minosd777's Inlägg - sida 2

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 23, 2012 at 09:36

A lot of EUR negative news this weekend, but my experience tells me that when the news gets to negative a reversal is close...so i don't trust the fx this week..my EUR/CAD sl is on be so I don't risk anything..Beware of big reversals in EUR/$, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of profit taking and a big short squeeze very soon, altough we all hope it will get to 1.18-1.15 before that happens ;)

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 21, 2012 at 09:35

In my opinion a trader always makes mistakes, it's his job to make more good decisions than bad ones! Bad decisions are unavoidable! Thinking about past trades that you should've kept open is just looking at the wrong problem..those were winners and you had to close them to take profit! Of course I understand you want to make to most out of all trades but that's simply impossible, otherwise you will be the richest man on earth within 10 years, just try to imagine the probability of that happening...also, don't overly rely on a system to trade and not think, very trade is differ...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 18, 2012 at 15:40

I just see somebody vouched me: what is it? Can I see who vouched me and how can I vouch somebody?mino

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 18, 2012 at 10:37

It's not easy the last two weeks to find a good trade..a lot of range trading and choppy action, a lot of my trades got exited early don't want to take risks, but entered big know on EUR/AUD short tp 1.1810, entered also on EUR/CAD short, but already closed 2/5 of position to minimize risks

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 12, 2012 at 12:17

Mino, did I get it right? You bought gbp and eur against aud in eur/aud and gbp/aud or you sold eur and bbp against aud? cause if you buy aud it is not speculative me think. it is along the trend.I sold the EUR and the GBP against the AUD, but clearly not such a good idea, Eur/AUD stop was cleared on be, but the GBP/AUD looks like it's going up, this pair is very volatile I don't like that and is hard to predict so i think i'm just going to let the stop in place, I can take a loss, for the moment I will not be shorting EUR/AUD anymore, I think a big pullback i coming, peop...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 11, 2012 at 11:07

I opened a speculative position on the GBP/AUD this week and on the EUR/AUD, mainly for the same reason as last week: I think the AUD is going to stay stronger then the GBP and EUR. Both currencies can be oversold, but I don't think we have seen the bottem yet.I also opened some EUR/$ short en some $/CHF long, no hedging, the $/CHF looks like it's going to break higther, Momentarily my positions are small so I don't place stops, besides the volatility is also very low so I'm sure I can sell my positions on time if they go against me

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 05, 2012 at 14:12

The rate cut had a bigger impact than I anticipated..I could have made a lot more if I kept my positions open, but no regrets :)The EUR/$ looks very weak now, the trend is in place: 1. A rate cut is always negative for a currency 2. The Italian 10-year yield is back above 6%, this will weigh on the pair 3. another rate cut in China 4. Continued bad economic news out of EuropeTaking all this together I don't see how the pair can rise, I expect at least a test of the pervious low of januari at 1.2280, below that there is not much resistance until the midpoint of the all-time range at 1.2130 ...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 05, 2012 at 10:21

My experience tells me that the market can move in both direction immediately after the news, it's better to wait one hour to let the big boys determine what the real impact of 'the decisions' will be, if there is any trend comming out of that I will be happy to ride the trend but with tight SL and small position. My week has been good, yours too, no need to take unnecessary risks

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 04, 2012 at 20:51

Yes your GBP/AUD trade is really great, if there is any rebounce maybe you can consider ading to your short? I could not trade a position for such a long time, the max i did was 2 weeks with my EUR/$ trade, but at that time i was so sure that the EUR was heading down that i opened big, with no stop. My E/A is going to be closed very soon, i want to lock profitsTrading before news is more of a gamble I think, people ( and myself) underestimate the impact of news, we think that the big boys made sure that every news is already priced in but that's not true. I am pretty sure, whatever happen...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 04, 2012 at 12:30

Yes tomorrow will be a big day for our trades: the ECB rate decision and the BOE further QE decisiob will both have a major impact on the market, maybe I will close my trades before the news, 'cause i don't like when positions are open, they can be wiped out in 10 minutes like 2 weeks ago...it's better to wait and see what direction the market will be heading to once that the storm calmed down

