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Calculating the systemic risk of a EA before demo/live launch

Apr 14, 2013 at 13:49
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9 Replies
Medlem sedan Oct 08, 2011   41 inlägg
Apr 14, 2013 at 13:49
Hi everyone,

So, i am currently working on multiple automated strategies and will launch some of them in the near future. My problem is :

How can you assess the systemic risk of 1 EA performing over multiple currencies when in your backtests you can only see what would have happened on 1 currency?

Let's say my EA trades on 10 currencies. How can i know that the total drawdown at X time will not be superior than my total profit at X time?

If in the backtests it's saying for ex: 20% drawdown and 100% profit. If you apply the consecutive loosing trades multiplied by the number of currencies you are trading, so basically adding all the drawdown and measuring if profits are still gonna be available to not let your system crash.

If you understand what i mean, please let me know on how we could calculate this more than IMPORTANT variable for any strategy.

Thanks !
Medlem sedan May 11, 2012   17 inlägg
Apr 15, 2013 at 11:15 (redigerad Apr 15, 2013 at 11:21)
See https://www.strategyquant.com/eaanalyzer/ , good free tool for analysis.
Medlem sedan Oct 08, 2011   41 inlägg
Apr 19, 2013 at 23:55
Thanks for the link. I wil check the program but i think it still does not help me to know if my EA will or not basically crash the account once i will run it on multiple pairs during similar market conditions... will it?
Medlem sedan Jun 18, 2012   8 inlägg
Apr 24, 2013 at 07:19
Thats your job. Just run backtests for each currency and see what you would have netted for each month - Run backtest on all 10 currencies. import those tests into myfxbook then add net gain/loss for each month. (ex: add all april results together) - then you'' have a pretty decent idea of how many will be in DD any particular month and what to expect as a net result.
Medlem sedan Oct 08, 2011   41 inlägg
Apr 24, 2013 at 15:18
You said import into myfxbook ? Is that the strategy tester or how can myfxbook help me i'm not aware of this function..

Also, adding drawdown with drawdown and profits with profits is not correct. SO your method can not be used if wanting to have a profesionnal backtest. Let's say you have 2 currencies in drawdown at the same time, you cannot just simply add the profits that wil result afterwards because those results are based on single currency drawdown and not taking in consideration the other currency's drawdown which means your money management should have changed but here in the calculation you don't take that in consideration which therefore is incomplete...

This is very important because as a full system, we need to know the bahaviour of the other factors such as the money management .
Medlem sedan Nov 21, 2011   1718 inlägg
Apr 28, 2013 at 18:24
This is very simple, It takes 2 minutes to do it.

Step 1
Backtest 1 pair: you get the first drawdown.
Use this pair as reference.

Step 2
Use average correlation to that pair to calculate estimated drawdrown

Step 3
Do it for every pair you wish to trade and add them to the drawdown you backtested.
Medlem sedan Oct 08, 2011   41 inlägg
Apr 29, 2013 at 17:21
SO you use the average corrolation function in order to get the drawdown of other currencies on your strategy?
Medlem sedan Nov 21, 2011   1718 inlägg
Apr 29, 2013 at 18:05
wahjay posted:
SO you use the average corrolation function in order to get the drawdown of other currencies on your strategy?

Well, this can give you a quick estimated drawdown for your case.

Also, note that a EA is expected to perform for a particular pair and I will not recommend to use it for 10 currencies at a time.
Medlem sedan Oct 08, 2011   41 inlägg
Apr 30, 2013 at 20:52
I see.

Well, when manually trading a specific strategy you do trade on several pairs up to about 20 pairs max right? So i don't see why a succcessful strategy could not be traded with the EA on multiple currencies... :)
Medlem sedan Nov 21, 2011   1718 inlägg
Apr 30, 2013 at 21:16
Well, it's up to you off course.
If you think trading 20 pairs at a time is good strategy.. that's your point of view, depending on what does your EA.

By the way, I don't trade 20 pairs at a time, I'd rather to focus a specific currency when one is getting interesting.

When you have focus the good horse... then trade it at a right time. : )
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