Inari's Inlägg - sida 2

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jul 03, 2015 at 22:14

Agree Victoria - all we are seeing to day is a bit of Yen strength - next week will bring a change though :)Sean

Cable - where's it going next? på Erfaren Traders Jul 03, 2015 at 19:09

A quickly reversed small spike up this morning on the release of the services PMI to 1.5645 but then back to the 1.5620 area where the Pair has been more or less stuck - so pretty lifeless and with the US closed today - this is going to be a quiet afternoon - The Greek referendum result will be the next catalyst for a move - and who knows where that will take us :)Sean

Cable - where's it going next? på Erfaren Traders Jul 02, 2015 at 06:24

Well a bit of weakness today for Cable after the Greek default - but no great panic - looks like we will see a softish range trade with the bias to the downside for the rest of the week unless there are ant news or data surprises.Sean

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 30, 2015 at 20:01

So as expected no extension for Greece and some new proposals to be delivered by Greece and discussed tomorrow afternoonSo whether you call it a default or a delay it looks like it is happeningSean

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 30, 2015 at 19:59

Interesting day - lots of volatility and the Eur/Usd moving down as reality starts to take hold at last...And interesting comments by the Germans - cancel the referendum as a precursor to talks - so much for democracyThis shows how much fear the Eurozone cronies have of people powerSean

Cable - where's it going next? på Erfaren Traders Jun 30, 2015 at 13:44

Outside of the Greek issue - then Sterling is better placed to rise against most currencies - an early interest rate rise in the US could scupper that and at the minute it does look like the US hawks will act first - but against the Euro, GBP risk to the downside is limited.Sean

Cable - where's it going next? på Erfaren Traders Jun 30, 2015 at 10:24

As the MD of an algo firm that trades GBP/USD and also GBP/JPY I though I would open up this thread to get a discussion going on Sterling to see if any agreed consensus on the near and medium term future can be derived...Today the shadow of Greece and the resulting uncertainty hangs over the Euro market and that will have its potential effect on GBP as well... The possible referendum and the possible default in the meantime are all adding to an already uncertain situation.Without further updates over the weekend it looks like a weak open for GBP/USD on Monday Not much in the way of market data...

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 30, 2015 at 06:38

Yes agree and whats more if (and probably when the default happens) after today's bounce - its not really priced as the Eur/Usd is at levels where agreement was still on the cards - the default announcement will happen when the market volume is at its thinnest so we could see a big move to the south - perhaps prompting Asia markets to follow suit when they get going - 200 pips or more could disappear swiftly...Sean

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 30, 2015 at 06:32

Looking at a trading volume ladder on Hotspot FXI this afternoon it is interesting and pretty obvious the euro supporting intervention that is taking place. It is probably augmented by some of the algo-systems out there - 12:55 eastern and 13:30 eastern are two good examples where volumes suddenly surged and the euro shot up. Note the times - lunch time US and close of play in UK - strategically timed for most impact when traders are more likely to be away from their desks. But the steady falls should win out in the end. It remind me of the vain attempts of 'Nick Leeson' (aka Ewan McGr...

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 30, 2015 at 06:26

Indeed the SNB must be about out of reserves to buy Euros by now :)Sean

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 30, 2015 at 06:23

So to put my money where my mouth is - going short at 1.12 let see what happens :)One can help thinking the EUR/USD is being fattened up for the slaughterI am sure Mr Soros, with his fond memories of GBP in 1992 is on the sidelines salivating :)Sean

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 29, 2015 at 14:55

Interesting moves on EUR/USD today - trying to filling the overnight gap but it reeks of some central bank intervention - we already heard about the SNB move but it appears that something else may be afoot...The reasons are clear - what we are witnessing is the start of the unraveling of the Euro - yes Greece is a small player but the inability of the larger members to save face is worrying...The biggest worry is the precedent of a referendum - where the people will decide - irrespective of the result if the concept of an anti-austerity referendum expands to other member states then the founda...

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 29, 2015 at 06:38

FXCM Open - but EUR/USD quoted at 1.1004/06

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 29, 2015 at 06:34

And it's official - it's a Bank Holiday in Greece tomorrow - Would hate to be an ATM over there right now

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 28, 2015 at 13:48

So an olive branch from the ECB in terms of funding to the Greek banks at least for Monday - but after Tuesday more extensions fly in the face of the ECB charters... We will see...Sean

EUR/USD på Erfaren Traders Jun 28, 2015 at 13:44

My thoughts in this ever changing debate, for what it is worth, is that There will have to be some capital controls imposed by Greece on its people now that it seems likely that the ECB will no longer provide the necessary liquidity.Greece will default on its IMF loan repayment on Tuesday eveningThe Greek people will face hardship this week and that may influence the NO vote come Sunday - even though the vote my no longer be relevant.As for the Eur/UsdFor a few weeks it has started to build up a resilience to the Greek news and counter news stories...Now however actuals are starting to materia...

Im an investor. How to find a consistent traders? på Erfaren Traders Jun 28, 2015 at 13:38

There is a line you can cross between investing and speculating (gambling)Managed FX as an investment should look to return 25-40% per year after fees with draw downs of less than 3-4%Max gearing used should be no more than 3:1 and a max of 2:1 is preferable.Here are the simple sums (no gearing)Two trades per day average win +25 average loss -15 Hit Rate of 70%assume 20 trading days per month that a total of 480 trades per yearper month 28 wins of +25 (average) = +700 pipsper month 12 losses of -15 (average) = - 180 pipsthat's a gross total of 520 pipsAssume a USD account trading say EUR/U...

Managed Accounts på Allmänt Jun 28, 2015 at 09:49

Hi @Paracelsus66 I agree - when I look at the individual trades on the various the systems on this site there are very few that I would back with money - most use excessive leverage that will decimate them over time. It's an example of what needs to be achieved to in order to have a smooth and profitable return from FX markets.The figures above are about averages - the first question is could it be done manually - and to achieve these as figures averaged over a year the answer is yes - of course it will not be a straight line but the ride should be fairly smooth. I have been fortunate to w...

Elixir på Trading System Jun 28, 2015 at 08:53

Hi Billy,I appreciate your comments, the system operates different strategies depending on what it deems the underlying market condition to be i.e. ranging , trending etc. It applies different entry and exit rules and set max draw down on a trade by trade basis. It downloads data on a tick by tick basis and from time to time it will identify a market moving from a trending to a ranging scenario and vice-a-versa. At this point it will then re-access the profit and draw down limits and apply them to the trade in progress. The exit strategies are keep on our servers and not place visibly in the m...

Managed Accounts på Allmänt Jun 28, 2015 at 06:39

There is a line you can cross between investing and speculating (gambling)Managed FX as an investment should look to return 25-40% per year after fees with draw downs of less than 3-4%Max leverage used should be no more than 4:1 and a ma of 2:1 is preferable.Here are the simple sumsTwo trades per day average win +25 aver loss -15 Hit Rate of 70%assume 20 trading days per month that a total of 480 trades per yearper month 28 wins of +25 (average) = +700 pipsper month 12 losses of -15 (average) = - 180 pipsthat's a gross total of 520 pipsAssume a USD account trading say EUR/USD and Cable the...

EURUSD	1.0771	GBPUSD	1.25793	AUDUSD	0.66263
USDJPY	153.784	USDCAD	1.36756	USDCHF	0.90578

Inlägg av Inari