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 02, 2012 at 09:15

The AUD seems strong, I will focus on that this week, maybe by adding to my EUR/AUD short or buying the AUD/$ pair, but only after the rate-cut decision of the RBA tomorrow.I keep my EUR/YEN long with a stop at 100.30, I think this is a good stop-level since its just beneath the low of this morning (I'm lucky!). This trade is certainly a coinflip..Don't you think you opened to many positions Chikot? If the YEN moves against you you will loose on 4 or 5 trades, if it goes with you you will have big gains for sure. Did you still use the ema crosses to take your decisions?Walker: why is i...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 01, 2012 at 13:23

CHikot: we will see next week what the AUD does..the BOE is expected to inject another 50B in the UK economy, this is negative for the GBP. In China there is bad news about the economy not growing fast enough for our likes :), this should be bearish for the AUD. The impact of both news should be visible on the GBP/AUD: if the AUD goes down more than the GBP, the GBP/AUD will rise, if the 50B news weighs more, than the GBP/AUD will go down. We will have to see how the markets picks up the China news, it can react very negatively by selling the AUD, CAD and NZD very aggresively, maybe the is an ...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 01, 2012 at 10:10

The trend is certainly in your direction, just take a look on the weekly, for this trend to end it will have to go up at least above 1.65 :D and that is very far away, it should go to the previous low at 1.45 if the AUD continues to strenghten. For next week and the weeks after that I will try to reinforce my EUR/AUD short, at least if the positive momentum continues, nothing is less certain I'm also going to open a second FXCM demo account to try a different trading style with position building and swing trading to try to capture swings of a few hundred pips on big positions, it's goi...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 01, 2012 at 10:03

I did not get it but what I meant is that each tarde is separate and is managed separately and I do not close one trade to close loss of another trade cause any running trade can be a big winner. say if aud/jpy gets to 87.00-88.00 level again I would get 4-4.5% on this running position and if gbp/aud gets another 400 pips it would be 1.5-1.6% on remaining position. That's I think what most traders do: they have a few very big winning positions in the year 'cause they managed it good and let the profits run in their favor, on the other hand they can have a mirriad of fai...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jul 01, 2012 at 09:56

Those guys don't make it :DI always try to hedge a part of my open positions, that way I'm sure that I can minimize my losses, even if my gains will not be as big. For example you can Buy the EUR/$ ( this is the main position ) and you can buy the $/CHF to offset any losses, since the $/CHF is (most of the times) a little less volatile then the EUR/$. The important thing is to manage your stops every day and to close one of both position in time to not break even. This is the way i sometimes trade

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jun 29, 2012 at 21:44

Too bad for your results Chikot, but as you say this is only a bump in the road that may eventually lead you to FX successes. You are right to see this as a long term game, nothing comes easy and certainly not succesfully trade fx. Continue trading, practicing and perfecting your art and subconscious, 'cause there is were the real knowledge will be after 5 or 10 years of trading this market. For next week I will be looking for longs if we dont get any bad news over the weekend, the AUD/YEN looks very promising, the AUD/$ too, the EUR/AUD looks promising to hit the previous low at least. Th...

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jun 29, 2012 at 11:26

3 of my 4 trades were stopped out yesterday after the news of the EU-summit results...it's always more prudent to use stops when important economic news is due to come out. In this case i did good to put the stops closely to limit the loses

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jun 28, 2012 at 09:40

Your going live already? Good luck then! I hope we can continue to follow your trades or will you close your page for public?One question about the EMA: does it makes any difference on which timeframe you look at them?

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jun 27, 2012 at 12:44

So what periods do you use for the EMA's and what ema crosses are you looking for?

"Just Oil" på Erfaren Traders Jun 26, 2012 at 13:45

Somtimes I look for the Moving Averages to show me were i can expect support and resistance, but I never look for candlestick patterns, most of the time i take my trades based on simple chart drawings and speculative positions when I feel there is a strong momentum going on. But I realise I have to broaden my horizon and learn some new techniques. Tell me: on what basis did you took the $/Yen and $/CHF long position?

EURUSD	1.07599	GBPUSD	1.25452	AUDUSD	0.66091
USDJPY	153.053	USDCAD	1.3685	USDCHF	0.90475

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