Daily FX Price & Time USD Continues To Frustrate - Does it Ever!
• USD/CADhas pulled back from the decade highs recorded last week • Our near-term trend bias is positive in funds while above 1.2980 • A move through 1.3225 is needed to set up a new leg higher in the exchange rate • A minor turn window is seen tomorrow • A daily below the 2nd square root relationship of last week’s at 1.2980 would turn us negative on USD/CAD
USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.2980
Last Monday I went Long USDCAD @ approx. 1.30000 expecting it to hit at least the 61.8 fibo level which is 1.34570 on the monthly chart. It opened up above the 350 degree angle on the weekly chart which was support. All the technical indicators were positive, all the analysts were pointing out the weakness of CAD and to stay Long USD. Since then it has retraced to 1.29428 which is support on the 4 hour chart next support is 1.28554 on the daily chart. This morning I expected it to go lower and hit that support as just like when I went Long last Monday that was the closest level.
The 161.8 extension level on the last monthly candle is 1.34895! Why retrace when it was so close to taking out that level. Not only that why retrace below the 100% Level of 1.30673 which was last made 1 March 2009? Doesn't make sense!!!!
When I went long USDCAD Everything was in my favour - fundamentals, technical, and Expert opinion!!!! Price of Oil was still going down, rumour of interest rates in US going up, Canadian economy on the brink. I took everything into consideration. What sealed it for me was that the price opened up above the 350 degree line on the weekly/Monthly chart.
The pas 2 weeks have made a mockery of the market!!! One thing to consider though is this how many of those FXperts were really long and how many of them were trying to mislead small traders like me and you.
If bankers and the like don't want small traders making money they shouldn't haven't opened up the market to the likes of us in the first place. People's livelihoods are on the line and if you're like me you'll be taking it very seriously and trying to learn as much as possible.
The dollar edged higher than the Canadian dollar on Thursday following encouraging U.S data which had fueled the possibility of a potential September Federal Reserve rate hike as well as worries over the devaluation of the Chinese currency calming down. USD/CAD had touched 1.3064 for early U.S trade on Thursday making it the session high. The pair following that located consolidation at 1.3051.
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