give us, in my opinion, an absolute market image, ignoring any broker time and/or market opening/closing times differences
Alanfx1
Mar 28 2011 at 00:01
104 inlägg

wilkinson posted:
    
speki posted:
    It's also funny that broker time differences can result in very different candles, or candlestick formations (and it's not only about differences in broker price feeds)

Look at the last dozen candles, they're different because the broker times are different. Moreover, week starts Monday 0000 GMT or Sunday evening? So which candles can you trust? Just some food for thought.


As I said in a different topic:
'To avoid the differences between brokers, one should ignore the timing of the trades, and use high and lows of candles instead the open-close.

I think in such way, the charts will be identical, only displaced, according to the time difference between brokers.'

The above would give us, in my opinion, an absolute market image, ignoring any broker time and/or market opening/closing times differences


Hi wilkinson,
I like to use Point & Figure, to me it's better than others charts.
It's easier to see the market direction and volatility.
And it filters the noise pretty well I think.
My tool to make Point & Figure is Cute Point & Figure indicator v1.2 for Meta Trader 4.
Best regards.

Tradingboy


I Trade You Profit. Forex is suitable for smart and patient people...
James_Bond
Mar 28 2011 at 08:57
556 inlägg

Alanfx1 posted:
    
wilkinson posted:
    
speki posted:
    It's also funny that broker time differences can result in very different candles, or candlestick formations (and it's not only about differences in broker price feeds)

Look at the last dozen candles, they're different because the broker times are different. Moreover, week starts Monday 0000 GMT or Sunday evening? So which candles can you trust? Just some food for thought.


As I said in a different topic:
'To avoid the differences between brokers, one should ignore the timing of the trades, and use high and lows of candles instead the open-close.

I think in such way, the charts will be identical, only displaced, according to the time difference between brokers.'

The above would give us, in my opinion, an absolute market image, ignoring any broker time and/or market opening/closing times differences


Hi wilkinson,
I like to use Point & Figure, to me it's better than others charts.
It's easier to see the market direction and volatility.
And it filters the noise pretty well I think.
My tool to make Point & Figure is Cute Point & Figure indicator v1.2 for Meta Trader 4.
Best regards.

Tradingboy


Know of it, but never used it.
Can you show some examples of point and figure charts? I wonder if those are different using a random feed or not.
Alanfx1
Mar 28 2011 at 11:30
104 inlägg
Hi wilkinson,
The Cute Point & Figure indicator v1.1 is free for download:

https://www.forexpnf.info/mt4-point-and-figure-indicator/downloads/

I believe you will like it.
Show me your test when finished.

Best regards.

Tradingboy
I Trade You Profit. Forex is suitable for smart and patient people...
James_Bond
Mar 28 2011 at 13:20
556 inlägg

Alanfx1 posted:
    Hi wilkinson,
The Cute Point & Figure indicator v1.1 is free for download:

https://www.forexpnf.info/mt4-point-and-figure-indicator/downloads/

I believe you will like it.
Show me your test when finished.

Best regards.

Tradingboy


Speki does the tests, not myself, so hopefully he can check it out.

Can you quickly explain to me how do you trade point and figure charts? It's all gibberish to me:

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>

Isn't that just another form to draw candles? I'm not sure how that would provide me new information.

Bilagor:

James_Bond
Mar 29 2011 at 09:48
556 inlägg
Tried attaching the point and figure to the random chart, however getting no result.

Anyone?
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